Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Sunday, November 9, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Home teams are 14-2 ATS in the OKC-MEM series since 2022
Trend Match (PLAY): MEMPHIS (+10.5 at OKC)
* NBA teams off of a previous day win but having allowed 120+ points have had their totals go Over at an 88-54-1 (62%) rate since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY OVER): DET-PHI (o/u at 232.5)
* GOLDEN STATE is 26-28 SU and 17-34 ATS playing home games in the One Day Rest scenario since Nov 2023
Trend Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (-12.5 vs IND)
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures.
* HOUSTON is 114-83 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since Dec 2021
* MILWAUKEE is 17-2 Over the total playing at home in the One Day Rest scenario since Jan 2025
Trends Match (PLAY OVER): HOU-MIL (o/u at 231.5)
* NBA teams playing on the road in One Day Rest scenario were 44-34 SU and 44-33 ATS vs. teams in back-to-back home games since start of last season
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-4.5 at PHI)
* BROOKLYN is 8-15 SU but 15-7-1 ATS playing on the road in the One Day Rest scenario since Nov ’24
Trend Match (PLAY): BROOKLYN (+15.5 at NYK)
* NBA teams playing at home in 3+ Days Rest scenario are 78-40 SU and 72-44-2 ATS vs. teams in One Day Rest games over the last four seasons
System Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-15.5 vs BKN)
* NBA teams playing at home in One Day Rest scenario were 76-49 Over the total vs. teams in 4th Straight Road games since the start of last Season
System Match (PLAY OVER): OKC-MEM (o/u at 231.5)
* MEMPHIS is 11-4 SU and 12-3 ATS playing in 4th Straight Home games since Dec 2021
* OKLAHOMA CITY is 66-13 SU and 51-25-3 ATS playing in all OneDayRest games since Apr 2024
Trends Match: 1 PLAY of MEMPHIS, 1 PLAY of OKLAHOMA CITY (spread MEM +10.5)
* ORLANDO is 103-73 Under the total playing in all One Day Rest games since Mar 2022
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BOS-ORL (o/u at 227.5)
* GOLDEN STATE is 26-28 SU and 17-34 ATS playing home games in the One Day Rest scenario since Nov 2023
Trend Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (-12.5 vs IND)
* GOLDEN STATE is 119-88 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since Dec 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): IND-GSW (o/u at 228.5)
* SACRAMENTO is 5-9 SU and 2-12 ATS playing in 3rd Straight Home games since Nov 2024
Trend Match (FADE): SACRAMENTO (+5.5 vs MIN)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(501) HOUSTON (5-3) at (502) MILWAUKEE (6-3)
* Home teams are 7-1 SU and 6-1-1 ATS in the HOU-MIL non-conference series
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (+4.5 vs HOU)
(503) BROOKLYN (1-8) at (504) NEW YORK (5-3)
* BROOKLYN is 0-5 SU but 3-1-1 ATS in the last five of the divisional rivalry with NYK
Trend Match (PLAY): BROOKLYN (+15.5 at NYK)
(505) OKLAHOMA CITY (9-1) at (506) MEMPHIS (4-6)
* Home teams are 14-2 ATS in the OKC-MEM series since 2022
Trend Match (PLAY): MEMPHIS (+10.5 at OKC)
(507) BOSTON (4-6) at (508) ORLANDO (4-5)
* Home teams are 11-2 ATS in the last 13 of the Celtics-Magic series
Trend Match (PLAY): ORLANDO (-3.5 vs BOS)
(509) DETROIT (7-2) at (510) PHILADELPHIA (6-3)
* PHILADELPHIA is 5-1 ATS in the last six games hosting Detroit
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (+4.5 vs DET)
(511) INDIANA (1-8) at (512) GOLDEN STATE (5-5)
* INDIANA is 8-1 ATS in non-conference series with Golden State since the start of the 21-22 season
Trend Match (PLAY): INDIANA (+12.5 at GSW)
(513) MINNESOTA (5-4) at (514) SACRAMENTO (3-6)
* Road teams have covered all ten matchups between MIN and SAC since late-January 2023
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-5.5 at SAC)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Home teams with a winning record that are underdogs of five points or more have gone 11-40 SU and 19-30-2 ATS (38.8%) in their last 51 non-conference games.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (*if they fall into this line range vs HOU, +4.5 currently)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 116-95 (55%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 227-180 (55.8%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 302-229 (56.9%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – OKC-MEM (spread 10.5, total 231.5), IND-GSW (spread -12.5, total 229.5)
UNDER – BKN-NYK (spread -15.5, total 227.5)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted.
