The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Sunday, March 15, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

* In WC Northwest divisional games, teams playing a third straight home game have their totals go Over at a 32-13 (71.1%) rate in the last 45 instances.
System Match (PLAY OVER): MIN-OKC (o/u at 225.5)

* Teams that won their previous game but didn’t cover the spread have been bad in their zero rest follow-up game recently, going 61-72 SU and 46-85-2 ATS (35.1%) since the start of the 2022-23 season.
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (+8.5 vs POR)

* Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more as divisional underdogs are 11-44 SU and 18-33-4 ATS (35.3%) since April 2022.
System Match (FADE): INDIANA (+6.5 at MIL) 

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures.

* NBA teams playing on the road in One Day Rest scenario are 225-287 SU but 286-218-8 ATS vs. teams in 2 Days Rest games over the last four seasons
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (+8.5 at OKC)

* NBA teams playing at home in a 2 Days Rest scenario were 55-31 Over the total vs. teams in 3rd Straight Road games since the start of last season
System Match (PLAY OVER): MIN-OKC (o/u at 225.5)

* NBA teams playing on the road in a One Day Rest scenario are 60-50 SU and 64-44 ATS vs. teams in back-to-back away/home games over the last two seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA (+6.5 at MIL), UTAH (+3.5 at SAC)

* INDIANA is 14-27 SU and 10-30-1 ATS playing in 4th in 6 Days games since November 2024
Trend Match (FADE): INDIANA (+6.5 at MIL)

* INDIANA is 16-5 Over the total playing on the road in 4th in 6 Days games since October 2024
* MILWAUKEE is 22-8 Under the total (73.3%) vs. teams that currently have losing records
Trends Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in IND-MIL (o/u at 235.5)

* UTAH is 104-75 Over the total playing in One Day Rest games since November 2022
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): UTA-SAC (o/u at 233.5)

* DALLAS is just 2-18 SU and 5-15 ATS (25%) vs. winning teams on the road this season
* CLEVELAND is 8-3 SU but 2-9 ATS (20%) as a double-digit home favorite this season
Trends Match: 1 FADE OF DALLAS, 1 FADE OF CLEVELAND

* GOLDEN STATE is 137-103 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since December 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): GSW-NYK (o/u at 218.5)

* DETROIT is 15-4 Under the total (78.9%) as a favorite of -1.5 to -5 points this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): DET-TOR (o/u at 223.5)

* NBA teams playing on the road in a One Day Rest scenario were 70-56 SU and 70-55 ATS vs. teams in back-to-back home games since the start of last season
* PHILADELPHIA is 10-3 SU and 11-2 ATS (84.6%) on the back end of back-to-back games
Trends Match: 1 PLAY ON PORTLAND, 1 PLAY ON PHILADELPHIA

* PORTLAND is 20-7 Over the total (74.1%) as a favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): POR-PHI (o/u at 228.5)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(561) MINNESOTA at (562) OKLAHOMA CITY
* MINNESOTA is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings with OKC
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (+8.5 at OKC)

(563) INDIANA at (564) MILWAUKEE
* Underdogs are on a 4-1 ATS surge in the IND-MIL divisional series
Trend Match (PLAY): INDIANA (+6.5 at MIL)

(565) DALLAS at (566) CLEVELAND
* Road teams are 7-3 SU and 9-1 ATS in the last 10 of the DAL-CLE non-conference set
Trend Match (PLAY): DALLAS (+15.5 at CLE)

(567) DETROIT at (568) TORONTO
* DETROIT is 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in the last seven games versus Toronto
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-4.5 at TOR)

(569) PORTLAND at (570) PHILADELPHIA
* Over the total is 11-3 in the Trail Blazers-76ers cross-country set since 2019
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): POR-PHI (o/u at 228.5)

(571) GOLDEN STATE at (572) NEW YORK
* GOLDEN STATE is 6-1 ATS in the last seven visits to Madison Square Garden
Trend Match (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE (+14.5 at NYK)

