The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Thursday, January 22, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* In EC Southeast divisional games, home teams on two days’ rest or more are 20-8 to the Over (71.4%) since the start of the 2022-23 season.
System Match (PLAY OVER): CHA-ORL (o/u at 227.5) 

* MINNESOTA is 8-3 SU and 9-2 ATS in L11 games when hosting Chicago
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-9.5 vs CHI) 

* NBA teams playing on home in 3+ Days Rest scenario are 21-12 SU and 23-9-1 ATS vs. teams in 3rd in 4 Days games over the last four seasons
System Match (PLAY): PORTLAND (-1.5 vs MIA) 

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures. 

* NBA teams playing on home in 3+ Days Rest scenario are 21-12 SU and 23-9-1 ATS vs. teams in 3rd in 4 Days games over the last four seasons
* NBA teams playing at home in 3+ Days Rest scenario are 84-44 SU and 78-48-2 ATS vs. teams in One Day Rest games over the last four seasons
Systems Match (PLAY): PORTLAND (-1.5 vs MIA) 

* NBA teams playing at home in 3+ Days Rest scenario are 41-19 SU and 39-19-2 ATS vs. teams in 4th in 6 Days games over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ORLANDO (-5.5 vs CHA), PORTLAND (-1.5 vs MIA) 

* NBA teams playing at home in 3rd in 8+ Days scenario are 48-20 SU and 45-21-2 ATS vs. teams in 4th in 6 Days games over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): ORLANDO (-5.5 vs CHA) 

* NBA teams playing on road in One Day Rest scenario are 209-264 SU but 267-198-8 ATS vs. teams in 2 Days Rest games over the last four seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DENVER (-5.5 at WSH), GOLDEN STATE (-5.5 at DAL) 

* DENVER is 86-54 Over the total playing in 4th in 6 Days games since March 2021
* WASHINGTON is 20-6 Over the total playing at home in the 2 Days Rest scenario since December 2020
Trends Match (PLAY OVER): DEN-WSH (o/u at 228.5)

* GOLDEN STATE is 131-98 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since December 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): GSW-DAL (o/u at 233.5)

* PHILADELPHIA is 8-19 SU and 10-17 ATS playing in 3rd in 4 Days games since November 2024
Trend Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (+2.5 vs HOU) 

* HOUSTON is 120-98 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since December 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): HOU-PHI (o/u at 220.5) 

* SAN ANTONIO is 10-18 SU and 8-20 ATS playing on the road in the One Day Rest scenario since January 2025
Trend Match (FADE): SAN ANTONIO (-12.5 at UTA) 

* UTAH is 97-66 Over the total playing in One Day Rest games since November 2022
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SAS-UTA (o/u at 236.5) 

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games: 

(529) DENVER at (530) WASHINGTON
* Although just 2-3 SU, WASHINGTON is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings with Denver
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+5.5 vs DEN) 

(531) CHARLOTTE at (532) ORLANDO
* ORLANDO is 10-2 SU and ATS in the last 12 games with divisional foe Charlotte
Trend Match (PLAY): ORLANDO (-5.5 vs CHA) 

(533) HOUSTON at (534) PHILADELPHIA
* Over the total is 9-1 in the last 10 of the Rockets-76ers non-conference series
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): HOU-PHI (o/u at 220.5)

(535) GOLDEN STATE at (536) DALLAS
* Home teams are on an extended 14-4 SU and ATS run in the Warriors-Mavs series, including DALLAS being 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS in the last nine hosting Golden State
Trend Match (PLAY): DALLAS (+5.5 vs GSW)

(537) CHICAGO at (538) MINNESOTA
* MINNESOTA is 8-3 SU and 9-2 ATS in the last 11 games when hosting Chicago
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-9.5 vs CHI) 

(539) SAN ANTONIO at (540) UTAH
* Road teams are 9-2 ATS in the last 11 of the SAS-UTA set
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (-12.5 at UTA) 

(541) MIAMI at (542) PORTLAND
* MIAMI is 11-4 SU and ATS in the cross-country series with Portland since the start of the 2018-19 season
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+1.5 at POR) 

(543) LA LAKERS at (544) LA CLIPPERS
* LA LAKERS are 4-1 SU and ATS in the last five meetings with divisional rival LA Clippers, but did lose last time
Trend Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS (+1.5 at LAC) 

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 131-104 (55.7%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 241-203 (54.3%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 328-259 (55.9%).
System Match (PLAY): OVER – SAS-UTA (spread +12.5, total 236.5)

The following handicapping information details betting systems for divisional games. 

Eastern Southeast Division Betting System #2:
In Eastern Southeast divisional games, road teams playing on a back-to-back are 13-18 SU and ATS (41.9%) since the start of the 2021-22 season.
System Match (FADE): CHARLOTTE (+5.5 at ORL) 

Eastern Southeast Division Betting System #3:
In Eastern Southeast divisional games, home teams on two days’ rest or more are 20-8 to the Over (71.4%) since the start of the 2022-23 season.
System Match (PLAY OVER): CHA-ORL (o/u at 227.5)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted. 

