Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Sunday, October 26, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* NBA teams who won their previous game by 25+ points have gone Under the total at a 23-8-1 (74.2%) rate in games 2-5 of the season in the last 32 tries.
System Match (PLAY UNDER ALL): NYK-MIA (o/u at 228), POR-LAC (o/u at 225.5)
* Favorites are on insane 24-2 SU and 21-4-1 ATS run in the BKN-SAS series
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (-11.5 vs BKN)
DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last three seasons, that group produced a 94-70 ATS record (57.3%). This has netted +17 units and an ROI of 10.4%.
System Match (PLAY): SACRAMENTO (+3.5 vs LAL)
Top Team-Specific Scheduling Situation Trends
The following are 40 of the top team-specific trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
* BROOKLYN is 7-14 SU but 14-6-1 ATS playing on the road in the One Day Rest scenario since Nov 2024
10/26 – BROOKLYN at San Antonio
Trend Match (PLAY ATS): BROOKLYN (+11.5 at SAS)
* MIAMI is 17-5 Over the total playing at home in the One Day Rest scenario since Jan 2025
10/26 – Over the total in MIAMI-NEW YORK
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): NYK-MIA (o/u at 228.5)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 268-48 SU but just 150-160-6 ATS (48.4%) over the last five seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL ATS): SAN ANTONIO (-11.5 vs BKN), MINNESOTA (-12.5 vs IND)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #8:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 114-93 (55.1%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 225-176
(56.1%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 295-226 (56.6%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): BKN-SAS (spread at -11.5, total at 227.5), IND-MIN (spread at -12.5, total at 228.5)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(501) BROOKLYN (0-2) at (502) SAN ANTONIO (2-0)
* Favorites are on insane 24-2 SU and 21-4-1 ATS run in the BKN-SAS series
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (-11.5 vs BKN)
(503) BOSTON (0-2) at (504) DETROIT (1-1)
* DETROIT is 3-1 ATS in the last four matchups with Boston
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-4 vs BOS)
(505) CHARLOTTE (1-1) at (506) WASHINGTON (1-1)
* WASHINGTON is 8-1 ATS versus Charlotte since 2023
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (-2.5 vs CHA)
(507) NEW YORK (2-0) at (508) MIAMI (1-1)
* Over the total has converted in five straight meetings between NYK and MIA
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): NYK-MIA (o/u at 228.5)
(509) MILWAUKEE (2-0) at (510) CLEVELAND (1-1)
* Favorites are on 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS run in the Bucks-Cavs divisional set
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-6.5 vs MIL)
(511) INDIANA (0-2) at (512) MINNESOTA (1-1)
* Under the total is 5-1 in the last six of the IND-MIN non-conference series
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): IND-MIN (o/u at 228.5)
(513) TORONTO (1-1) at (514) DALLAS (0-2)
* Over the total is 5-1 in the last six Raptors-Mavs matchups
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): TOR-DAL (o/u at 232.5)
(515) LA LAKERS (1-1) at (516) SACRAMENTO (1-1)
* Underdogs have won and covered five of the last six meetings between the Lakers and Kings
Trend Match (PLAY): SACRAMENTO (+3.5 vs LAL)
(517) PORTLAND (1-1) at (518) LA CLIPPERS (1-1)
* Over the total is 5-1 in the last six of the POR-LAC series at Los Angeles
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): POR-LAC (o/u at 225.5)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted.
Teams losing despite scoring well are dangerous
Since the start of the 2018-19 season, NBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points offensively have bounced back extremely well in the next outing, going 128-131 SU but 134-110-5 ATS (54.9%), including 93-59-1 ATS when installed as underdogs.
System Match (PLAY): BROOKLYN (+11.5 at SAS)
Early-season large wins lead to Unders
NBA teams who won their previous game by 25+ points have gone Under the total at a 23-8-1 (74.2%) rate in games 2-5 of the season in the last 32 tries.
System Match (PLAY UNDER ALL): NYK-MIA (o/u at 228), POR-LAC (o/u at 225.5)
Rout wins are a warning sign for next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 303-238 SU but 241-285-15 ATS (45.8%) over the last seven seasons.
System Match (FADE ATS): MIAMI (+3 vs NYK)
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 325-274 (54.3%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER ALL): MIL-CLE (o/u at 234), TOR-DAL (o/u at 232.5)
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 297-318 SU and 275-332-8 ATS (45.3%) in the next game over the last five seasons.