135 points in a win is a team score to watch for
Teams that won their last game while scoring 135 or more points are on a 259-138 SU but 185-204-8 ATS (47.6%) skid in the follow-up contest when favored.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW YORK (-15.5 vs BKN), MINNESOTA (-5.5 at SAC)
Allowing 120+ points in a win has led to more high-scoring games
NBA teams off of a previous day win but having allowed 120+ points have had their totals go Over at a 88-54-1 (62%) rate since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY OVER): DET-PHI (o/u at 232.5)
High TO games can be significant
NBA teams that committed 20+ turnovers in the previous game have done well in expected-tight matchups (within -4 to +4 line range) in the follow-up game, going 66-48 SU and 68-45-1 ATS (60.2%) in their last 114 tries.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (*if they fall into this line range at MIL, +4.5 currently*)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
To summarize the findings from the full 2024-25 season, the sample contained 1,321 games, and for the most part, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while both struggled on money lines. The full season performance by the majority handle on totals last year in the NBA was better than any other sport I have covered. In fact, these were the results:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 660-614 ATS (51.8%), -15.4 units – ROI: -1.2%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 618-645 ATS (48.9%), -91.5 units – ROI: -7.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 842-458 (64.8%). -123.18 units – ROI: -9.5%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 886-421 (67.8%). -137.95 units – ROI: -10.6%
– Majority handle on totals: 708-594 (54.4%). +54.6 units – ROI: +4.2%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 670-621 (51.9%), -13.1 units – ROI: -1%
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a four-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 170-136 ATS (55.6%) over the last three seasons, good for +20.4 units of profit and an ROI of 6.7%. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently. If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): ORLANDO
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 748-665 ATS (52.9%) over the last three seasons. This has produced a profit of +16.5 units and an ROI of 1.2%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY, DETROIT, INDIANA, MINNESOTA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last three seasons, that group produced a 94-70 ATS record (57.3%). This has netted +17 units and an ROI of 10.4%. As a general rule, most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 164 games was only about 4.0% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 352-298 ATS record (54.2%), good for +24.2 units of profit and an ROI of 3.7%. This lot of 650 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last three seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 395-348 ATS (53.2%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.2% success rate, they were about 2% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +12.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.6%.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): INDIANA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 494-413 ATS record, good for 54.5%. This is over a 3% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +39.7 units of profit and an ROI of 4.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY, ORLANDO, DETROIT, MINNESOTA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1252-561 over the last three seasons but for -220.99 units and an ROI of -12.2%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 943-612 but for just -6.38 units and an ROI of -0.4%. This 11.8% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and at least considering ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE ML, NEW YORK ML, GOLDEN STATE ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last three seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 434-351, good for 55.3%, +47.9 units, and an ROI of +6.1% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): BKN-NYK, OKC-MEM, BOS-ORL
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHILADELPHIA +4.5 (+4.2)
2. MILWAUKEE +4.5 (+2.5)
3. INDIANA +12.5 (+0.5)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW YORK -15.5 (+3.8)
2. MINNESOTA -5.5 (+1.0)
3. ORLANDO -3.5 (+0.2)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHILADELPHIA +4.5 (+5.5)
2. BROOKLYN +15.5 (+2.8)
3. SACRAMENTO +5.5 (+1.4)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OKLAHOMA CITY -10.5 (+3.9)
2. HOUSTON -4.5 (+1.0)
3. GOLDEN STATE -12.5 (+0.2)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. IND-GSW OVER 228.5 (+2.4)
2. BKN-NYK OVER 227.5 (+2.2)
3. MIN-SAC OVER 237.5 (+1.4)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OKC-MEM UNDER 231.5 (-6.0)
2. BOS-ORL UNDER 227.5 (-0.4)
3. HOU-MIL UNDER 232.5 (-0.2)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHILADELPHIA +4.5 (+2.9)
2(tie). MEMPHIS +10.5 (+1.3)
MILWAUKEE +4.5 (+1.3)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW YORK -15.5 (+4.4)
2. MINNESOTA -5.5 (+1.3)
3. GOLDEN STATE -12.5 (+0.7)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. IND-GSW OVER 228.5 (+4.3)
2. DET-PHI OVER 232.5 (+2.9)
3. BKN-NYK OVER 227.5 (+2.2)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOU-MIL UNDER 232.5 (-2.1)
2. OKC-MEM UNDER 231.5 (-0.8)
3. MIN-SAC UNDER 237.5 (-0.4)
