Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games on 10/25. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s NBA games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Teams that won their previous game but didn’t cover the spread have been bad in their zero rest follow-up game recently, going 68-73 SU and 52-87-2 ATS (37.4%) since the start of the 2022-23 season.
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (+1.5 vs DET)
* Favorites are on a 11-0 SU and 10-1 ATS streak in the Clippers-Thunder series
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-15.5 vs LAC)
* NBA teams that come off a game in which they lost as home favorites flush that result quickly when next a road favorite, going 188-88 SU and 152-120-4 ATS (55.9%) (sub-system: 92-32 SU and 71-49-4 ATS (59.2%) when favored by 4 points or more versus intraconference foes) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA (-6.5 at BKN)
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
* NBA teams playing in the One Day Rest game scenario are 62-33 Under the total vs. teams playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game since 2021
* DETROIT is 21-13 Under the total (61.8%) as a favorite of -1.5 to -5 points since the start of last season
System/Trend Match (PLAY): DET-PHI (o/u at 227.5)
* BROOKLYN is 0-11 SU and 2-9 ATS playing in the back-to-back away/home scenario since Feb ’22
Trend Match (FADE): BROOKLYN (+6.5 vs IND)
* LA LAKERS are 101-62 SU and 96-66 ATS playing with One Day Rest since Nov ’23
Trend Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS (-6.5 at UTA)
* UTAH is 112-79 Over the total playing with One Day Rest since November 2022
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): LAL-UTA (o/u at 237.5)
* NEW YORK is 153-81 SU and 131-99 ATS playing with One Day Rest since November 2022
* NEW YORK is just 8-8 SU and 4-12 ATS (25%) vs. the current lowest-scoring teams in the league (scoring <114 PPG), since the start of last season
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE NEW YORK (-7.5 vs ORL)
* SACRAMENTO is 1-12 SU and 3-10 ATS (23.1%) at home this season versus teams currently winning >60% of their games, since the start of last season
Trend Match (FADE): SACRAMENTO (+3.5 vs MEM)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for today’s games:
(501) LA LAKERS at (502) UTAH
* HOME TEAMS are 4-3 SU and 7-0 ATS in the last seven matchups between LAL and UTA
Trend Match (PLAY): UTAH (+6.5 vs LAL)
(503) INDIANA at (504) BROOKLYN
* Road teams are on a 4-2 SU and 6-0 ATS surge in the IND-BKN series
Trend Match (PLAY): INDIANA (-6.5 at BKN)
* Under the total is 7-1 in the last eight of the overall series as well
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): IND-BKN (o/u at 231.5)
(505) ORLANDO at (506) NEW YORK
* Favorites are 8-2 SU and ATS in the last 10 of the Magic-Knicks set
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-7.5 vs ORL)
(507) LA CLIPPERS at (508) OKLAHOMA CITY
* Favorites are on an 11-0 SU and 10-1 ATS streak in the Clippers-Thunder series
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-15.5 vs LAC)
(509) TORONTO at (510) MINNESOTA
* Home teams are 8-1 in the last nine of the Raptors-Twolves non-conference series
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-1.5 vs TOR)
(511) DETROIT at (512) PHILADELPHIA
* Favorites are on an extended 13-2 SU and 11-4 ATS run in the Pistons-76ers set
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-1.5 at PHI)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based upon some various team strength indicator or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last six NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 146-127 (53.5%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 279-233 (54.5%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 369-298 (55.3%).
System Match (PLAY OVER): LAC-OKC (spread OKC -15.5, o/u at 224.5)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems look for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the teams’ follow-up game results. These systems are from the last six seasons unless noted.
Road favorites bounce back after losing as home favorite
NBA teams that come off a game in which they lost as home favorites flush that result quickly when next a road favorite, going 188-88 SU and 152-120-4 ATS (55.9%) (sub-system: 92-32 SU and 71-49-4 ATS (59.2%) when favored by 4 points or more versus intraconference foes) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA (-6.5 at BKN)
Rout wins are a warning sign for next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 358-272 SU but 293-322-15 ATS (47.6%) over the last eight seasons.
