The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Thursday, December 18, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* Teams having lost their last four games or more have been fantastic in the rare role of playing as road favorites, going 46-15 SU and 41-18-2 ATS (69.5%) in their last 61 tries.
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-6.5 at BKN) 

* NBA teams playing at home in 2 Days Rest scenario were 18-3 Over the total vs. teams in 3rd in 8+ Days games since start of last season
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): DET-DAL (o/u at 228.5), ORL-DEN (o/u at 236.5), LAL-UTA (o/u at 243.5) 

* Divisional single-digit home underdogs winning 38% of their games or less have gone 37-128 SU and 67-93-5 ATS (41.9%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHARLOTTE (+5.5 vs ATL), NEW ORLEANS (+9.5 vs HOU) 

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures. 

* NBA teams playing on the road in 2 Days Rest scenario are 20-38 SU and 19-36-3 ATS vs. teams in 3rd in 8+ Days games over the last four seasons
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT (-6.5 at DAL), HOUSTON (-9.5 at NOP), TORONTO (-4.5 at MIL), MIAMI (-6.5 at BKN), LA CLIPPERS (+18.5 at OKC) 

* NBA teams playing at home in 3+ Days Rest scenario are 82-43 SU and 76-47-2 ATS vs. teams in One Day Rest games over the last four seasons
* INDIANA is 24-8 SU and ATS playing in 3rd in 8+ Days games since March 2021
System/Trend Match (PLAY): INDIANA (+4.5 vs NYK) 

* NBA teams playing at home in One Day Rest scenario are 49-14 Under the total vs. teams in 3rd in 8+ Days games over the last three seasons
* NBA teams playing at home in One Day Rest scenario are 70-27 Under the total vs. teams in 4th in 10+ Days games over the last two seasons
Systems Match (PLAY UNDER): WSH-SAS (o/u at 241.5) 

* NBA teams playing at home in 3rd in 8+ Days scenario are 94-70 Under the total vs. teams in 3rd in 8+ Days games over the last three seasons
System Matches: PLAY UNDER IN ALL 12 GAMES TONIGHT 

* NBA teams playing in 2 Days Rest scenario were 33-22 Over the total vs. teams in 3rd in 8+ Days games since start of last season
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): TOR-MIL (o/u at 218.5), DET-DAL (o/u at 228.5), MIA-BKN (o/u at 227.5), HOU-NOP (o/u at 233.5), ORL-DEN (o/u at 236.5), LAC-OKC (o/u at 222.5), LAL-UTA (o/u at 243.5)

* NBA teams playing at home in 2 Days Rest scenario were 18-3 Over the total vs. teams in 3rd in 8+ Days games since start of last season
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): DET-DAL (o/u at 228.5), ORL-DEN (o/u at 236.5), LAL-UTA (o/u at 243.5) 

* LA CLIPPERS are 16-5 Under the total playing in 4th in 10+ Days games since Jan 2024
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): LAC-OKC (o/u at 222.5) 

* MIAMI is 11-6 SU and 12-5 ATS playing on the road in the 2 Days Rest scenario since Jun 2023
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-6.5 at BKN) 

* PHOENIX is 11-15 SU and 7-18 ATS playing in all 3rd in 8+ Days games since Oct 2021
Trend Match (FADE): PHOENIX (+1.5 vs GSW)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games: 

(513) LA CLIPPERS at (514) OKLAHOMA CITY
* Favorites are 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS in the last nine of the LAC-OKC series
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-17.5 vs LAC) 

(515) WASHINGTON at (516) SAN ANTONIO
* Over the total is 15-4 in the last 19 of the WSH-SAS non-conference series
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): WSH-SAS (o/u at 241.5) 

(519) ATLANTA at (520) CHARLOTTE
* CHARLOTTE has covered four of their last five games ATS hosting Atlanta
Trend Match (PLAY): CHARLOTTE (+5.5 vs ATL) 

(521) NEW YORK at (522) INDIANA
* Over the total has converted in five of the last six meetings at Indiana
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): NYK-IND (o/u at 226.5) 

(523) MIAMI at (524) BROOKLYN
* Under the total is 7-1 in the last eight of the Heat-Nets series at Brooklyn
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIA-BKN (o/u at 227.5) 

(525) TORONTO at (526) MILWAUKEE
* MILWAUKEE is 4-1 SU and 3-1-1 ATS in the last five games versus TOR at Fiserv Forum
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (+4.5 vs TOR) 

(527) HOUSTON at (528) NEW ORLEANS
* Favorites are on extended 12-2 SU and ATS run in the last 14 of the HOU-NOP divisional series at the Smoothie King Center
Trend Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-9.5 at NOP) 

(529) DETROIT at (530) DALLAS
* Underdogs are 4-1 ATS in the last five of the Pistons-Mavs non-conference series at Dallas
Trend Match (PLAY): DALLAS (+6.5 vs DET) 

