The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Sunday, November 2, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest as well, going 164-106 SU and 156-107-7 ATS (59.3%) since ‘21.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (+6.5 at CLE) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #2: In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 118-79 SU and 120-74-3 ATS (61.9%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): UTAH (+1.5 at CHA) 

* Road teams are 9-1 ATS in the Grizzlies-Raptors set since 2021
Trend Match (PLAY): MEMPHIS (+4.5 at TOR)

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures. 

* NBA teams playing on road in One Day Rest scenario are 190-239 SU but 245-176-8 ATS vs. teams in 2 Days Rest games over the last four seasons
System Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (+12.5 at OKC) 

* NBA teams playing at home in 2 Days Rest scenario were 27-16 Over the total vs. teams in 3rd Straight Road games since start of last season
System Match (PLAY OVER): NOP-OKC (o/u at 228.5) 

* NBA teams playing on road in One Day Rest scenario are 39-78 SU and 43-72-2 ATS vs. teams in 3+ Days Rest games over the last four seasons

* NBA teams playing on 3+ Days Rest scenario are 73-50 SU and 73-49-1 ATS vs. teams in One Day Rest games over the last three seasons
Systems Match (PLAY): BROOKLYN (+5.5 vs PHI) 

* PHILADELPHIA is 15-4 Over the total playing on the road in One Day Rest games since Nov 2024
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): PHI-BKN (o/u at 232.5) 

* NBA teams playing on road in One Day Rest scenario were 42-32 SU and 42-31 ATS vs. teams in back-to-back home games since start of last season
System Match (PLAY): UTAH (+1.5 at CHA) 

* UTAH is 88-56 Over the total playing in One Day Rest games since November 2022
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): UTA-CHA (o/u at 238.5) 

* NBA teams playing at home in One Day Rest scenario were 74-46 Over the total vs. teams in 4th Straight Road games last season

* ATLANTA is 119-86 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since November 2021
System/Trend Match (PLAY OVER): ATL-CLE (o/u at 229.5) 

* ATLANTA is 16-31 SU and 13-34 ATS playing its 3rd Straight Road game since Apr 2021
Trend Match (FADE): ATLANTA (+6.5 at CLE) 

* LA LAKERS are 28-8 SU and 27-9 ATS playing at home in OneDayRest games since Jan ’24

* MIAMI is 11-4 SU and 12-3 ATS playing on the ROAD in the 2 Days Rest scenario since June 2023
Trends Match: 1 PLAY of LA LAKERS, 1 PLAY of MIAMI (spread at LAL -4.5) 

* TORONTO is 12-12 SU and 16-7 ATS playing at home in the One Day Rest scenario since October 2024
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-4.5 vs MEM)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 163-61 SU and 134-89-1 ATS (60.1%) run.
System Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS (-4.5 vs MIA)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 118-79 SU and 120-74-3 ATS (61.9%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): UTAH (+1.5 at CHA)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #6:
Divisional single-digit home underdogs winning 38% of their games or less have gone 35-117 SU and 61-86-5 ATS (41.5%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE): BROOKLYN (+5.5 vs PHI) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 114-93 (55.1%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 227-179 (55.9%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 296-227 (56.6%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER): NOP-OKC (spread at -12.5, total at 228.5)

The following handicapping information details betting systems for divisional games.

 Eastern Atlantic Division Betting System #1:
In Eastern Atlantic divisional games, single-digit favorites have gone 84-31 SU and 70-52-3 ATS (57.4%) since the start of the 2022-23 season.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-5.5 at BKN) 

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(537) NEW ORLEANS (0-5) at (538) OKLAHOMA CITY (6-0)
* OKLAHOMA CITY is on an extended 14-5 SU and 15-4 ATS run versus NOP
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-12.5 vs NOP) 

(539) ATLANTA (3-3) at (540) CLEVELAND (3-3)
* CLEVELAND is 4-1 SU and ATS in the last five games hosting Atlanta
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-6.5 vs ATL) 

(541) PHILADELPHIA (4-1) at (542) BROOKLYN (0-5)
* Under the total is 8-3 in the last 11 of the PHI-BKN divisional rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-BKN (o/u at 232.5) 

(543) UTAH (2-3) at (544) CHARLOTTE (2-4)
* UTAH is 11-4 ATS versus non-conference foe Charlotte since February 2018
Trend Match (PLAY): UTAH (+1.5 at CHA) 

(545) MEMPHIS (3-3) at (546) TORONTO (2-4)
* Road teams are 9-1 ATS in the MEM-TOR set since 2021
Trend Match (PLAY): MEMPHIS (+4.5 at TOR) 

(547) CHICAGO (5-0) at (548) NEW YORK (2-3)
* Underdogs are 8-4 SU and 10-2 ATS in the last 12 of the CHI-NYK series
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (+6.5 at NYK) 

(549) SAN ANTONIO (5-0) at (550) PHOENIX (2-4)
* Home teams have covered four straight in the SAS-PHX set
Trend Match (PLAY): PHOENIX (+5.5 vs SAS) 

(551) MIAMI (3-2) at (552) LA LAKERS (4-2)
* Underdogs are 4-1 ATS in the MIA-LAL series in Los Angeles, but did lose last time
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+4.5 at LAL)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted. 