System Match (FADE ATS): MINNESOTA (-1.5 vs TOR)
Massive rebounding differentials
NBA teams that had a -15 or worse rebounding differential have struggled to tighten up in a back-to-back situation, going Over the total at a 116-78 (59.8%) rate since 2021, including 61-35 (63.5%) to the Over in the last 96.
System Match (PLAY OVER): DET-PHI (o/u at 227.5)
NBA road underdogs that had a -20 or worse rebounding differential in their previous game have gone 31-91 SU and 58-64 ATS (47.5%) in their last 122 tries.
System Match (FADE): ORLANDO (+7.5 at NYK)
High TO games can be significant
NBA teams that committed 20+ turnovers in the previous game have done well in expected-tight matchups (within -4 to +4 line range) in the follow-up game, going 105-76 SU and 107-73-1 ATS (59.4%) in their last 181 tries.
System Match (PLAY): MEMPHIS (-3.5 at SAC)
Winning but not covering has been a problem
Teams that won their previous game but didn’t cover the spread have been bad in their zero rest follow-up game recently, going 68-73 SU and 52-87-2 ATS (37.4%) since the start of the 2022-23 season.
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (+1.5 vs DET)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:15 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 234-204 ATS (53.4%) over the last four seasons, good for +9.6 units of profit and a ROI of 2.2%. This is fairly a profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 975-889 ATS (52.3%) over the last four seasons. This has produced -2.9 units and an ROI of -0.2%. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA LAKERS, INDIANA, DETROIT, MEMPHIS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 564-508 ATS record (52.6%), good for +5.2 units of profit and an ROI of 0.5%.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last three seasons, DK supermajority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 552-484 ATS (53.3%). This simple angle has produced +19.6 units of profit and an ROI of +1.9%.
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 3+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 674-593 ATS record, good for 53.2%. This is about a 3% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +21.7 units of profit and an ROI of +1.7%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA LAKERS, INDIANA, NEW YORK, OKLAHOMA CITY, DETROIT, MEMPHIS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in a NBA game. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last four seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 552-460, good for 54.5%, +46 units, and an ROI of +4.5% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): TOR-MIN, ORL-NYK, MEM-SAC
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: Essentially the opposite of #13 above is the situation when so much money is coming in on majority handle on an Over that DraftKings is forced to move a total higher. When 77% or more majority handle bettors are on Over for a game that has seen its total rise since opening, that group has gone 351-275 (56.1%) since January ’23. This recently discovered and best units off all angle has produced +48.5 units of profit for +7.7%.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): LAL-UTA, LAC-OKC, DET-PHI
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. UTAH +6.5 (+2.8)
2. BROOKLYN +6.5 (+1.1)
3. ORLANDO +7.5 (+0.6)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MINNESOTA -1.5 (+1.6)
2. MEMPHIS -3.5 (+1.3)
3. OKLAHOMA CITY -15.5 (+0.6)
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. UTAH +6.5 (+2.7)
2. BROOKLYN +6.5 (+1.6)
3. ORLANDO +7.5 (+0.2)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MEMPHIS -3.5 (+4.5)
2. DETROIT -1.5 (+4.4)
3. MINNESOTA -1.5 (+2.3)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LAL-UTA OVER 237.5 (+0.5)
2. ORL-NYK OVER 224.5 (+0.4)
3. LAC-OKC OVER 224.5 (+0.1)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. IND-BKN UNDER 231.5 (-4.1)
2. TOR-MIN UNDER 230.5 (-2.5)
3. DET-PHI UNDER 227.5 (-0.3)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. UTAH +6.5 (+3.1)
2. ORLANDO +7.5 (+1.4)
3. PHILADELPHIA +1.5 (+0.7)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MEMPHIS -3.5 (+4.0)
2. MINNESOTA -1.5 (+0.9)
3. OKLAHOMA CITY -15.5 (+0.6)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DET-PHI OVER 227.5 (+4.0)
2. MEM-SAC OVER 234.5 (+2.2)
3. ORL-NYK OVER 224.5 (+1.0)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. IND-BKN UNDER 231.5 (-4.5)
2. TOR-MIN UNDER 230.5 (-3.2)
3. LAC-OKC UNDER 224.5 (-0.8)