(573) UTAH at (574) SACRAMENTO
* Favorites are on runs of 11-0 SU and 8-2 ATS in the UTA-SAC series
Trend Match (PLAY): SACRAMENTO (-3.5 vs UTA)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 188-68 SU and 149-106-1 ATS (58.4%) run.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-8.5 vs MIN)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 140-110 SU and 142-105-3 ATS (57.5%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): UTAH (+3.5 at SAC)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Home teams with a winning record that are underdogs of five-points or more have gone 14-47 SU and 25-34-2 ATS (42.4%) in their last 61 non-conference games.
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (+8.5 vs POR)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 138-113 (55%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 258-213 (54.8%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 346-278 (55.4%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – DAL-CLE (spread -15.5, total 235.5), GSW-NYK (spread -14.5, total 218.5)

The following handicapping information details betting systems for divisional games.

Eastern Central Division Betting System #1:
In Eastern Central divisional games, home favorites in the -0.5 to -10 line range are on a 25-18 Over (58.1%) run since April 2024.
System Match (PLAY OVER): IND-MIL (o/u at 227.5)

Western Northwest Division Betting System #2:
In Western Northwest divisional games, teams playing a third straight home game have their totals go Over at a 32-13 (71.1%) rate in the last 45 instances.
System Match (PLAY OVER): MIN-OKC (o/u at 225.5)

Western Northwest Division Betting System #3:
In Western Northwest divisional games, favorites on two days rest or more are 10-9 SU but 4-15 ATS (21.1%) since the start of the 2024 playoffs.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-8.5 vs MIN)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted.

Teams losing despite scoring well are dangerous
NBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points offensively have bounced back extremely well in the next outing when installed as underdogs, going 115-77-1 ATS (59.9%) since the start of the 2018-2019 season.
System Match (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE (+14.5 at NYK)

Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 310-171 SU but just 200-268-13 ATS (42.7%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-8.5 vs MIN)

Rout wins are a warning sign for the next contest for the hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 344-263 SU but 277-315-15 ATS (46.8%) over the last seven seasons.
System Match (FADE ATS): SACRAMENTO (-3.5 vs UTA)

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 348-356 SU and 322-374-8 ATS (46.3%) in the next game over the last five seasons.
System Match (FADE): TORONTO (+4.5 vs DET)

Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well in the next contest as well, going 181-122 SU and 170-126-7 ATS (57.4%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (+8.5 vs POR)

Winning but not covering has been a problem
Teams that won their previous game but didn’t cover the spread have been bad in their zero rest follow-up game recently, going 61-72 SU and 46-85-2 ATS (35.1%) since the start of the 2022-23 season.
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (+8.5 vs POR)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #4:
Teams having won their last six games and are favored by >= 9-points versus a team averaging 114 PPG or more have gone just 32-9 SU but 15-26 ATS (36.6%) since the start of the 2020-21 season. Over the total is also 28-13 (68.3%) in these games.
System Match (PLAY): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR OKLAHOMA CITY vs MIN (-8.5 CURRENTLY)

NBA Streak Betting System #10:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 114-135 SU but 139-108-3 ATS (56.3%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE (+14.5 at NYK)

NBA Streak Betting System #12:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more as divisional underdogs are 11-44 SU and 18-33-4 ATS (35.3%) since April 2022.
System Match (FADE): INDIANA (+6.5 at MIL) 

NBA Streak Betting System #14:
Teams reaching winning OR losing streaks of 7 games or more become play against teams in general, going 314-360-4 ATS (46.6%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of 7 games or more have been bad in road games, going 42-166 SU and 92-110-6 ATS (45.5%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY (-8.5 vs MIN), INDIANA (+6.5 at MIL)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:15 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2025-26 season, the sample contained 633 games, and for the most part, majority bettors have lost on all six point spread, money line, and total categories. In fact, this has been the worst half-season they have endured since I started studying this subject a few years ago. Here are the results:

