The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Thursday, April 9, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* Under the total is 12-2 in the last 14 of the Bulls-Wizards series
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CHI-WSH (o/u at 248.5) 

* NBA road favorites winning 36% of their games or less are on an impressive surge of 100-43 SU and 87-55-1 ATS (61.3%).
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA (-2.5 at BKN) 

#1 UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the MAKINEN EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS: NEW YORK -4.5 vs BOS (projections have line at NYK -6.6) 

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures. 

* NBA teams playing on the road in a One Day Rest scenario are 232-299 SU but 292-231-8 ATS vs. teams in 2 Days Rest games over the last four seasons
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (+4.5 at NYK) 

* NBA teams playing in a One Day Rest scenario are 177-115 Under the total vs. teams in 4th in 10+ Days games over the last two seasons
System Match (PLAY UNDER): BOS-NYK (o/u at 215.5) 

* BROOKLYN is 24-15 Over the total playing at home in the One Day Rest scenario since February 2025
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): IND-BKN (o/u at 224.5) 

* GOLDEN STATE is 39-35 SU and 25-46 ATS playing home games in the One Day Rest scenario since November 2023
Trend Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (-4.5 vs LAL) 

* GOLDEN STATE is 140-108 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since December 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): LAL-GSW (o/u at 225.5) 

* HOUSTON is 24-14 Under the total (63.2%) at home this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-HOU (o/u at 226.5) 

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(567) CHICAGO at (568) WASHINGTON
* Under the total is 12-2 in the last 14 of the Bulls-Wizards series
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CHI-WSH (o/u at 248.5) 

(569) MIAMI at (570) TORONTO
* TORONTO is 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings with Miami
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-3.5 vs MIA) 

(571) BOSTON at (572) NEW YORK
* NEW YORK has won and covered their last three instances of hosting Boston
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-4.5 vs BOS) 

(573) INDIANA at (574) BROOKLYN
* Road teams are on 3-2 SU and 5-0 ATS surge in the IND-BKN set
Trend Match (PLAY): INDIANA (-2.5 at BKN) 

(575) PHILADELPHIA at (576) HOUSTON
* Over the total is 10-1 in the 76ers-Rockets non-conference series since the start of 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): PHI-HOU (o/u at 226.5) 

(577) LA LAKERS at (578) GOLDEN STATE
* Over the total is 11-2 in the last 13 of the Lakers-Warriors divisional rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): LAL-GSW (o/u at 225.5)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 192-68 SU and 152-107-1 ATS (58.7%) run.
System Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-4.5 vs BOS)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #3:
NBA road favorites winning 36% of their games or less are on an impressive surge of 100-43 SU and 87-55-1 ATS (61.3%).
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA (-2.5 at BKN) 

The following handicapping information details betting systems for divisional games. 

Eastern Atlantic Division Betting System #1:
In Eastern Atlantic divisional games, single-digit favorites have gone 100-41 SU and 83-65-3 ATS (56.1%) since the start of the 2022-23 season.
System Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-4.5 vs BOS)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted. 

Rout wins are a warning sign for the next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 351-265 SU but 285-316-15 ATS (47.4%) over the last seven seasons.
System Match (FADE ATS): TORONTO (-3.5 vs MIA) 

High TO games can be significant
NBA teams that committed 20+ turnovers in the previous game have done well in expected-tight matchups (within -4 to +4 line range) in the follow-up game, going 100-70 SU and 102-67-1 ATS (60.4%) in their last 170 tries.
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA (-2.5 at BKN)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NBA Streak Betting System #14:
Teams reaching winning OR losing streaks of 7 games or more become play against teams in general, going 336-383-4 ATS (46.7%) in the next outing since 2020.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+6.5 vs CHI), HOUSTON (-4.5 vs PHI)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:30 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2025-26 season, the sample contained 633 games, and for the most part, majority bettors have lost on all six point spread, money line, and total categories. In fact, this has been the worst half-season they have endured since I started studying this subject a few years ago. Here are the results:

– Majority handle on point spreads: 291-335 ATS (46.5%), -77.5 units – ROI: -12.4%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 287-323 ATS (47%), -68.3 units – ROI: -11.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 379-247 (60.5%). -123.2 units – ROI: -20.2%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 404-227 (64%). -113.7 units – ROI: -18%
– Majority handle on totals: 306-310 (49.7%). -35 units – ROI: -5.7%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 307-318 (49.1%), -42.8 units – ROI: -6.8% 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 868-785 ATS (52.5%) over the last 3+ seasons. This has produced a profit of +4.5 units and an ROI of 0.3%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. However, it is down over 20 units so far in 2025-26, so perhaps tread lightly. Even still, remember that handle is the total amount of money on a game and is generally considered sharper. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): CHICAGO, INDIANA 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 456-412 ATS record (52.5%), good for +2.8 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%. This is another system that has dropped a bit this season but has still outperformed the normal levels by a decent amount. We’ll see if it can stay positive in the second half of the season.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): INDIANA, NEW YORK, GOLDEN STATE 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 3+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 579-508 ATS record, good for 54.2%. This is over a 4% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +20.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.9%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO, INDIANA 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher, however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last three seasons, they are just 166-189 ATS, good for 46.8%. This is a 3%+ drop compared to the overall majority figures and has resulted in -41.9 units of loss and an ROI of -11.8%.
System Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1454-663 over the last 3+ seasons but for -277.83 units and an ROI of -13.1%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 1113-757 but for -72.73 units and an ROI of -3.9%. This 9.2% disparity warrants outright fading ML majorities on home teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TORONTO ML, NEW YORK ML, HOUSTON ML, GOLDEN STATE ML 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last 3+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 484-393, good for 55.2%, +51.7 units, and an ROI of +5.9% since January 2023.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CHI-WSH

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 409-367 (52.7%) for +5.3 units and an ROI of +0.7% since January 2023.
System Match (PLAY): UNDER – MIA-TOR 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a bit more than 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 408-345 (54.2%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 398-359 (52.6%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Match (PLAY): OVER – BOS-NYK 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 200-153 (56.7%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap. This has been the most profitable angle of all in terms of ROI, producing +31.7 units of profit for 9%.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CHI-WSH 

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses). 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BROOKLYN +2.5 (+1.0)
2. PHILADELPHIA +4.5 (+0.1)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. TORONTO -3.5 (+1.2)
2. CHICAGO -6.5 (+0.9)
3. NEW YORK -4.5 (+0.8) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. WASHINGTON +6.5 (+0.9)
2. MIAMI +3.5 (+0.1) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW YORK -4.5 (+2.1)
2. GOLDEN STATE -4.5 (+0.8)
3. INDIANA -2.5 (+0.2) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BOS-NYK OVER 215.5 (+2.6)
2. PHI-HOU OVER 226.5 (+1.0)
3. MIA-TOR OVER 237.5 (+0.4) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. IND-BKN UNDER 223.5 (-2.3)
2. CHI-WSH UNDER 248.5 (-0.7)
3. LAL-GSW UNDER 225.5 (-0.4) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BROOKLYN +2.5 (+0.7)
2. BOSTON +4.5 (+0.3)
3. PHILADELPHIA +4.5 (+0.2) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GOLDEN STATE -4.5 (+1.2)
2. CHICAGO -6.5 (+0.8)
3. TORONTO -3.5 (+0.4) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIA-TOR OVER 237.5 (+0.2)
2. PHI-HOU OVER 226.5 (+0.1) 

Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BOS-NYK UNDER 215.5 (-7.3)
2. IND-BKN UNDER 223.5 (-2.7)
3. CHI-WSH UNDER 248.5 (-0.9)

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