Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Sunday, November 16, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Over the total is 11-1 in the last 12 of the Trail Blazers-Mavericks series
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): POR-DAL (o/u at 233.5)
* ATLANTA is 17-32 SU and 14-35 ATS (28.6%) playing its 3rd Straight Road game since Apr 2021
Trend Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-1.5 at PHX)
* Teams having lost their last four games or more have been fantastic in the rare role of playing as road favorites, going 45-14 SU and 40-17-2 ATS (70.2%) in their last 59 tries.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (-4.5 at UTA)
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures.
* NBA teams playing at home in 3+ Days Rest scenario are 80-40 SU and 74-44-2 ATS vs. teams in One Day Rest games over the last four seasons
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-5.5 vs LAC)
* NBA teams playing at home in 2 Days Rest scenario were 31-16 Over the total vs. teams in 3rd Straight Road games since the start of last season
System Match (PLAY OVER): ATL-PHX (o/u at 228.5)
* ATLANTA is 17-32 SU and 14-35 ATS playing its 3rd Straight Road game since Apr 2021
Trend Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-1.5 at PHX)
* NBA teams playing at home in One Day Rest scenario were 78-51 Over the total vs. teams in 4th Straight Road games since the start of last Season
System Match (PLAY OVER): POR-DAL (o/u at 234.5)
* NBA teams playing at home in 3+ Days Rest scenario are 80-40 SU and 74-44-2 ATS vs. teams in One Day Rest games over the last four seasons
* BROOKLYN is 8-16 SU but 15-8-1 ATS playing on the road in the One Day Rest scenario since Nov 2024
Trends Match: 1 PLAY OF WASHINGTON, 1 PLAY OF BROOKLYN
* NBA teams playing at home in One Day Rest scenario were 78-51 Over the total vs. teams in 4th Straight Road games since the start of last Season
* GOLDEN STATE is 120-90 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since Dec 2021
System/Trend Match (PLAY OVER): GSW-NOP (o/u at 226.5)
* HOUSTON is 116-83 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since Dec 2021
* ORLANDO is 105-74 Under the total playing in all One Day Rest games since Mar 2022
Trends Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in ORL-HOU (o/u at 226.5)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 120-82 SU and 122-77-3 ATS (61.3%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): BROOKLYN (+2.5 at WSH)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 117-96 (54.9%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 228-183 (55.5%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 303-232 (56.6%).
System Match (PLAY OVER): GSW-NOP (spread at 10.5, o/u at 226.5)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(529) LA CLIPPERS (4-8) at (530) BOSTON (6-7)
* Underdogs are on a 13-2 ATS surge in the LAC-BOS cross-country series
Trend Match (PLAY): LA CLIPPERS (+5.5 at BOS)
(531) SACRAMENTO (3-10) at (532) SAN ANTONIO (8-4)
* Over the total is 7-1 in the last eight of the Kings-Spurs set
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SAC-SAS (o/u at 240.5)
(533) BROOKLYN (1-11) at (534) WASHINGTON (1-11)
* Underdogs are on a 4-1 and 5-0 ATS run in the BKN-WSH series
Trend Match (PLAY): BROOKLYN (+2.5 at WSH)
(535) GOLDEN STATE (8-6) at (536) NEW ORLEANS (2-10)
* Home teams have won four straight ATS in the GSW-NOP series
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (+10.5 vs GSW)
(537) ORLANDO (7-6) at (538) HOUSTON (8-3)
* Over the total is 7-2-1 in the last 10 of the ORL-HOU non-conference series at Houston
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): ORL-HOU (o/u at 226.5)
(539) PORTLAND (6-6) at (540) DALLAS (3-10)
* Over the total is 11-1 in the last 12 of the POR-DAL series
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): POR-DAL (o/u at 233.5)
(541) ATLANTA (8-5) at (542) PHOENIX (8-5)
* Home teams are on a big 12-1 SU and ATS surge in the ATL-PHX series
Trend Match (PLAY): PHOENIX (+1.5 vs ATL)
(543) CHICAGO (6-5) at (544) UTAH (4-8)
* CHICAGO is 6-3 SU and ATS in the last nine meetings with Utah
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (-4.5 at UTA)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted.
Allowing 135+ points in a game is a sign of trouble
NBA teams off a game in which they allowed 135+ points and are now favored have gone 165-95 SU but 121-135-4 ATS (47.3%) in the follow-up contest over the last seven seasons. Included among this is a 99-119 ATS (45.4%) mark when not playing the next day.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (-2.5 vs BKN), PORTLAND (-4.5 at DAL)
Back-to-back scoring outbursts could be the beginning of a trend
NBA teams coming off back-to-back wins in which they scored 130+ points in each outing have gone 84-58 SU and 74-66-2 ATS (52.9%) in the follow-up contest since 2018.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): HOUSTON (-7.5 vs ORL), ATLANTA (-1.5 at PHX)
Rout wins are a warning sign for the next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 309-239 SU but 244-289-15 ATS (45.8%) over the last seven seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL ATS): BOSTON (-5.5 vs LAC), PHOENIX (+1.5 vs ATL)
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 343-297 (53.6%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER ALL): LAC-BOS (o/u at 219.5), POR-DAL (o/u at 233.5)
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 303-320 SU and 279-336-8 ATS (45.4%) in the next game over the last five seasons.
