NFL First Touchdown
The weeks seem to be falling off the calendar quickly, as we’re now into Week 7 of the NFL season. While we still have more than half of the campaign to go, it seems like it wasn’t that long ago that we were excited about the NFL Kickoff Game. But, it has been and we have six weeks of data to use in the handicapping process, including looking for the First Touchdown Scorer.
Before digging into Week 7, let’s look back at Week 6. I like to track first team TDs by position to see if there are any league-wide trends we can pick up on in terms of red-zone usage. The number in parentheses is how many we’ve had this season by position.
QB: 0 (10)
RB: 10 (68)
WR: 9 (64)
TE: 7 (29)
D/ST: 0 (3)
No TD: 2 (12)
I believe seven is the most in a week for the TE position so far this season. I also believe that’s the first week we’ve had without a QB first team TD. The distribution, though, looks pretty similar to the other seasons that I’ve tracked over the last few years.
We did not add anybody to the frequent flyer list, but Javonte Williams did move up the board with his fourth first team TD.
| Top players (minimum 3 team-firsts) | Team’s First TD | Game’s First TD |
| Derrick Henry (BAL) | 4 | 2 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) | 4 | 1 |
| Chuba Hubbard (CAR) | 3 | 3 |
| Christian Watson (GB) | 3 | 3 |
| Bijan Robinson (ATL) | 3 | 2 |
| Javonte Williams (DAL) | 3 | 2 |
| Josh Allen (BUF) | 3 | 1 |
| Ollie Gordon II (MIA) | 3 | 1 |
| Jaxson Smith-Njigba (SEA) | 3 | 1 |
| Denzel Boston (CLE) | 3 | 0 |
It was a down week for red-zone efficiency, as that came in below 54%. Teams did find the red zone a little bit more than the prior week, but had seven fewer touchdowns. Week 2 is still the worst, given that we had all 32 teams in action, but Week 6 with 28 teams matched Week 2 with 53 red-zone touchdowns.
You can see the weekly breakdowns and the year-to-date results for each team here.
We saw five team TDs on the opening possession, a drop from nine last week and seven in each of the two previous weeks. We’re up to 44 for the season, with 10-6-7-7-9-5 from Weeks 1 through 6.
This is helpful info for the First Touchdown Scorer market, but also when betting first quarters and first halves. Some coaches are better with the scripted drive than others. Also, I track whether or not a team scored on its first possession in the First Touchdown Scorer spreadsheet, put together by our Executive Producer Stephanie Kamerschak, who did this article the first few seasons for us.
2026 First Touchdown (FTD) by Team
| Regular Season | First TD of game/games played |
| Packers | 6/6 (100%) |
| 49ers | 5/6 (83.3%) |
| Colts | 5/6 (83.3%) |
| Jaguars | 5/6 (83.3%) |
| Patriots | 5/6 (83.3%) |
| Rams | 5/6 (83.3%) |
| Panthers | 4/5 (80%) |
| Raiders | 4/6 (66.7%) |
| Texans | 4/6 (66.7%) |
| Bengals | 3/5 (60%) |
| Chiefs | 3/5 (60%) |
| Bears | 3/6 (50%) |
| Cardinals | 3/6 (50%) |
| Cowboys | 3/6 (50%) |
| Falcons | 3/6 (50%) |
| Jets | 3/6 (50%) |
| Ravens | 3/6 (50%) |
| Steelers | 3/6 (50%) |
| Broncos | 2/6 (33.3%) |
| Buccaneers | 2/6 (33.3%) |
| Commanders | 2/6 (33.3%) |
| Eagles | 2/6 (33.3%) |
| Giants | 2/6 (33.3%) |
| Saints | 2/6 (33.3%) |
| Seahawks | 2/6 (33.3%) |
| Titans | 2/6 (33.3%) |
| Dolphins | 1/5 (20%) |
| Lions | 1/5 (20%) |
| Vikings | 1/5 (20%) |
| Bills | 1/6 (16.7%) |
| Browns | 1/6 (16.7%) |
| Chargers | 1/6 (16.7%) |
Bye weeks make the percentages a little bit messier, but it is amazing to see six teams that have only scored one first team TD this far into the season. Shout-out to the Packers who are the only perfect team on the season now. They take on the Lions this week, so we’ll see if they can stay unblemished.
