Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Thursday, January 15, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* UTAH is 20-7 Under the total playing in the back-to-back away games since March 2021
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): UTA-DAL (o/u at 237.5)
* In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 174-66 SU and 141-98-1 ATS (59%) run.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-5.5 vs PHX)
* Road teams are 10-5 SU and 12-3 ATS in the last 15 of the NYK-GSW non-conference series
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (+6.5 at GSW)
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures.
* NBA teams playing at home in 3+ Days Rest scenario are 83-44 SU and 78-47-2 ATS vs. teams in One Day Rest games over the last four seasons
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-6.5 vs PHX)
* NBA teams playing on the road in One Day Rest scenario are 15-1 Under the total vs. teams in 4th Home in 10+ Days games over the last two seasons
* NBA teams playing in One Day Rest scenario are 153-87 Under the total vs. teams in 4th in 10+ Days games over the last two seasons
Systems Match (PLAY UNDER): PHX-DET (o/u at 222.5)
* ATLANTA is 18-34 SU and 15-37 ATS playing its 3rd Straight Road game since April 2021
Trend Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-4.5 at POR)
* ATLANTA is 131-96 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since Nov ’21
* NBA teams playing at home in One Day Rest scenario were 92-63 Over the total vs. teams in 4th Straight Road games since the start of last season
System/Trend Match (PLAY OVER): ATL-POR (o/u at 232.5)
* OKLAHOMA CITY is 82-15 SU and 60-34-3 ATS playing in all One Day Rest games since AprIL 2024
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-4.5 at HOU)
* HOUSTON is 120-95 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since December 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): OKC-HOU (o/u at 222.5)
* CHARLOTTE is 4-19 SU and 6-17 ATS playing on the road in the 2 Days Rest scenario since April 2022
* LA LAKERS are 33-11 SU and 31-13 ATS playing at home in One Day Rest games since January 2024
Trends Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS (-4.5 vs CHA)
* MIAMI is 24-10 Over the total playing at home in the One Day Rest scenario since January 2025
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): BOS-MIA (o/u at 235.5)
* NBA teams playing in back-to-back away scenario are 24-45 SU and 24-44-1 ATS vs. teams in 4th Straight Home games over the last three seasons
* GOLDEN STATE is 32-32 SU and 22-39 ATS playing home games in the One Day Rest scenario since November 2023
Trends Match: 1 FADE of NEW YORK, 1 FADE of GOLDEN STATE
* GOLDEN STATE is 128-98 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since December 2021
* NBA teams playing at home in One Day Rest scenario were 92-63 Over the total vs. teams in 4th Straight Road games since the start of last season
System/Trend Match (PLAY OVER): NYK-GSW (o/u at 228.5)
* UTAH is 20-7 Under the total playing in the back-to-back away games since March 2021
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): UTA-DAL (o/u at 237.5)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(501) MEMPHIS at (502) ORLANDO
* MEMPHIS is 7-1 SU in the last eight meetings with Orlando
Trend Match (PLAY): MEMPHIS ML (+170 vs ORL)
(503) PHOENIX at (504) DETROIT
* Over the total is 7-1 in the last eight of the Suns-Pistons non-conference series in the Motor City
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): PHX-DET (o/u at 222.5)
(505) OKLAHOMA CITY at (506) HOUSTON
* Over the total is 6-1 in the last seven of the OKC-HOU series
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): OKC-HOU (o/u at 222.5)
(507) BOSTON at (508) MIAMI
* Under the total is 11-2 in the last 13 of the Celtics-Heat set at Miami
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BOS-MIA (o/u at 235.5)
* BOSTON is 7-1 SU and ATS in the last eight meetings with Miami as well
Trend Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-2.5 at MIA)
(509) MILWAUKEE at (510) SAN ANTONIO
* SAN ANTONIO is 6-1 ATS in the last seven games hosting Milwaukee
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (-7.5 vs MIL)
(511) UTAH at (512) DALLAS
* Under the total is 7-1 in the Jazz-Mavs set since the start of 2024
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): UTA-DAL (o/u at 237.5)
(513) NEW YORK at (514) GOLDEN STATE
* Road teams are 10-5 SU and 12-3 ATS in the last 15 of the NYK-GSW non-conference series
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (+6.5 at GSW)
(515) ATLANTA at (516) PORTLAND
* Underdogs are 6-2 ATS in the last eight of the ATL-POR set
Trend Match (PLAY): PORTLAND (+4.5 vs ATL)
(517) CHARLOTTE at (518) LA LAKERS
* Over the total is 5-2 in the last seven of theHornets-Lakers non-conference series in Los Angeles
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CHA-LAL (o/u at 233.5)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 174-66 SU and 141-98-1 ATS (59%) run.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-5.5 vs PHX)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 131-98 SU and 133-93-3 ATS (58.8%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): UTAH (+2.5 at DAL)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted.
