Today’s NBA Betting Trends
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Thursday, December 25, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Under the total is 8-1 in the last nine of the Cavs-Knicks series at Madison Square Garden
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-NYK (o/u at 240.5)
* NBA teams that are coming off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing, and are on a 187-158 SU and 192-143-10 ATS (57.3%) run.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-9.5 vs SAS)
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures.
* NBA teams playing on the road in One Day Rest scenario are 202-260 SU but 260-194-8 ATS vs. teams in 2 Days Rest games over the last four seasons
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS (+8.5 at GSW)
* HOUSTON is 1-25 SU and 7-18-1 ATS playing its 4th Straight Road game since May 2021
* LA LAKERS are 32-8 SU and 30-10 ATS playing at HOME in OneDayRest games since Jan 2024
Trends Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS (+2.5 vs HOU)
* HOUSTON is 118-88 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since Dec 2021
* NBA teams playing at HOME in OneDayRest scenario were 85-57 Over the total vs. teams in 4th Straigh tRoad games since the start of last Season
System/Trend Match (PLAY OVER): HOU-LAL (o/u at 232.5)
* OKLAHOMA CITY is 38-5 SU and 33-9-1 ATS playing at home in the One Day Rest scenario since Mar ’24
* SAN ANTONIO is 8-17 SU and 6-19 ATS playing on the road in the One Day Rest scenario since Jan 2025
Trends Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-9.5 vs SAS)
* DENVER is 82-51 Over the total playing in 4th in 6 Days games since Mar 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIN-DEN (o/u at 239.5)
Top Daily Head-to-head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(587) CLEVELAND at (588) NEW YORK
* Under the total is 8-1 in the last nine of the Cavs-Knicks series at Madison Square Garden
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-NYK (o/u at 240.5)
(589) SAN ANTONIO at (590) OKLAHOMA CITY
* SAN ANTONIO is 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS in the last five games with OKC
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (+9.5 at OKC)
(591) HOUSTON at (592) LA LAKERS
* LA LAKERS are 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings with HOU
Trend Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS (+2.5 vs HOU)
(593) DALLAS at (594) GOLDEN STATE
* Home teams are 13-4 ATS in the DAL-GSW series since March 2022
Trend Match (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE (-8.5 vs DAL)
(595) MINNESOTA at (596) DENVER
* MINNESOTA is 5-1 SU and ATS in the last six trips to divisional foe Denver
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (+1.5 at DEN)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 170-66 SU and 139-96-1 ATS (59.1%) run.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-9.5 vs SAS)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted.
Back-to-back scoring outbursts could be the beginning of a trend
NBA teams coming off back-to-back wins in which they scored 130+ points in each outing have gone 91-61 SU and 81-69-2 ATS (54%) in the follow-up contest since 2018, including 31-17 ATS (64.6%) as underdogs.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (+5.5 at NYK)
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 183-197 SU and 170-200-10 ATS (45.9%) in that next contest over the last seven seasons.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (+5.5 at NYK)
Teams not making many free throws bounce back well
NBA teams that are coming off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing, and are on a 187-158 SU and 192-143-10 ATS (57.3%) run.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-9.5 vs SAS)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 9:30 a.m. ET. These can AND WILL change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
To summarize the findings from the full 2024-25 season, the sample contained 1321 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while both struggled on money lines. The full season performance by the majority handle on totals last year in the NBA was better than any other sport I have covered. In fact, these were the results:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 660-614 ATS (51.8%), -15.4 units – ROI: -1.2%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 618-645 ATS (48.9%), -91.5 units – ROI: -7.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 842-458 (64.8%). -123.18 units – ROI: -9.5%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 886-421 (67.8%). -137.95 units – ROI: -10.6%
– Majority handle on totals: 708-594 (54.4%). +54.6 units – ROI: +4.2%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 670-621 (51.9%), -13.1 units – ROI: -1%
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 170-136 ATS (55.6%) over the last three seasons, good for +20.4 units of profit and an ROI of 6.7%. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently. If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): DENVER
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 748-665 ATS (52.9%) over the last three seasons. This has produced a profit of +16.5 units and an ROI of 1.2%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DALLAS, HOUSTON
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 352-298 ATS record (54.2%), good for +24.2 units of profit and an ROI of 3.7%. This lot of 650 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DALLAS, HOUSTON
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 494-413 ATS record, good for 54.5%. This is over a 3% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +39.7 units of profit and an ROI of 4.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW YORK, DALLAS, HOUSTON
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1252-561 over the last three seasons but for -220.99 units and an ROI of -12.2%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 943-612 but for just -6.38 units and an ROI of -0.4%. This 11.8% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and at least considering ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW YORK ML, LA LAKERS ML, DENVER ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last three seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 434-351, good for 55.3%, +47.9 units, and an ROI of +6.1% since January ’23.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-NYK
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 176-126 (58.3%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap. This has been the most profitable angle of all in terms of ROI, producing +37.4 units of profit for 12.4%.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-NYK
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LA LAKERS +2.5 (+3.3)
2. SAN ANTONIO +9.5 (+1.5)
3. DALLAS +8.5 (+1.3)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: DENVER -1.5 (+0.6)
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LA LAKERS +2.5 (+2.0)
2. SAN ANTONIO +9.5 (+1.1)
3. DALLAS +8.5 (+0.6)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DENVER -1.5 (+0.9)
2. NEW YORK -5.5 (+1.2)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1(tie). CLE-NYK OVER 240.5 (+1.1)
SAS-OKC OVER 234.5 (+1.1)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DAL-GSW UNDER 229.5 (-4.3)
2. HOU-LAL UNDER 232.5 (-3.1)
3. MIN-DEN UNDER 239.5 (-1.0)
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LA LAKERS +2.5 (+3.9)
2. CLEVELAND +5.5 (+3.1)
3. SAN ANTONIO +9.5 (+1.4)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GOLDEN STATE -8.5 (+4.4)
2. DENVER -1.5 (+1.0)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CLE-NYK OVER 240.5 (+2.0)
2. SAS-OKC OVER 234.5 (+0.9)
3. DAL-GSW OVER 229.5 (+0.4)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOU-LAL UNDER 232.5 (-2.4)
2. MIN-DEN UNDER 239.5 (-1.1)