Some nuggets from Week 6:
- 17 of the 26 first team TD scorers were first-timers for this season
- Six of those were a new position group to score first for a team
- The first possession scorers? Ravens, Bears, Packers, Raiders, 49ers; all of them had already had one
- The Browns, Broncos, Lions, Rams, Vikings, Saints, Eagles, and Titans are the only teams without a first-possession TD
- The Bills have gone four straight weeks without scoring the first TD
- The Broncos started 0/4, but are 2/2 since Sean Payton took over play-calling
- The Texans have scored first in three straight weeks
The 2025 percentages have been dropped, as just the 2026 numbers appear in the game list. By the way, the link directs you to the Matchup Page for that game on our website.
With that, let’s get to the Week 7 action and look at some best bets. I’ll be using DraftKings odds because they’re widely available, but SHOP AROUND for the best prices. Sportsbooks are all over the place on the FTD market, and the onus is on you to get as much bang for your buck as possible
NFL Week 7 Schedule and FTD Rates from 2026
Patriots (83.3%) at Bears (50%) – Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET
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Steelers (50%) vs. Saints (33.3%) (Paris) – Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET
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Buccaneers (33.3%) at Panthers (80%) – 1 p.m. ET
Browns (16.7%) at Titans (33.3%)
Giants (33.3%) at Texans (66.7%)
49ers (83.3%) at Falcons (50%)
Colts (83.3%) at Vikings (20%)
—
Broncos (33.3%) at Cardinals (50%) – 4:05 p.m. ET
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Packers (100%) at Lions (20%) – 4:25 p.m. ET
Rams (83.3%) at Raiders (66.7%)
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Chiefs (60%) at Seahawks (33.3%) – 8:20 p.m. ET
—
Cowboys (50%) at Eagles (33.3%) – Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Remember, while the purpose of this article is ultimately to try and pick the first touchdown scorer, this type of intel can help with first quarter and first half betting, plus live betting, so don’t be afraid to use it in that context.
NFL Week 7 First Touchdown Predictions
Lines current at time of publish
Remember – these are first TD odds for the game; you can also use all of the info in this weekly article to bet first team TD at your preferred sportsbook as well.
Houston Texans: Dalton Schultz +950, Tank Dell +3500
I’m taking a couple of shots here on some slightly bigger prices. Schultz is the third favorite on the board, but he also hasn’t caught a TD pass yet this season, despite leading the Texans in targets and receptions. Foster Moreau only has 11 catches, but three are for touchdowns and he’s had Houston’s first TD twice thus far. I think C.J. Stroud wants to reward his main man this week.
And Tank Dell returns after not playing for nearly two years. That would be a great story and surely worth a couple of shekels at a big 35/1 price. Dell had nine red-zone targets back in 2024 and caught five of eight passes for three TD back in 2023. With the way that Stroud is playing right now, I think he has a good shot of putting the ball where he wants to.
Denver Broncos: J.K. Dobbins +600, Courtland Sutton +1200
As mentioned, the Broncos are 2/2 scoring the first TD since Payton took over calling plays and Dobbins has been the benefactor, scoring the first team TD in each of those games. He’s seen a bit of an uptick in his snap count and workload since Payton assumed control of the playbook and he has 12 of the team’s 16 carries for RBs in the red zone.
Sutton leads the team with six red-zone targets, and he continues to have the highest snap count of any skill-position player. He was out there 81% of the time against the Chargers and 77% against the Seahawks. That was 12% more and seven offensive snaps more than Jaylen Waddle last week. So, I’ll take a shot with Sutton here as well.
Green Bay Packers: Josh Jacobs +850, Christian Watson +1100
Last week, it was Matthew Golden who was tipped in this article and did score first. Jacobs comes back this week and he should get the red-zone attempts. To this point, MarShawn Lloyd has 12, Pierre Strong Jr. has six, Chris Brooks has six, and Kaleb Johnson has two. So, the Packers still have had 26 rush attempts in the red zone against 35 pass attempts without Jacobs.
It sure seems like Matt LaFleur and OC Adam Stenavich still want that balance inside the 20 and that seems easier to achieve when Jacobs is out there. He had 52 red-zone rush attempts last season, which was sixth in the league. Golden has 11 targets to Watson’s seven, but Watson leads the team with three first team TDs and he had four of them last season. Jacobs led the team with five.
While the Packers do spread the ball around, we’re getting a good price on Jacobs here with the presence of Jahmyr Gibbs, even though the Lions scored the first TD in Week 1 and haven’t since.
Bookmark the First Touchdown Scorer Tracker, which I will update throughout the season.