(531) ORLANDO at (532) DENVER
* Over the total is 7-2 in the Magic-Nuggets set in Denver since 2017
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): ORL-DEN (o/u at 236.5) 

(533) LA LAKERS at (534) UTAH
* UTAH is 6-1 ATS in the last seven games hosting LA Lakers
Trend Match (PLAY): UTAH (+7.5 vs LAL) 

(535) GOLDEN STATE at (536) PHOENIX
* Favorites are 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in the last eight of the GSW-PHX  divisional rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE (-1.5 at PHX)

(537) SACRAMENTO at (538) PORTLAND
* Home teams are 6-0 SU and 5-0-1 ATS in the last six of the Kings-Trail Blazers series
Trend Match (PLAY): PORTLAND (-8.5 vs SAC) 

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #6:
Divisional single-digit home underdogs winning 38% of their games or less have gone 37-128 SU and 67-93-5 ATS (41.9%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHARLOTTE (+5.5 vs ATL), NEW ORLEANS (+9.5 vs HOU) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:
Short home underdogs of 4.5 points or less with totals < 230 are on a 44-14 OVER (75.9%) surge in the last 58 games.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): NYK-IND (spread +4.5, total 225.5), TOR-MIL (spread +4.5, total 218.5) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #8:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, depending on the type of matchup. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 125-100 (55.6%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 230-187 (55.2%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 325-244 (57.1%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – LAC-OKC (spread -18.5, total 221.5), WSH-SAS (spread -14.5, total 241.5)

The following handicapping information details betting systems for divisional games. 

Eastern Southeast Division Betting System #3:
In Eastern Southeast divisional games, home teams on two days rest or more are 19-6 to the Over (76%) since the start of the 2022-23 season.
System Match (PLAY OVER): ATL-CHA (o/u at 238.5) 

Western Southwest Division Betting System #1:
In Western Southwest divisional games, favorites of 3.5 points or more are on a 43-9 SU and 34-18 ATS (65.4%) run since mid-February 2024.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-9.5 at NOP) 

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted. 

Back-to-back scoring outbursts could be the beginning of a trend
NBA teams coming off back-to-back wins in which they scored 130+ points in each outing have gone 29-17 ATS (63%) as underdogs since 2018.
System Match (PLAY): UTAH (+7.5 vs LAL) 

Road favorites bounce back after losing as home favorite
NBA teams that come off a game in which they lost as home favorites flush that result quickly when next a road favorite, going 165-74 SU and 136-99-4 ATS (57.9%) (sub-system: 80-26 SU and 65-37-4 ATS (63.7%) when favored by 4 points or more versus intraconference foes) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-6.5 at BKN)

Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 288-160 SU but just 186-249-13 ATS (42.8%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-5.5 at CHA) 

Rout wins are a warning sign for next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20-points or more are 317-244 SU but 252-294-15 ATS (46.2%) over the last seven seasons.
System Match (FADE ATS): BROOKLYN (+6.5 vs MIA) 

Upset wins over conference opponents lead to next game stumbles versus non-conference opponents
NBA teams coming off an upset win over an intra-conference foe have had problems when facing a non-conference opponent in the next game, going just 162-195 SU and 157-196-4 ATS (44.5%) since late-January 2021.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+14.5 at SAS), DETROIT (-6.5 at DAL), DENVER (-6.5 vs ORL) 

Divisional upsets can create urgency
NBA teams that lose as favorites to divisional opponents have bounced back well when facing another divisional foe, going 105-66 SU and 100-68-3 ATS (59.5%) in that follow-up try over the last five seasons.
System Match (PLAY): PHOENIX (+1.5 vs GSW) 

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 361-317 (53.2%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER ALL): DET-DAL (o/u at 228.5), LA LAKERS (-7.5 at UTA)

NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 318-330 SU and 292-348-8 ATS (45.6%) in the next game over the last five seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA (-5.5 at CHA), GOLDEN STATE (-1.5 at PHX), PORTLAND (-8.5 vs SAC) 

NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 181-194 SU and 168-197-10 ATS (46%) in that next contest over the last seven seasons.
System Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (-1.5 at PHX) 

Teams not making many free throws bounce back well
NBA teams coming off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing, and are on a 186-158 SU and 191-143-10 ATS (57.2%) run.
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-4.5 at MIL) 

High TO games can be significant
NBA teams that committed 20+ turnovers in the previous game have done well in expected-tight matchups (within -4 to +4 line range) in the follow-up game, going 77-56 SU and 79-53-1 ATS (59.8%) in their L133 tries.
System Match (PLAY): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR MILWAUKEE VS TOR, +4.5 CURRENTLY

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NBA Streak Betting System #2:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5 points or more, going 89-20 SU and 60-46-3 ATS (56.6%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR DETROIT AT DAL, -6.5 CURRENTLY

NBA Streak Betting System #6:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been fantastic in the rare role of playing as road favorites, going 46-15 SU and 41-18-2 ATS (69.5%) in their last 61 tries.
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-6.5 at BKN) 

NBA Streak Betting System #7:
Teams who have lost at least their last four games and are facing an opponent on 2+ Days Rest have had their games go Over the total at a 128-89-2 (59%) rate since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): MIA-BKN (o/u at 227.5), LAC-OKC (o/u at 221.5) 

NBA Streak Betting System #10:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 95-102 SU but 112-83-3 ATS (57.4%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-6.5 at BKN)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.

