Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games on 11/8. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top trends and systems for today’s NBA games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* NEW ORLEANS has dominated LAC in h2h action recently, going 15-7 SU & 19-3 ATS in their L22 meetings
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (-1.5 at LAC)
* NBA teams playing in the 3+DaysRest game scenario are 31-10 SU & 27-11 ATS vs. teams playing a 3rdStraightRoad game since ’21
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (+9.5 vs PHI)
* Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more as divisional underdogs are 11-48 SU & 18-37-4 ATS (32.7%) since April 2022.
System Match (FADE): UTAH (+12.5 at MIN)
Schedule situations crucial for NBA handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
* NBA teams playing in the OneDayRest game scenario are 18-33 SU & 16-34 ATS vs. teams playing a 3+DaysRest game over the L4 Seasons
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-9.5 at CHI), LA LAKERS (+4.5 at DET), NEW ORLEANS (-1.5 at LAC)
* NBA teams playing at HOME in the OneDayRest game scenario are 90-52 UNDER the total hosting teams in a 4thin10+Days game over the L4 Seasons
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): PHI-CHI (o/u at 237.5), LAL-DET (o/u at 221.5)
* NBA teams playing in the 3+DaysRest game scenario are 31-10 SU & 27-11 ATS vs. teams playing a 3rdStraightRoad game since ’21
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (+9.5 vs PHI)
* PHILADELPHIA is 35-17 OVER the total playing in 3rdStraightRoad games since Apr ’22
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): PHI-CHI (o/u at 237.5)
* LA CLIPPERS are 12-6 SU & 15-3 ATS playing at HOME with 3+DaysRest since Dec ’21
Trend Match (PLAY): LA CLIPPERS (+1.5 vs NOP)
* LA LAKERS are 105-64 SU & 100-68 ATS playing with OneDayRest since Nov ’23
Trend Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS (+4.5 at DET)
* DETROIT is 23-13 UNDER the total (63.9%) as a favorite of -1.5 to -5 points since the start of last season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): LAL-DET (o/u at 221.5)
* MILWAUKEE is 95-62 OVER the total playing at HOME with OneDayRest since Jan ’21
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): BOS-MIL (o/u at 220.5)
* UTAH is 114-82 OVER the total playing with OneDayRest since Nov ’22
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): UTA-MIN (o/u at 222.5)
* MIAMI is 18-8 SU & 17-9 ATS (65.4%) vs. the current lowest scoring teams in the league (scoring <114 PPG), since the start of last season
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-10.5 at SAC)
Top Daily H2h Series Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series trends in play for all of today’s games:
(565) PHILADELPHIA at (566) CHICAGO
* UNDER the total is 11-2 in L13 of 76ers-Bulls h2h series
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-CHI (o/u at 237.5)
(567) LA LAKERS at (568) DETROIT
* DETROIT has won and covered all four h2h meetings with LAL in the L2 seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-4.5 at LAL)
(569) UTAH at (570) MINNESOTA
* HOME TEAMS are 6-1 SU & ATS in the L7 h2h games between Utah and Minnesota
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-12.5 vs UTA)
(571) BROOKLYN at (572) DALLAS
* DALLAS is 5-1 SU & ATS in their L6 h2h meetings with Brooklyn
Trend Match (PLAY): DALLAS (-7.5 vs BKN)
(573) BOSTON at (574) MILWAUKEE
* UNDER the total is 8-1 in L9 of Celtics-Bucks h2h set
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BOS-MIL (o/u at 220.5)
(575) MIAMI at (576) SACRAMENTO
* OVER the total has converted in six straight h2h matchups between Miami and Sacramento at the Golden 1 Center
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIA-SAC (o/u at 237.5)
(577) NEW ORLEANS at (578) LA CLIPPERS
* NEW ORLEANS has dominated LAC in h2h action recently, going 15-7 SU & 19-3 ATS in their L22 meetings
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (-1.5 at LAC)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based upon some various team strength indicator or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last six NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 200-81 SU & 159-121-1 ATS (56.8%) run.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-4.5 vs LAL)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #3:
NBA road favorites winning 36% of their games or less are on an impressive surge of 105-45 SU & 90-59-1 ATS (60.4%).
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-10.5 at SAC)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the L5 seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, UNDER the total has gone 149-128 (53.8%). In non-conference games, OVER the total was 279-235 (54.3%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, OVER the total was 373-307 (54.9%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – BOS-MIL (spread MIL +13.5, o/u at 220.5), MIA-SAC (spread SAC +10.5, o/u at 237.5)
UNDER – UTA-MIN (spread MIN -12.5, o/u at 222.5)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the L6 seasons unless noted.
Large favorites off a solid defensive win
5) NBA teams off a win where they allowed <= 105 points and are now large favorites (-11 or more) in the next contest have had their totals go OVER at a 201-140-1 (58.9%) rate since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY OVER): BOS-MIL (o/u at 220.5)
Teams losing despite scoring well are dangerous
6) NBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points offensively have bounced back extremely well in the next outing when installed as underdogs, going 124-84-1 ATS (59.6%) since the start of the 2018-2019 season.
System Match (PLAY): LA CLIPPERS (+1.5 vs NOP)
Rout games can be significant
13) NBA teams coming off any game in which they lost on the point spread by 25-points or more have gone 164-55 SU & 123-94-2 ATS (56.7%) when a pick ‘em or favorite in their follow-up contest since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-9.5 at CHI)
Unusual shooting performance systems
16) NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more FREE THROW ATTEMPTS trended UNDER the total the next game, 439-373 (54.1%) since 2021.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): LAL-DET (o/u at 221.5), UTA-MIN (o/u at 222.5)
17) NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 369-374 SU & 338-397-8 ATS (46%) in the next game over the last six seasons.