Allowing 135+ points in a game is a sign of trouble
NBA teams off a game in which they allowed 135+ points and are now favored have gone 161-95 SU but 118-134-4 ATS (46.8%) in the follow-up contest over the last seven seasons. Included among this is a 96-118 ATS (44.9%) mark when not playing the next day.
System Match (FADE): NEW YORK (-6.5 vs CHI) 

Upset wins over conference opponents lead to next game stumbles versus non-conference opponents
NBA teams coming off an upset win over an intra-conference foe have had problems when facing a non-conference opponent in the next game, going just 155-191 SU and 149-193-4 ATS (43.6%) since late-January 2021.
System Match (FADE ATS): TORONTO (-4.5 vs MEM) 

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 334-283 (54.1%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CHI-NYK (o/u at 236.5) 

Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest as well, going 164-106 SU and 156-107-7 ATS (59.3%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (+6.5 at CLE) 

High TO games can be significant
NBA teams that committed 20+ turnovers in the previous game have done well in expected-tight matchups (within -4 to +4 line range) in the follow-up game, going 65-47 SU and 67-44-1 ATS (60.4%) in their last 112 tries.
System Match (PLAY): UTAH (+1.5 at CHA)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NBA Streak Betting System #1:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a risky bet when playing as double-digit home favorites, going 131-24 SU but 68-84-3 ATS (44.7%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE ATS): OKLAHOMA CITY (-12.5 vs NOP) 

NBA Streak Betting System #7:
Teams who have lost at least their last four games and are facing an opponent on 2+ Days Rest have had their games go Over the total at a 120-85-2 (58.5%) rate since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY OVER): NOP-OKC (o/u at 228.5) 

NBA Streak Betting System #12:
Teams on losing streaks of five games or more have struggled as divisional underdogs, going 13-44 SU and 21-33-3 ATS (38.9%) since the start of the 2023-24 season.
System Match (FADE): BROOKLYN (+5.5 vs PHI)

NBA Streak Betting System #13:
When teams on alternate streaks of at least four games go head-to-head, the teams on the losing streaks have gone 35-75 SU but 60-50 ATS (54.5%) over the last five seasons.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY ATS): NEW ORLEANS (+12.5 at OKC)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:30 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

To summarize the findings from the full 2024-25 season, the sample contained 1321 games, and for the most part, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while both struggled on money lines. The full season performance by the majority handle on totals last year in the NBA was better than any other sport I have covered. In fact, these were the results:

– Majority handle on point spreads: 660-614 ATS (51.8%), -15.4 units – ROI: -1.2%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 618-645 ATS (48.9%), -91.5 units – ROI: -7.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 842-458 (64.8%). -123.18 units – ROI: -9.5%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 886-421 (67.8%). -137.95 units – ROI: -10.6%
– Majority handle on totals: 708-594 (54.4%). +54.6 units – ROI: +4.2%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 670-621 (51.9%), -13.1 units – ROI: -1% 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 170-136 ATS (55.6%) over the last three seasons, good for +20.4 units of profit and a ROI of 6.7%. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently.  If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): CHARLOTTE 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last three seasons, that group produced a 94-70 ATS record (57.3%).  This has netted +17 units and an ROI of 10.4%. As a general rule, most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 164 games was only about 4.0% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BROOKLYN, PHOENIX 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 352-298 ATS record (54.2%), good for +24.2 units of profit and an ROI of 3.7%. This lot of 650 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BROOKLYN, TORONTO, PHOENIX, NEW YORK, MIAMI 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning number of bets. When 70% or more of the number of bets have been on a home side of an ATS wager since January ‘23, this “super” majority group has gone just 92-129 ATS (41.6%), well below the overall performance of all majorities. This has resulted in a net loss of -49.9 units for an ROI of -22.6%.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last three seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 395-348 ATS (53.2%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.2% success rate, they were about 2% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +12.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.6%.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): CHARLOTTE

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 494-413 ATS record, good for 54.5%. This is over a 3% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +39.7 units of profit and an ROI of 4.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY, CLEVELAND, NEW YORK 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1252-561 over the last three seasons but for -220.99 units and an ROI of -12.2%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 943-612 but for just -6.38 units and an ROI of -0.4%. This 11.8% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and at least considering ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY ML, CLEVELAND ML, TORONTO ML, LA LAKERS ML 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last three seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 434-351, good for 55.3%, +47.9 units, and an ROI of +6.1% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): NOP-OKC, ATL-CLE, PHI-BKN, UTA-CHA, CHI-NYK 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 346-301 (53.5%) for +14.9 units and an ROI of +2.3% since January 2023.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): OVER – UTA-CHA
UNDER – MEM-TOR

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ATLANTA +6.5 (+2.1)
2(tie). NEW ORLEANS +12.5 (+1.9)
BROOKLYN +4.5 (+1.9) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: CHARLOTTE -1.5 (+1.7) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIAMI +4.5 (+2.7)
2. CHICAGO +7.5 (+1.9)
3. BROOKLYN +4.5 (+1.4) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAN ANTONIO -5.5 (+3.0)
2. CHARLOTTE -1.5 (+1.9)
3. OKLAHOMA CITY -12.5 (+1.4) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHI-BKN OVER 232.5 (+2.8)
2. ATL-CLE OVER 229.5 (+2.2)
3. CHI-NYK OVER 235.5 (+1.4)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. UTA-CHA UNDER 238.5 (-2.2)
2. MIA-LAL UNDER 233.5 (-1.9)
3. SAS-PHX UNDER 227.5 (-1.0) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW ORLEANS +12.5 (+1.8)
2. ATLANTA +6.5 (+1.6)
3. BROOKLYN +4.5 (+1.2) 

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHARLOTTE -1.5 (+1.8)
2. LA LAKERS -4.5 (+0.5) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. UTA-CHA OVER 238.5 (+8.3)
2. ATL-CLE OVER 229.5 (+6.3)
3. MEM-TOR OVER 238.5 (+2.7) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIA-LAL UNDER 233.5 (-3.6)
2. SAS-PHX UNDER 227.5 (-2.0)
3. NOP-OKC UNDER 228.5 (-0.4)

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