The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Thursday, February 12, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20-points or more are 335-256 SU but 268-308-15 ATS (46.5%) over the last seven seasons.  The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 46-75-1 ATS (38%).
System Match (FADE ATS): UTAH (+8.5 vs POR) 

* Under the total is 9-2 in the Mavs-Lakers series since the start of 2023
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): DAL-LAL (o/u at 235.5) 

#1 UNDERPRICED FAVORITE TODAY according to all three MAKINEN RATINGS projections: OKLAHOMA CITY -13.5 vs MIL

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures. 

* NBA teams playing in back-to-back away/home scenario are 24-10 Under the total vs. teams in back-to-back away games over the last two seasons
System Match (PLAY UNDER): MIL-OKC (o/u at 214.5) 

* PORTLAND is 31-30 SU but 42-17 ATS playing in 3rd in 4 Days games since October 2023
Trend Match (PLAY): PORTLAND (-8.5 at UTA) 

* PORTLAND is 72-40 Under the total playing in 3rd in 4 Days games since April 2021
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): POR-UTA (o/u at 238.5) 

* LA LAKERS are 35-13 SU and 33-15 ATS playing at home in One Day Rest games since January 2024
Trend Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS (-7.5 vs DAL) 

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games: 

(557) MILWAUKEE at (558) OKLAHOMA CITY
* Favorites are 8-1 SU and ATS in the last nine meetings between Milwaukee and Oklahoma City
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-13.5 vs MIL) 

(559) PORTLAND at (560) UTAH
* UTAH is 3-2 SU and 5-0 ATS in the last five games hosting divisional foe Portland
Trend Match (PLAY): UTAH (+8.5 vs POR)

* Over the total is 7-1 in the last eight of the series as well
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): POR-UTA (o/u at 238.5)

(561) DALLAS at (562) LA LAKERS
* DALLAS is 6-1 ATS in their last seven trips to Los Angeles to play the Lakers
Trend Match (PLAY): DALLAS (+7.5 at LAL)

* Under the total is 9-2 in the series since the start of 2023
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): DAL-LAL (o/u at 235.5)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #6:
Divisional single-digit home underdogs winning 38% of their games or less have gone 47-133 SU and 80-95-5 ATS (45.7%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE): UTAH (+8.5 vs POR) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 135-106 (56%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 247-208 (54.3%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 337-264 (56.1%).
System Match (PLAY): OVER – MIL-OKC (spread -13.5, total 214.5)

The following handicapping information details betting systems for divisional games. 

WC Northwest Division Betting System #1:
In WC Northwest divisional games, home underdogs are on a 18-19 SU and 27-10 ATS (73%) run since early-November 2024.
System Match (PLAY): UTAH (+8.5 vs POR)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted. 

Allowing 135+ points in a game is a sign of trouble
NBA teams off a game in which they allowed 135+ points and are now favored have gone 187-109 SU but 136-156-4 ATS (46.6%) in the follow-up contest over the last seven seasons. Included among this is a 108-138 ATS (43.9%) mark when not playing the next day.
System Match (FADE): LA LAKERS (-7.5 vs DAL) 

Rout wins are a warning sign for the next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20-points or more are 335-256 SU but 268-308-15 ATS (46.5%) over the last seven seasons.  The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 46-75-1 ATS (38%).
System Match (FADE ATS): UTAH (+8.5 vs POR)

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 386-336 (53.5%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): DAL-LAL (o/u at 235.5) 

Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest as well, going 178-117 SU and 167-121-7 ATS (58%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY): UTAH (+8.5 vs POR) 

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NBA Streak Betting System #10:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 110-123 SU but 131-100-3 ATS (56.7%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS (+7.5 at LAL) 

NBA Streak Betting System #14:
Teams reaching winning OR losing streaks of 7 games or more become play against teams in general, going 298-341-4 ATS (46.6%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of 7 games or more have been terrible in road games, going 37-154 SU and 83-102-6 ATS (44.9%).
System Match (FADE): DALLAS (+7.5 at LAL)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2025-26 season, the sample contained 633 games, and for the most part, majority bettors have lost on all six point spread, money line, and total categories. In fact, this has been the worst half-season they have endured since I started studying this subject a few years ago. Here are the results: 

– Majority handle on point spreads: 291-335 ATS (46.5%), -77.5 units – ROI: -12.4%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 287-323 ATS (47%), -68.3 units – ROI: -11.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 379-247 (60.5%). -123.2 units – ROI: -20.2%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 404-227 (64%). -113.7 units – ROI: -18%
– Majority handle on totals: 306-310 (49.7%). -35 units – ROI: -5.7%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 307-318 (49.1%), -42.8 units – ROI: -6.8%

DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 135-106 ATS record (56%).  This has netted +18.4 units and an ROI of 7.6%. As a general rule, most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 241 games was only about 5.0% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): UTAH 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 456-412 ATS record (52.5%), good for +2.8 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%. This is another system that has dropped a bit this season but has still outperformed the normal levels by a decent amount. We’ll see if it can stay positive in the second half of the season.
System Match (PLAY): UTAH 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last 3+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been mildly successful, as they are 461-417 ATS (52.5%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed just over a 50% success rate, they were about 2.5% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +2.3 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 3+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 579-508 ATS record, good for 54.2%. This is over a 4% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +20.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.9%.
System Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 409-367 (52.7%) for +5.3 units and an ROI of +0.7% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – POR-UTA, DAL-LAL 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a bit more than 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 408-345 (54.2%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 398-359 (52.6%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Match (PLAY): OVER – MIL-OKC

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses). 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DALLAS +7.5 (+1.2)
2. UTAH +8.5 (+0.2) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: OKLAHOMA CITY -13.5 (+0.2) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DALLAS +7.5 (+1.2)
2. UTAH +8.5 (+0.5) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: OKLAHOMA CITY -13.5 (+1.3) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: POR-UTA OVER 238.5 (+0.5) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DAL-LAL UNDER 235.5 (-0.7)
2. MIL-OKC UNDER 214.5 (-0.4) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: DALLAS +7.5 (+2.2) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OKLAHOMA CITY -13.5 (+0.9)
2. PORTLAND -8.5 (+0.6) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: MIL-OKC OVER 214.5 (+0.3) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DAL-LAL UNDER 235.5 (-2.3)
2. POR-UTA UNDER 238.5 (-1.9)

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