– Majority handle on point spreads: 291-335 ATS (46.5%), -77.5 units – ROI: -12.4%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 287-323 ATS (47%), -68.3 units – ROI: -11.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 379-247 (60.5%). -123.2 units – ROI: -20.2%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 404-227 (64%). -113.7 units – ROI: -18%
– Majority handle on totals: 306-310 (49.7%). -35 units – ROI: -5.7%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 307-318 (49.1%), -42.8 units – ROI: -6.8%

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 211-174 ATS (54.8%) over the last 3+ seasons, good for +19.6 units of profit and an ROI of 5.1%. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently.  If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): SACRAMENTO

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 868-785 ATS (52.5%) over the last 3+ seasons. This has produced a profit of +4.5 units and an ROI of 0.3%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. However, it is down over 20 units so far in 2025-26 so perhaps tread lightly. Even still, remember that handle is the total amount of money on a game and is generally considered sharper. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): INDIANA, DALLAS, DETROIT

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 456-412 ATS record (52.5%), good for +2.8 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%. This is another system that has dropped a bit this season but has still outperformed the normal levels by a decent amount. We’ll see if it can stay positive in the second half of the season.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA, INDIANA, DALLAS, PORTLAND, SACRAMENTO

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last 3+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been mildly successful, as they are 461-417 ATS (52.5%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed just over a 50% success rate, they were about 2.5% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +2.3 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): DALLAS, NEW YORK

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 3+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 579-508 ATS record, good for 54.2%. This is over a 4% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +20.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.9%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT, SACRAMENTO

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1454-663 over the last 3+ seasons but for -277.83 units and an ROI of -13.1%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 1113-757 but for -72.73 units and an ROI of -3.9%. This 9.2% disparity warrants outright fading ML majorities on home teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE ML, CLEVELAND ML, NEW YORK ML, SACRAMENTO ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number has favored the Under option over the last 3+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 484-393, good for 55.2%, +51.7 units, and an ROI of +5.9% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): IND-MIL, DAL-CLE, UTA-SAC

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 409-367 (52.7%) for +5.3 units and an ROI of +0.7% since January ’23.
System Match (PLAY): OVER – IND-MIL

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a bit more than 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 408-345 (54.2%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 398-359 (52.6%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Match (PLAY): OVER – GSW-NYK

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 200-153 (56.7%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap. This has been the most profitable angle of all in terms of ROI, producing +31.7 units of profit for 9%.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): UTA-SAC

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHILADELPHIA +8.5 (+3.9)
2. DALLAS +15.5 (+0.1)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OKLAHOMA CITY -8.5 (+1.8)
2. MILWAUKEE -7.5 (+1.2)
3. NEW YORK -13.5 (+0.2)

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DALLAS +15.5 (+3.7)
2. PHILADELPHIA +8.5 (+3.4)
3. GOLDEN STATE +13.5 (+0.1)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1(tie). OKLAHOMA CITY -8.5 (+1.0)
SACRAMENTO -3.5 (+1.0)
3. MILWAUKEE -7.5 (+0.2)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DET-TOR OVER 223.5 (+2.2)
2. POR-PHI OVER 228.5 (+0.7)
3. UTA-SAC OVER 233.5 (+0.1)

Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. IND-MIL UNDER 227.5 (-5.2)
2. GSW-NYK UNDER 218.5 (-2.9)
3. DAL-CLE UNDER 235.5 (-1.7)

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHILADELPHIA +8.5 (+4.0)
2. GOLDEN STATE +13.5 (+0.6)
3. UTAH +3.5 (+0.5)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OKLAHOMA CITY -8.5 (+2.8)
2. MILWAUKEE -7.5 (+1.4)
3. DETROIT -3.5 (+0.5)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1(tie). DAL-CLE OVER 235.5 (+1.8)
DET-TOR OVER 223.5 (+1.8)
3. MIN-OKC OVER 225.5 (+0.8)

Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. IND-MIL UNDER 227.5 (-5.0)
2. GSW-NYK UNDER 218.5 (-3.0)
3. POR-PHI UNDER 228.5 (-1.5)

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