Allowing 135+ points in a game is a sign of trouble
NBA teams off of a game in which they allowed 135+ points and are now favored have gone 181-104 SU but 131-150-4 ATS (46.6%) in the follow-up contest over the last seven seasons. Included among this is a 106-132 ATS (44.5%) mark when not playing the next day.
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-4.5 at POR)
Rout wins are a warning sign for next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 326-251 SU but 263-299-15 ATS (46.8%) over the last seven seasons.
System Match (FADE ATS): LA LAKERS (-4.5 vs CHA)
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 375-325 (53.6%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): MEM-ORL (o/u at 228.5)
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 328-341 SU and 302-359-8 ATS (45.7%) in the next game over the last five seasons.
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-4.5 at POR)
High TO games can be significant
NBA teams that committed 20+ turnovers in the previous game have done well in expected-tight matchups (within -4 to +4 line range) in the follow-up game, going 85-58 SU and 88-54-1 ATS (62%) in their last 143 tries.
System Match (PLAY): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR PORTLAND vs ATL, +4.5 CURRENTLY
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
To summarize the findings from the full 2024-25 season, the sample contained 1321 games, and for the most part, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while both struggled on money lines. The full season performance by the majority handle on totals last year in the NBA was better than any other sport I have covered. In fact, these were the results:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 660-614 ATS (51.8%), -15.4 units – ROI: -1.2%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 618-645 ATS (48.9%), -91.5 units – ROI: -7.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 842-458 (64.8%). -123.18 units – ROI: -9.5%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 886-421 (67.8%). -137.95 units – ROI: -10.6%
– Majority handle on totals: 708-594 (54.4%). +54.6 units – ROI: +4.2%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 670-621 (51.9%), -13.1 units – ROI: -1%
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 170-136 ATS (55.6%) over the last three seasons, good for +20.4 units of profit and an ROI of 6.7%. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently. If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DALLAS, PORTLAND
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 748-665 ATS (52.9%) over the last three seasons. This has produced a profit of +16.5 units and an ROI of 1.2%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHOENIX, OKLAHOMA CITY, BOSTON, CHARLOTTE
DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last three seasons, that group produced a 94-70 ATS record (57.3%). This has netted +17 units and an ROI of 10.4%. As a general rule, most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 164 games was only about 4.0% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): PORTLAND
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 352-298 ATS record (54.2%), good for +24.2 units of profit and an ROI of 3.7%. This lot of 650 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHOENIX, PORTLAND, CHARLOTTE
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last three seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 395-348 ATS (53.2%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.2% success rate, they were about 2% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +12.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.6%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): ORLANDO, PORTLAND, CHARLOTTE
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 494-413 ATS record, good for 54.5%. This is over a 3% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +39.7 units of profit and an ROI of 4.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON, DALLAS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last three seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 434-351, good for 55.3%, +47.9 units, and an ROI of +6.1% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MEM-ORL, MIL-SAS, UTA-DAL, NYK-GSW
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 346-301 (53.5%) for +14.9 units and an ROI of +2.3% since January ’23.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): OVER – MEM-ORL, BOS-MIA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 176-126 (58.3%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap. This has been the most profitable angle of all in terms of ROI, producing +37.4 units of profit for 12.4%.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): UTA-DAL
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PORTLAND +4.5 (+4.0)
2. HOUSTON +4.5 (+0.6)
3. MIAMI +2.5 (+0.5)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DETROIT -5.5 (+0.6)
2. ORLANDO -5.5 (+0.3)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PORTLAND +4.5 (+2.8)
2. MEMPHIS +5.5 (+0.8)
3. MILWAUKEE +7.5 (+0.5)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DETROIT -5.5 (+0.9)
2. BOSTON -2.5 (+0.3)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OKC-HOU OVER 222.5 (+3.1)
2. CHA-LAL OVER 233.5 (+3.0)
3. BOS-MIA OVER 233.5 (+1.4)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1(tie). UTA-DAL UNDER 238.5 (-3.1)
PHX-DET UNDER 223.5 (-3.1)
3. NYK-GSW UNDER 228.5 (-0.4)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PORTLAND +4.5 (+5.2)
2. MILWAUKEE +7.5 (+1.2)
3. HOUSTON +4.5 (+0.8)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LA LAKERS -4.5 (+3.7)
2(tie). DETROIT -5.5 (+1.9)
DALLAS -2.5 (+1.9)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NYK-GSW OVER 228.5 (+2.8)
2. CHA-LAL OVER 233.5 (+2.6)
3. OKC-HOU OVER 222.5 (+2.0)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. UTA-DAL UNDER 238.5 (-3.4)
2. PHX-DET UNDER 223.5 (-3.2)