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-1.5 at PHX)
NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 174-189 SU and 163-190-10 ATS (46.2%) in that next contest over the last seven seasons.
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-1.5 at PHX)
Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest as well, going 165-109 SU and 157-110-7 ATS (58.8%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-5.5 vs LAC)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #6:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been fantastic in the rare role of playing as road favorites, going 45-14 SU and 40-17-2 ATS (70.2%) in their last 59 tries.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (-4.5 at UTA)
NBA Streak Betting System #7:
Teams who have lost at least their last four games and are facing an opponent on 2+ Days Rest have had their games go Over the total at a 122-86-2 (58.7%) rate since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): BKN-WSH (o/u at 233.5), CHI-UTA (o/u at 242.5)
NBA Streak Betting System #10:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on an 88-91 SU but 103-74-3 ATS (58.2%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (-4.5 at UTA)
NBA Streak Betting System #14:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of 7 games or more become play against teams in general, going 263-313-4 ATS (45.7%) in the next outing since 2020.
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (-2.5 vs BKN)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
To summarize the findings from the full 2024-25 season, the sample contained 1321 games, and for the most part, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while both struggled on money lines. The full season performance by the majority handle on totals last year in the NBA was better than any other sport I have covered. In fact, these were the results:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 660-614 ATS (51.8%), -15.4 units – ROI: -1.2%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 618-645 ATS (48.9%), -91.5 units – ROI: -7.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 842-458 (64.8%). -123.18 units – ROI: -9.5%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 886-421 (67.8%). -137.95 units – ROI: -10.6%
– Majority handle on totals: 708-594 (54.4%). +54.6 units – ROI: +4.2%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 670-621 (51.9%), -13.1 units – ROI: -1%
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 170-136 ATS (55.6%) over the last three seasons, good for +20.4 units of profit and an ROI of 6.7%. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently. If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 748-665 ATS (52.9%) over the last three seasons. This has produced a profit of +16.5 units and an ROI of 1.2%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): GOLDEN STATE, PORTLAND, CHICAGO
DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last three seasons, that group produced a 94-70 ATS record (57.3%). This has netted +17 units and an ROI of 10.4%. As a general rule, most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 164 games was only about 4.0% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): PHOENIX
DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning number of bets. When 70% or more of the number of bets have been on a home side of an ATS wager since January 2023, this “super” majority group has gone just 92-129 ATS (41.6%), well below the overall performance of all majorities. This has resulted in a net loss of -49.9 units for an ROI of -22.6%.
System Match (FADE): SAN ANTONIO
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last three seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 395-348 ATS (53.2%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.2% success rate, they were about 2% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +12.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.6%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): BOSTON, HOUSTON, CHICAGO
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 494-413 ATS record, good for 54.5%. This is over a 3% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +39.7 units of profit and an ROI of 4.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN ANTONIO, WASHINGTON, GOLDEN STATE, PORTLAND
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last three seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 434-351, good for 55.3%, +47.9 units, and an ROI of +6.1% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): SAC-SAS, ORL-HOU
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 346-301 (53.5%) for +14.9 units and an ROI of +2.3% since January 2023.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): OVER – SAC-SAS, BKN-WSH, POR-DAL
UNDER – CHI-UTA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a bit less than 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 396-334 (54.2%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 386-348 (52.6%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Match (PLAY): OVER – LAC-BOS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 176-126 (58.3%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap. This has been the most profitable angle of all in terms of ROI, producing +37.4 units of profit for 12.4%.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): SAC-SAS
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHOENIX +1.5 (+3.0)
2. UTAH +4.5 (+0.6)
3. LA CLIPPERS +5.5 (+0.2)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOUSTON -7.5 (+2.0)
2. GOLDEN STATE -10.5 (+0.9)
3. SAN ANTONIO -8.5 (+0.7)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHOENIX +1.5 (+3.3)
2. NEW ORLEANS +10.5 (+1.5)
3. SACRAMENTO +8.5 (+0.4)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOUSTON -7.5 (+4.0)
2. BOSTON -5.5 (+3.4)
3. PORTLAND -4.5 (+1.2)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. POR-DAL OVER 234.5 (+3.1)
2. LAC-BOS OVER 219.5 (+1.4)
3. BKN-WSH OVER 232.5 (+0.8)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ORL-HOU UNDER 226.5 (-2.8)
2. GSW-NOP UNDER 226.5 (-1.9)
3. CHI-UTA UNDER 243.5 (-1.2)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHOENIX +1.5 (+3.9)
2. LA CLIPPERS +5.5 (+2.2)
3. DALLAS +4.5 (+1.1)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GOLDEN STATE -10.5 (+1.5)
2. HOUSTON -7.5 (+1.4)
3. WASHINGTON -2.5 (+0.7)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BKN-WSH OVER 232.5 (+3.6)
2. POR-DAL OVER 234.5 (+3.4)
3. ATL-PHX OVER 228.5 (+3.1)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1(tie). SAC-SAS UNDER 240.5 (-3.5)
ORL-HOU UNDER 226.5 (-3.5)
3. CHI-UTA UNDER 243.5 (-1.3)