Allowing 135+ points in a game is a sign of trouble
NBA teams off a game in which they allowed 135+ points and are now favored have gone 184-105 SU but 134-151-4 ATS (47%) in the follow-up contest over the last seven seasons. Included among this is a 107-133 ATS (44.6%) mark when not playing the next day.
System Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (-5.5 at DAL), LA CLIPPERS (-1.5 vs LAL)

Road favorites bounce back after losing as home favorite
NBA teams that come off a game in which they lost as home favorites flush that result quickly when next a road favorite, going 170-79 SU and 140-105-4 ATS (57.1%) (sub-system: 82-28 SU and 66-40-4 ATS (62.3%) when favored by 4 points or more versus intraconference foes) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE (-5.5 at DAL)

Rout wins are a warning sign for the next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20-points or more are 328-253 SU but 264-302-15 ATS (46.6%) over the last seven seasons.
System Match (FADE ATS): DALLAS (+5.5 vs GSW)

Divisional upsets can create urgency
Teams that win outright versus divisional rivals as double-digit underdogs have trended sharply Under the total in the next contest, going 63-39-1 (61.8%) in their last 103 tries.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): SAS-UTA (o/u at 236.5) 

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 330-344 SU and 304-362-8 ATS (45.6%) in the next game over the last five seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO (+9.5 at MIN), MIAMI (+1.5 at POR) 

NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 192-206 SU and 181-207-10 ATS (46.6%) in that next contest over the last seven seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO (+9.5 at MIN), MIAMI (+1.5 at POR)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NBA Streak Betting System #14:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of 7 games or more become play against teams in general, going 290-332-4 ATS (46.6%) in the next outing since 2020.
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+5.5 vs DEN) 

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 9:20 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2025-26 season, the sample contained 633 games, and for the most part, majority bettors have lost on all six point spread, money line, and total categories. In fact, this has been the worst half-season they have endured since I started studying this subject a few years ago. Here are the results: 

– Majority handle on point spreads: 291-335 ATS (46.5%), -77.5 units – ROI: -12.4%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 287-323 ATS (47%), -68.3 units – ROI: -11.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 379-247 (60.5%). -123.2 units – ROI: -20.2%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 404-227 (64%). -113.7 units – ROI: -18%
– Majority handle on totals: 306-310 (49.7%). -35 units – ROI: -5.7%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 307-318 (49.1%), -42.8 units – ROI: -6.8%

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 868-785 ATS (52.5%) over the last 3+ seasons. This has produced a profit of +4.5 units and an ROI of 0.3%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. However, it is down over 20 units so far in 2025-26, so perhaps tread lightly. Even still, remember that handle is the total amount of money on a game and is generally considered sharper. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): DENVER, HOUSTON, LA LAKERS 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 135-106 ATS record (56%).  This has netted +18.4 units and an ROI of 7.6%. As a general rule, most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 241 games was only about 5.0% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 456-412 ATS record (52.5%), good for +2.8 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%. This is another system that has dropped a bit this season but has still outperformed the normal levels by a decent amount. We’ll see if it can stay positive in the second half of the season.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): DALLAS, CHICAGO 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last 3+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been mildly successful, as they are 461-417 ATS (52.5%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed just over a 50% success rate, they were about 2.5% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +2.3 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): DENVER 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher, however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last three seasons, they are just 166-189 ATS, good for 46.8%. This is a 3%+ drop compared to the overall majority figures and has resulted in -41.9 units of loss and an ROI of -11.8%.
System Match (FADE): LA LAKERS 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number has favored the Under option over the last 3+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 484-393, good for 55.2%, +51.7 units, and an ROI of +5.9% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): CHA-ORL, CHI-MIN, MIA-POR 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 409-367 (52.7%) for +5.3 units and an ROI of +0.7% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – GSW-DAL
UNDER – CHI-MIN, SAS-UTA 

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses). 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIAMI +1.5 (+4.1)
2. LA LAKERS +1.5 (+3.9)
3. CHARLOTTE +5.5 (+0.5) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOUSTON -2.5 (+1.1)
2. MINNESOTA -9.5 (+0.9)
3. SAN ANTONIO -12.5 (+0.6) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIAMI +1.5 (+4.2)
2. LA LAKERS +1.5 (+3.4)
3. WASHINGTON +5.5 (+2.5) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAN ANTONIO -12.5 (+3.0)
2. GOLDEN STATE -5.5 (+0.6)
3. MINNESOTA -9.5 (+0.4) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIA-POR UNDER 236.5 (-2.4)
2. GSW-DAL UNDER 233.5 (-0.4)
3. HOU-PHI UNDER 220.5 (-0.1) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LAL-LAC OVER 222.5 (+1.2)
2. SAS-UTA OVER 236.5 (+0.6)
3. CHA-ORL OVER 227.5 (+0.5) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIAMI +1.5 (+5.6)
2. LA LAKERS +1.5 (+3.2)
3. CHARLOTTE +5.5 (+0.3) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DENVER -5.5 (+2.3)
2(tie). HOUSTON -2.5 (+1.4)
MINNESOTA -9.5 (+1.4) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOU-PHI UNDER 220.5 (-3.5)
2. MIA-POR UNDER 236.5 (-3.1)
3. DEN-WSH UNDER 228.5 (-1.9) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GSW-DAL OVER 233.5 (+2.3)
2. LAL-LAC OVER 222.5 (+1.9)
3. SAS-UTA OVER 236.5 (+0.5)

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