Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Sunday, November 23, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* NBA teams off of a previous day win but having allowed 120+ points have had their totals go Over at a 89-57-1 (61%) rate (sub-system: 51-24-1 to the Over (68%) when on the road next game) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY OVER): ORL-BOS (o/u at 222.5)
* Teams that win outright versus divisional rivals as double-digit underdogs have trended sharply Under the total in the next contest, going 61-39-1 (61%) in their last 101 tries.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): BKN-TOR (o/u at 228.5)
* NBA teams playing on 3+DaysRest scenario are 77-52 SU and 76-52-1 ATS (59.4%) vs. teams in One Day Rest games over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS (-9.5 at UTA)
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
* NBA teams playing on road in One Day Rest scenario are 193-247 SU but 249-183-8 ATS vs. teams in 2 Days Rest games over the last four seasons
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+1.5 at PHI)
* NBA teams playing in back-to-back away scenario are 23-43 SU and 23-42-1 ATS vs. teams in 4thStraightHome games over the last three easons
System Match (FADE): LA CLIPPERS (+8.5 at CLE)
* NBA teams playing at home in One Day Rest scenario were 82-54 Over the total vs. teams in 4th Straight Road games since the start of last Season
System Match (PLAY OVER): LAC-CLE (o/u at 229.5)
* BROOKLYN is 9-16 SU but 16-8-1 ATS playing on the road in the One Day Rest scenario since Nov 2024
* TORONTO is 16-12 SU and 19-8 ATS playing at home in the One Day Rest scenario since Oct 2024
Trends Match: 1 PLAY OF BROOKLYN, 1 PLAY OF TORONTO
* OKLAHOMA CITY is 36-5 SU and 32-8-1 ATS playing at home in the One Day Rest scenario since Mar 2024
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-15.5 vs POR)
* NBA teams playing on 3+ Days Rest scenario are 77-52 SU and 76-52-1 ATS vs. teams in One Day Rest games over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS (-9.5 at UTA)
* NBA teams playing at home in One Day Rest scenario are 62-26 Under the total vs. teams in 4th in 10+ Days games over the last two Seasons
* UTAH is 91-58 Over the total playing in One Day Rest games since Nov ’22
System/Trend Match (PLAY OVER): LAL-UTA (o/u at 245.5)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(559) MIAMI at (560) PHILADELPHIA
* MIAMI is 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS in the last eight trips to Philadelphia
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+1.5 at PHI)
(561) LA CLIPPERS at (562) CLEVELAND
* Over the total is 8-2 in the last 10 of the LAC-CLE non-conference series
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): LAC-CLE (o/u at 229.5)
(563) ORLANDO at (564) BOSTON
* BOSTON is 5-1 ATS in the last six games hosting Orlando
Trend Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-4.5 vs ORL)
(565) BROOKLYN at (566) TORONTO
* Favorites are 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS in the last 10 of the Nets-Raptors divisional rivalry at Toronto
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-12.5 vs BKN)
(567) CHARLOTTE at (568) ATLANTA
* Over the total is 6-1-1 in the of the CHA-ATL divisional series at State Farm Arena
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CHA-ATL (o/u at 231.5)
(569) PORTLAND at (570) OKLAHOMA CITY
* Under the total is 8-1 in the last ninbe of the Trail Blazers-Thunder divisional set at Oklahoma City
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): POR-OKC (o/u at 233.5)
(571) LA LAKERS at (572) UTAH
* Over the total is 11-2 in the last 13 of the LAL-UTA series
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): LAL-UTA (o/u at 245.5)
(573) SAN ANTONIO at (574) PHOENIX
* Home teams are 5-0 in L5 h2h matchups between SAS and PHX
Trend Match (PLAY): PHOENIX (-2.5 vs SAS)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 120-97 (55.3%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 229-185 (55.3%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 310-235 (56.9%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): UNDER – BKN-TOR (spread -12.5, total 228.5), POR-OKC (spread -15.5, total 233.5)
NBA Divisional Systems/Trends
The following handicapping information details betting systems for divisional games.
Eastern Southeast Division Betting System #2:
In Eastern Southeast divisional games, road teams playing on a b2b are 12-17 SU and 11-18 ATS (37.9%) since the start of the 2021-22 season.
System Match (FADE): CHARLOTTE (+7.5 at ATL)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted.
Allowing 120+ points in a win has led to more high-scoring games
NBA teams off of a previous day win but having allowed 120+ points have had their totals go Over at a 89-57-1 (61%) rate (sub-system: 51-24-1 to the Over (68%) when on the road next game) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY OVER): ORL-BOS (o/u at 222.5)
Teams losing despite scoring well are dangerous
NBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points offensively have bounced back extremely well in the next outing when installed as underdogs, going 94-63-1 ATS (59.9%) since the start of the 2018-2019 season.