To summarize the findings from the full 2024-25 season, the sample contained 1321 games, and for the most part, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while both struggled on money lines. The full season performance by the majority handle on totals last year in the NBA was better than any other sport I have covered. In fact, these were the results: 

–  Majority handle on point spreads: 660-614 ATS (51.8%), -15.4 units – ROI: -1.2%
–  Majority number of bets on point spreads: 618-645 ATS (48.9%), -91.5 units – ROI: -7.2%
–  Majority handle on money lines: 842-458 (64.8%). -123.18 units – ROI: -9.5%
–  Majority number of bets on money lines: 886-421 (67.8%). -137.95 units – ROI: -10.6%
–  Majority handle on totals: 708-594 (54.4%). +54.6 units – ROI: +4.2%
–  Majority number of bets on totals: 670-621 (51.9%), -13.1 units – ROI: -1% 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 170-136 ATS (55.6%) over the last three seasons, good for +20.4 units of profit and an ROI of 6.7%. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently.  If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): UTAH 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the ROAD side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 748-665 ATS (52.9%) over the last three seasons. This has produced a profit of +16.5 units and an ROI of 1.2%. This has been a VERY consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO

DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation but when there was a majority handle backing a HOME UNDERDOG in the NBA over the last three seasons, that group produced a 94-70 ATS record (57.3%).  This has netted +17 units and an ROI of 10.4%. As a general rule, most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 164 games was only about 4.0% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA, BROOKLYN, UTAH, PHOENIX

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 352-298 ATS record (54.2%), good for +24.2 units of profit and an ROI of 3.7%. This lot of 650 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA, BROOKLYN, ORLANDO, UTAH

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last three seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 395-348 ATS (53.2%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.2% success rate, they were about 2% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +12.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.6%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): DETROIT, DENVER

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 494-413 ATS record, good for 54.5%. This is over a 3% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +39.7 units of profit and an ROI of 4.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO, UTAH 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last three seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 434-351, good for 55.3%, +47.9 units, and an ROI of +6.1% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MIA-BKN, DET-DAL, ORL-DEN 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 346-301 (53.5%) for +14.9 units and an ROI of +2.3% since January 2023.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): OVER – ATL-CHA, SAC-POR
UNDER – LAL-UTA 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a bit less than 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 396-334 (54.2%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 386-348 (52.6%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Match (PLAY): OVER – TOR-MIL 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 176-126 (58.3%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap. This has been the most profitable angle of all in terms of ROI, producing +37.4 units of profit for 12.4%.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): ORL-DEN

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses). 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. UTAH +8.5 (+3.4)
2. CHARLOTTE +5.5 (+1.6)
3. DALLAS +6.5 (+0.8) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAN ANTONIO -14.5 (+4.0)
2. OKLAHOMA CITY -17.5 (+2.7)
3. PORTLAND -8.5 (+1.4) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LA CLIPPERS +17.5 (+4.0)
2. UTAH +8.5 (+1.5)
3. ORLANDO +6.5 (+1.2) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW YORK -4.5 (+3.2)
2(tie). MIAMI -6.5 (+1.9)
HOUSTON -9.5 (+1.9) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. TOR-MIL OVER 218.5 (+1.0)
2. SAC-POR OVER 238.5 (+0.4)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NYK-IND UNDER 225.5 (-3.1)
2. GSW-PHX UNDER 231.5 (-2.7)
3. DET-DAL UNDER 228.5 (-1.5) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DALLAS +6.5 (+3.8)
2. ORLANDO +6.5 (+3.7)
3. UTAH +8.5 (+1.3) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAN ANTONIO -14.5 (+4.3)
2. MIAMI -6.5 (+4.1)
3. PORTLAND -8.5 (+2.3) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DET-DAL OVER 228.5 (+5.3)
2. WSH-SAS OVER 241.5 (+1.9)
3. TOR-MIL OVER 218.5 (+1.4) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GSW-PHX UNDER 231.5 (-5.3)
2. ATL-CHA UNDER 238.5 (-4.6)
3. NYK-IND UNDER 225.5 (-3.1)

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