The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Sunday, March 29, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* NBA road favorites winning 36% of their games or less are on an impressive surge of 100-41 SU and 87-53-1 ATS (62.1%).
System Match (PLAY): SACRAMENTO (-1.5 at BKN) 

* NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 316-173 SU but just 203-273-13 ATS (42.6%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): LA CLIPPERS (-14.5 at MIL) 

* HOUSTON is 2-25 SU and 8-18-1 ATS playing its 4th Straight Road game since May 2021
Trend Match (FADE): HOUSTON (-5.5 at NOP) 

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures.

* NBA teams playing on the road in a One Day Rest scenario were 73-60 SU and 72-60 ATS vs. teams in back-to-back home games since the start of last season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA CLIPPERS (-14.5 at MIL), BOSTON (+1.5 at CHA) 

* NBA teams playing at home in One Day Rest scenario were 118-94 Over the total vs. teams in 4th Straight Road games since the start of last season
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): SAC-BKN (o/u at 221.5), WSH-POR (o/u at 237.5), HOU-NOP (o/u at 225.5) 

* HOUSTON is 2-25 SU and 8-18-1 ATS playing its 4th Straight Road game since May 2021
Trend Match (FADE): HOUSTON (-5.5 at NOP) 

* NEW ORLEANS is 17-7 Over the total (70.8%) vs. teams currently winning more than 60% of their games
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): HOU-NOP (o/u at 225.5) 

* PORTLAND is 23-10 Over the total (69.7%) as a favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): WSH-POR (o/u at 237.5) 

* BROOKLYN is 23-12 Over the total playing at home in the One Day Rest scenario since February 2025
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SAC-BKN (o/u at 221.5) 

* GOLDEN STATE is 140-106 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since December 2021
* DENVER is 94-56 Over the total playing in 4th in 6 Days games since March 2021
Trends Match (PLAY OVER): GSW-DEN (o/u at 238.5)

* OKLAHOMA CITY is 48-8 SU and 37-18-1 ATS playing at home in the One Day Rest scenario since March 2024
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-8.5 vs NYK) 

* MIAMI is 15-5 SU and 16-4 ATS (80%) vs. the current lowest scoring teams in the league, scoring <114 PPG
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-8.5 at IND) 

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for today’s games: 

(539) LA CLIPPERS at (540) MILWAUKEE
* Under the total is 5-1 in the last six of the Clippers-Bucks non-conference series at Fiserv Forum
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): LAC-MIL (o/u at 222.5) 

(541) MIAMI at (542) INDIANA
* Over the total has converted in nine of the last ten meetings between Miami and Indiana
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIA-IND (o/u at 244.5) 

(543) ORLANDO at (544) TORONTO
* Under the total is on a 4-0 surge in the Magic-Raptors set at Scotiabank Arena
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): ORL-TOR (o/u at 226.5) 

(545) SACRAMENTO at (546) BROOKLYN
* Road teams are 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS in the SAC-BKN cross-country set since the start of 2023
Trend Match (PLAY): SACRAMENTO (-1.5 at BKN) 

(547) WASHINGTON at (548) PORTLAND
* Under the total is 5-1 in the last six of Wizards-Trail Blazers non-conference series at the Moda Center
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): WSH-POR (o/u at 237.5) 

(549) BOSTON at (550) CHARLOTTE
* Favorites are 7-1 SU and 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight of the BOS-CHA  series at Charlotte
Trend Match (PLAY): CHARLOTTE (-1.5 vs BOS) 

(553) NEW YORK at (554) OKLAHOMA CITY
* Home teams are 4-1 ATS in the Knicks-Thunder non-conference set since the start of 2023
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-8.5 vs NYK)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 189-68 SU and 150-106-1 ATS (58.6%) run.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-8.5 vs NYK) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #3:
NBA road favorites winning 36% of their games or less are on an impressive surge of 100-41 SU and 87-53-1 ATS (62.1%).
System Match (PLAY): SACRAMENTO (-1.5 at BKN) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #6:
Divisional single-digit home underdogs winning 38% of their games or less have gone 47-135 SU and 80-97-5 ATS (45.2%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE): NEW ORLEANS (+5.5 vs HOU)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 140-116 (54.7%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 271-225 (54.6%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 351-281 (55.5%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – MIL-LAC (spread +14.5, total 222.5), WSH-POR (spread -16.5, total 237.5), GSW-DEN (spread -12.5, total 238.5)

The following handicapping information details betting systems for divisional games. 

Western Southwest Division Betting System #1:
In WC Southwest divisional games, favorites of 3.5 points or more are on a 56-15 SU and 42-29 ATS (59.2%) run since mid-February 2024.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-5.5 at NOP) 

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted. 