System Match (FADE): LA CLIPPERS (-8 vs POR)
Massive rebounding differentials
NBA road underdogs that had a -20 or worse rebounding differential in their previous game have gone 20-71 SU and 39-52 ATS (42.9%) in their last 91 tries.
System Match (FADE): BOSTON (+3.5 at DET)
High TO games can be significant
NBA teams that committed 20+ turnovers in the previous game have done well in expected-tight matchups (within -4 to +4 line range) in the follow-up game, going 62-45 SU & 64-42-1 ATS (60.4%) in their last 107 tries.
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS (-1.5 vs TOR)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS YET THIS SEASON
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
To summarize the findings from the full 2024-25 season, the sample contained 1321 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads & totals, while both struggled on money lines. The full season performance by the majority handle on totals last year in the NBA was better than any other sports I have covered. In fact, these were the results:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 660-614 ATS (51.8%), -15.4 units – ROI: -1.2%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 618-645 ATS (48.9%), -91.5 units – ROI: -7.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 842-458 (64.8%). -123.18 units – ROI: -9.5%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 886-421 (67.8%). -137.95 units – ROI: -10.6%
– Majority handle on totals: 708-594 (54.4%). +54.6 units – ROI: +4.2%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 670-621 (51.9%), -13.1 units – ROI: -1%
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4 point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 170-136 ATS (55.6%) over the last three seasons, good for +20.4 units of profit and an ROI of 6.7%. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently. If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT, WASHINGTON, SACRAMENTO
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 748-665 ATS (52.9%) over the last three seasons. This has produced a profit of +16.5 units and an ROI of 1.2%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW YORK, TORONTO, PORTLAND
DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last three seasons, that group produced a 94-70 ATS record (57.3%). This has netted +17 units and an ROI of 10.4%. As a general rule, most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 164 games was only about 4.0% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): SACRAMENTO
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 352-298 ATS record (54.2%), good for +24.2 units of profit and a ROI of 3.7%. This lot of 650 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last three seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 395-348 ATS (53.2%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.2% success rate, they were about 2% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +12.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.6%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): SAN ANTONIO, INDIANA, DALLAS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 494-413 ATS record, good for 54.5%. This is over a 3% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +39.7 units of profit and an ROI of 4.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT, NEW YORK, PORTLAND
DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher, however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last three seasons, they are just 137-153 ATS, good for 47.2%. This is over a 4% drop off compared to the overall majority figures and has resulted in -31.3 units of loss and an ROI of -10.8%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON, CLEVELAND, SACRAMENTO
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1252-561 over the last three seasons, but for -220.99 units and an ROI of -12.2%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 943-612 but for just -6.38 units and an ROI of -0.4%. This 11.8% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and at least considering ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN ANTONIO ML, MINNESOTA ML, DALLAS ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number has favored the Under option over the last three seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 434-351, good for 55.3%, +47.9 units, and an ROI of +6.1% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MIL-CLE, TOR-DAL, LAL-SAC
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 176-126 (58.3%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap. This has been the most profitable angle of all in terms of ROI, producing +37.4 units of profit for 12.4%.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): TOR-DAL
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MILWAUKEE +6.5 (+3.9)
2. BROOKLYN +11.5 (+3.8)
3. INDIANA +12.5 (+2.0)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: LA LAKERS -3.5 (+0.6)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BROOKLYN +11.5 (+3.9)
2. SACRAMENTO +3.5 (+2.6)
3. BOSTON +3.5 (+1.3)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: DALLAS -1.5 (+1.8)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIL-CLE OVER 234.5 (+1.6)
2. BKN-SAS OVER 227.5 (+1.1)
3. BOS-DET OVER 226.5 (+1.0)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHA-WSH UNDER 238.5 (-8.1)
2. NYK-MIA UNDER 228.5 (-4.2)
3. TOR-DAL UNDER 231.5 (-1.6)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MILWAUKEE +6.5 (+3.7)
2. PORTLAND +8.5 (+2.0)
3. BROOKLYN +11.5 (+1.4)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LA LAKERS -3.5 (+0.8)
2. DETROIT -3.5 (+0.1)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BKN-SAS OVER 227.5 (+0.6)
2. BOS-DET OVER 226.5 (+0.1)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHA-WSH UNDER 238.5 (-8.9)
2. POR-LAC UNDER 225.5 (-8.1)
3. NYK-MIA UNDER 228.5 (-7.9)