System Match (PLAY): CHARLOTTE (+7.5 at ATL)
Divisional upsets can create urgency
Teams that win outright versus divisional rivals as double-digit underdogs have trended sharply Under the total in the next contest, going 61-39-1 (61%) in their last 101 tries.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): BKN-TOR (o/u at 228.5)
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 347-303 (53.4%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): MIA-PHI (o/u at 240.5), BKN-TOR (o/u at 228.5), LAL-UTA (o/u at 245.5)
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 306-320 SU and 282-336-8 ATS (45.6%) in the next game over the last five seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TORONTO (-12.5 vs BKN), OKLAHOMA CITY (-15.5 vs POR)
High TO games can be significant
NBA teams that committed 20+ turnovers in the previous game have done well in expected-tight matchups (within -4 to +4 line range) in the follow-up game, going 74-55 SU and 76-52-1 ATS (59.4%) in their L129 tries.
System Match (PLAY): PHOENIX (-2.5 vs SAS)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #1:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a risky bet when playing as double-digit home favorites, going 135-25 SU BUT 70-87-3 ATS (44.6%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL ATS): TORONTO (-12.5 vs BKN), OKLAHOMA CITY (-15.5 vs POR)
NBA Streak Betting System #4:
Teams having won their last six games and are favored by >= 9-points versus a team averaging 114 PPG or more have gone just 25-9 SU but 11-23 ATS (32.4%) since the start of the 2020-21 season. Over the total is also 24-10 (70.6%) in these games.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-15.5 vs POR)
System Match (PLAY OVER): POR-OKC (o/u at 233.5)
NBA Streak Betting System #10:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 90-93 SU but 105-76-3 ATS (58%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): CHARLOTTE (+7.5 at ATL)
NBA Streak Betting System #12:
Teams on losing streaks of five games or more have struggled as divisional underdogs, going 13-47 SU and 22-35-3 ATS (38.6%) since the start of the 2023-24 season.
System Match (FADE): CHARLOTTE (+7.5 at ATL)
NBA Streak Betting System #15:
Teams reaching an 8-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 66-88-1 ATS (42.9%) in the next game over the last five seasons.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-15.5 vs POR)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
To summarize the findings from the full 2024-25 season, the sample contained 1321 games, and for the most part, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while both struggled on money lines. The full season performance by the majority handle on totals last year in the NBA was better than any other sports I have covered. In fact, these were the results:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 660-614 ATS (51.8%), -15.4 units – ROI: -1.2%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 618-645 ATS (48.9%), -91.5 units – ROI: -7.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 842-458 (64.8%). -123.18 units – ROI: -9.5%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 886-421 (67.8%). -137.95 units – ROI: -10.6%
– Majority handle on totals: 708-594 (54.4%). +54.6 units – ROI: +4.2%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 670-621 (51.9%), -13.1 units – ROI: -1%
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 748-665 ATS (52.9%) over the last three seasons. This has produced a profit of +16.5 units and an ROI of 1.2%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BROOKLYN, LA LAKERS, SAN ANTONIO
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 352-298 ATS record (54.2%), good for +24.2 units of profit and an ROI of 3.7%. This lot of 650 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON, BROOKLYN
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last three seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 395-348 ATS (53.2%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.2% success rate, they were about 2% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +12.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.6%.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): CLEVELAND
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 494-413 ATS record, good for 54.5%. This is over a 3% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +39.7 units of profit and an ROI of 4.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON, LA LAKERS, SAN ANTONIO
DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher, however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last three seasons, they are just 137-153 ATS, good for 47.2%. This is over a 4% drop off compared to the overall majority figures and has resulted in -31.3 units of loss and an ROI of -10.8%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BROOKLYN, ATLANTA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in a NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking OVERS. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last three seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 434-351, good for 55.3%, +47.9 units, and an ROI of +6.1% since January ’23.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): BKN-TOR
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 346-301 (53.5%) for +14.9 units and an ROI of +2.3% since January 2023.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): UNDER – MIA-PHI, LAL-UTA
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHARLOTTE +7.5 (+0.8)
2. SAN ANTONIO +2.5 (+0.1)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CLEVELAND -8.5 (+1.8)
2. TORONTO -12.5 (+1.3)
3. OKLAHOMA CITY -15.5 (+0.9)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PORTLAND +15.5 (+3.6)
2. BROOKLYN +12.5 (+3.1)
3. UTAH +9.5 (+1.2)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1(tie). CLEVELAND -8.5 (+0.5)
ATLANTA -7.5 (+0.5)
3. PHILADELPHIA -1.5 (+0.4)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHA-ATL OVER 230.5 (+1.3)
2. BKN-TOR OVER 228.5 (+0.7)
3. ORL-BOS OVER 222.5 (+0.6)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAS-PHX UNDER 235.5 (-7.0)
2. POR-OKC UNDER 233.5 (-5.0)
3. LAC-CLE UNDER 229.5 (-1.4)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ORLANDO +4.5 (+1.1)
2. CHARLOTTE +7.5 (+0.8)
3. MIAMI +1.5 (+0.2)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OKLAHOMA CITY -15.5 (+2.4)
2. TORONTO -12.5 (+2.1)
3. CLEVELAND -8.5 (+2.0)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHA-ATL OVER 230.5 (+3.1)
2. MIA-PHI OVER 241.5 (+0.2)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAS-PHX UNDER 235.5 (-9.5)
2. POR-OKC UNDER 233.5 (-4.4)
3. ORL-BOS UNDER 222.5 (-3.6)