Allowing 135+ points in a game is a sign of trouble
NBA teams off of a game in which they allowed 135+ points and are now favored have gone 195-114 SU but 141-164-4 ATS (46.4%) in the follow-up contest over the last seven seasons. Included among this is a 113-146 ATS (43.6%) mark when not playing the next day.
System Match (FADE): MIAMI (-8.5 at IND) 

Back-to-back scoring outbursts could be the beginning of a trend
NBA teams coming off back-to-back wins in which they scored 130+ points in each outing have gone 104-67 SU and 92-77-2 ATS (54.4%) in the follow-up contest since 2018.
System Match (PLAY): DENVER (-12.5 vs GSW) 

Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 316-173 SU but just 203-273-13 ATS (42.6%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): LA CLIPPERS (-14.5 at MIL)

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 400-351 (53.3%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): MIA-IND (o/u at 244.5) 

Teams not making many free throws bounce back well
NBA teams that are coming off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing, and are on a 200-176 SU and 205-161-10 ATS (56%) run.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (+14.5 vs LAC) 

Massive rebounding differentials
NBA road underdogs that had a -20 or worse rebounding differential in their previous game have gone 30-88 SU and 56-62 ATS (47.5%) in their last 118 tries.
System Match (FADE): NEW YORK (+8.5 at OKC)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NBA Streak Betting System #1:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a risky bet when playing as double-digit home favorites, going 157-29 SU but 80-103-3 ATS (43.7%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE ATS): DENVER (-12.5 vs GSW) 

NBA Streak Betting System #2:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5 points or more, going 102-24 SU and 70-53-3 ATS (56.9%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): LA CLIPPERS (-14.5 at MIL) 

NBA Streak Betting System #10:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 121-142 SU but 148-113-3 ATS (56.7%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (+5.5 vs HOU) 

NBA Streak Betting System #14:
Teams reaching winning OR losing streaks of 7 games or more become play against teams in general, going 330-375-4 ATS (46.8%) in the next outing since 2020.
System Match (FADE): BROOKLYN (+1.5 vs SAC)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2025-26 season, the sample contained 633 games, and for the most part, majority bettors have lost on all six point spread, money line, and total categories. In fact, this has been the worst half-season they have endured since I started studying this subject a few years ago. Here are the results: 

– Majority handle on point spreads: 291-335 ATS (46.5%), -77.5 units – ROI: -12.4%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 287-323 ATS (47%), -68.3 units – ROI: -11.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 379-247 (60.5%). -123.2 units – ROI: -20.2%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 404-227 (64%). -113.7 units – ROI: -18%
– Majority handle on totals: 306-310 (49.7%). -35 units – ROI: -5.7%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 307-318 (49.1%), -42.8 units – ROI: -6.8% 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 868-785 ATS (52.5%) over the last 3+ seasons. This has produced a profit of +4.5 units and an ROI of 0.3%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. However, it is down over 20 units so far in ’25-26 so perhaps tread lightly. Even still, remember that handle is the total amount of money on a game and is generally considered sharper. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): LA CLIPPERS, MIAMI, WASHINGTON, BOSTON, NEW YORK 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 135-106 ATS record (56%).  This has netted +18.4 units and an ROI of 7.6%. As a general rule, most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 241 games was only about 5.0% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY ALL): BROOKLYN, NEW ORLEANS 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 456-412 ATS record (52.5%), good for +2.8 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%. This is another system that has dropped a bit this season but has still outperformed the normal levels by a decent amount. We’ll see if it can stay positive in the second half of the season.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): BROOKLYN, WASHINGTON, NEW ORLEANS, NEW YORK 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last 3+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been mildly successful, as they are 461-417 ATS (52.5%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed just over a 50% success rate, they were about 2.5% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +2.3 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): NEW YORK 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 3+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 579-508 ATS record, good for 54.2%. This is over a 4% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +20.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.9%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI, BOSTON

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last 3+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 484-393, good for 55.2%, +51.7 units, and an ROI of +5.9% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): ORL-TOR, BOS-CHA 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 409-367 (52.7%) for +5.3 units and an ROI of +0.7% since January 2023.
System Match (PLAY): OVER – WSH-POR 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a bit more than 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 408-345 (54.2%).
System Match (PLAY): UNDER – BOS-CHA

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses). 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BROOKLYN +1.5 (+4.5)
2. BOSTON +1.5 (+1.6)
3. WASHINGTON +16.5 (+1.1) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LA CLIPPERS -14.5 (+3.0)
2. TORONTO -1.5 (+1.3)
3. MIAMI -8.5 (+0.9) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BROOKLYN +1.5 (+3.0)
2. BOSTON +1.5 (+1.9)
3. MILWAUKEE +14.5 (+1.5) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIAMI -8.5 (+2.0)
2(tie). OKLAHOMA CITY -8.5 (+1.2)
TORONTO -1.5 (+1.2) 

Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BOS-CHA OVER 215.5 (+3.7)
2. MIA-IND OVER 244.5 (+2.1)
3. WSH-POR OVER 237.5 (+2.0) 

Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOU-NOP UNDER 225.5 (-1.2)
2. SAC-BKN UNDER 221.5 (-0.6)
3. NYK-OKC UNDER 223.5 (-0.3) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BOSTON +1.5 (+3.8)
2. BROOKLYN +1.5 (+3.3)
3. GOLDEN STATE +12.5 (+0.7)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIAMI -8.5 (+3.4)
2. LA CLIPPERS -14.5 (+1.7)
3. HOUSTON -5.5 (+1.5) 

Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIA-IND OVER 244.5 (+4.9)
2. BOS-CHA OVER 215.5 (+4.6)
3. NYK-OKC OVER 223.5 (+2.5) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOU-NOP UNDER 225.5 (-1.8)
2. LAC-MIL UNDER 220.5 (-0.2)

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