System Match (FADE): BOSTON (-13.5 at MIL)
Unusual defensive performances
20) NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest as well, going 196-133 SU & 183-139-7 ATS (56.8%) since ’21.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-13.5 at MIL)
High TO games can be significant
24) NBA teams that committed 20+ turnovers in the previous game have done well in expected-tight matchups (within -4 to +4 line range) in the follow-up game, going 111-81 SU & 113-78-1 ATS (59.2%) in their L192 tries.
System Match (PLAY): LA CLIPPERS (+1.5 vs NOP)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #10:
Teams who have lost at least their last four games and are playing their
fourth straight road game have been bad, going 11-36 SU & 19-27-1 ATS
(41.3%) against conference opponents since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE): UTAH (+12.5 at MIN)
NBA Streak Betting System #13:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more as divisional underdogs are 11-48 SU & 18-37-4 ATS (32.7%) since April 2022.
System Match (FADE): UTAH (+12.5 at MIN)
NBA Streak Betting System #15:
Teams reaching winning OR losing streaks of 7-games or more become play against teams in general, going 348-393-4 ATS (47%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of 7-games or more have been bad in road games, going 45-179 SU & 98-120-6 ATS (45%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): UTAH (+12.5 at MIN), LA CLIPPERS (+1.5 vs NOP)
Strategies using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits data
Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 AM ET. These can AND WILL change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the HANDLE has been on the ROAD side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 992-906 ATS (52.3%) over the last four seasons. This has produced -4.6 units and a ROI of -0.2%. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA, LA LAKERS, UTAH, BOSTON, NEW ORLEANS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation but when there was a majority HANDLE backing a HOME UNDERDOG in the NBA over the last four seasons, that group produced a 167-146 ATS record (53.4%). This has netted +6.4 units and a ROI of 2%. As a general rule, most bettors tend to bet favorites.
System Match (PLAY): SACRAMENTO
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation but when there was a majority HANDLE backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 580-526 ATS record (52.4%), going for +1.4 units of profit and a ROI of +0.1%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): UTAH, SACRAMENTO
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA Non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last three seasons, DK super majority HANDLE groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 558-490 ATS (53.2%). This simple angle has produced +19 units of profit and a ROI of +1.8%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA LAKERS, DALLAS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 3+ seasons, with HANDLE groups of that size boasting a 692-614 ATS record, good for 53%. This is about a 3% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +16.6 units of profit and a ROI of +1.3%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA, BOSTON, NEW ORLEANS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference & non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in DIVISIONAL games. The super-majority number is a little higher however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last four seasons, they are just 208-223 ATS, good for 48.3%. This is almost a 4% drop off compared to the overall majority figures and has resulted in -37.2 units of loss and a ROI of -8.6%.
System Match (FADE): UTAH
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a MASSIVE disparity of success levels for majority groups on HANDLE when they back the HOME OR ROAD team on MONEY LINE wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1767-790 over the last three seasons but for -306.85 units and a ROI of -12%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 1358-894 but for just -44.39 units and a ROI of -2%. This 10%+ disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams consistently.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA ML, DALLAS ML, LA CLIPPERS ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of HANDLE bettors were backing the UNDER in a NBA game. When any majority number have favored the UNDER option over the last four seasons, the results have been strong, with UNDER the total on these games going 568-470, good for 54.7%, +51 units, and a R.O.I. of +4.9% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): PHI-CHI, NOP-LAC
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: Majority HANDLE UNDER bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These UNDER majorities have gone 225-176 (56.1%) since January ’23 by not getting baited into this totals trap. This has been a very profitable angle in terms of ROI, producing +31.4 units of profit for +7.8%.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): NOP-LAC
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: Essentially the opposite of #13 above is the situation when so much money is coming in on majority HANDLE on an OVER that DraftKings is forced to move a total higher. When 77% or more majority HANDLE bettors are on OVER for a game that has seen its total rise since opening, that group has gone 355-279 (56%) since January ’23. This recently discovered and best units off all angle has produced +48.1 units of profit for +7.6%.
System Match (PLAY OVER): BKN-DAL
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. UTAH +12.5 (+2.3)
2. LA CLIPPERS +1.5 (+1.1)
3. BROOKLYN +7.5 (+0.4)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DETROIT -4.5 (+2.7)
2. PHILADELPHIA -9.5 (+1.2)
3. MIAMI -10.5 (+0.1)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHICAGO +9.5 (+2.3)
2. UTAH +12.5 (+1.3)
3. SACRAMENTO +10.5 (+0.9)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BOSTON -13.5 (+3.9)
2. DETROIT -4.5 (+2.9)
3. DALLAS -7.5 (+1.0)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHI-CHI OVER 237.5 (+4.3)
2. BOS-MIL OVER 220.5 (+3.8)
3. UTA-MIN OVER 222.5 (+2.1)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BKN-DAL UNDER 222.5 (-1.5)
2. NOP-LAC UNDER 226.5 (-1.1)
3. LAL-DET UNDER 221.5 (-0.6)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LA CLIPPERS +1.5 (+2.9)
2. UTAH +12.5 (+2.5)
3. BROOKLYN +7.5 (+0.4)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DETROIT -4.5 (+3.2)
2. MIAMI -10.5 (+0.9)
3. PHILADELPHIA -9.5 (+0.5)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BOS-MIL OVER 220.5 (+5.5)
2. BKN-DAL OVER 222.5 (+4.1)
3. PHI-CHI OVER 237.5 (+4.0)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: LAL-DET UNDER 221.5 (-0.2)
