The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Thursday, January 29, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* Underdogs are on 10-4 SU and 11-3 ATS run in the Heat-Bulls series
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (+1.5 vs MIA) 

* NBA teams playing at HOME in OneDayRest scenario are 59-19 Under the total vs. teams in 3rdin8+Days games over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY UNDER): MIL-WSH (o/u at 221.5) 

* In WC Northwest divisional games, home underdogs are on a 17-18 SU and 26-9 ATS (74.3%) run since early-November 2024.
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (+6.5 vs OKC)

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures. 

* NBA teams playing in back-to-back away/home scenario are 38-34 SU and 32-40 ATS vs. teams in 4th in 6 Days games over the last two seasons
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO (+1.5 vs MIA) 

* BROOKLYN is 11-23 SU but 21-12-1 ATS playing on the road in the One Day Rest scenario since November 2024
Trend Match (PLAY): BROOKLYN (+6.5 at DEN) 

* NBA teams playing at home in One Day Rest scenario are 59-19 Under the total vs. teams in 3rd in 8+ Days games over the last three seasons
* NBA teams playing in One Day Rest scenario are 157-88 Under the total vs. teams in 4th in 10+ Days games over the last two seasons
Systems Match (PLAY UNDER): MIL-WSH (o/u at 221.5) 

* NBA teams playing in back-to-back away scenario are 27-46 SU and 27-45-1 ATS vs. teams in 4th Straight Home games over the last three seasons
System Match (FADE): CHARLOTTE (-4.5 at DAL) 

* NBA teams playing in 3rd in 4 Days scenario are 52-27 Under the total vs. teams in 4th in 10+ Days games over the last two seasons
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CHA-DAL (o/u at 226.5) 

* NBA teams playing on road in One Day Rest scenario are 55-47 SU and 59-41 ATS vs. teams in back-to-back away/home games over the last two seasons
* OKLAHOMA CITY is 86-18 SU and 63-38-3 ATS playing in all One Day Rest games since April 2024
System/Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-6.5 at MIN) 

* NBA teams playing on road in One Day Rest scenario are 55-47 Over the total vs. teams in back-to-back away/home games over the last two seasons
System Match (PLAY OVER): OKC-MIN (o/u at 224.5)

* PHILADELPHIA is 10-19 SU and 12-17 ATS playing in 3rd in 4 Days games since November 2024
Trend Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-11.5 vs SAC) 

* NBA teams playing at HOME in One Day Rest scenario were 99-70 Over the total vs. teams in 4th Straight Road games since the start of last season
System Match (PLAY OVER): SAC-PHI (o/u at 229.5) 

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

 
(561) SACRAMENTO at (562) PHILADELPHIA
* PHILADELPHIA is 9-2 SU and 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 games versus Sacramento
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-11.5 vs SAC) 

(563) MILWAUKEE at (564) WASHINGTON
* WASHINGTON is 2-3 SU but 4-1 ATS in the last five games hosting Milwaukee
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+1.5 vs MIL) 

(565) HOUSTON at (566) ATLANTA
* Under the total is 6-1 in the last seven of the Rockets-Hawks non-conference series at Atlanta
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): HOU-ATL (o/u at 224.5) 

(567) CHARLOTTE at (568) DALLAS
* CHARLOTTE is 4-3 SU and 6-1 ATS in meetings with Dallas since the start of 2022
Trend Match (PLAY): CHARLOTTE (-4.5 at DAL) 

(569) DETROIT at (570) PHOENIX
* Road teams are 8-1 ATS in the last nine of the DET-PHX  non-conference set
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-4.5 at PHX) 

(571) BROOKLYN at (572) DENVER
* Over the total is 8-2-1 in the last 11 of the Nets-Nuggets series
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): BKN-DEN (o/u at 208.5) 

(573) OKLAHOMA CITY at (574) MINNESOTA
* Home teams are on 8-3 SU and 9-2 ATS surge in the last 11 of the OKC-MIN divisional rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (+6.5 vs OKC) 

(575) MIAMI at (576) CHICAGO
* Underdogs are on 10-4 SU and 11-3 ATS run in the Heat-Bulls series
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (+1.5 vs MIA) 

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 131-101 SU and 133-96-3 ATS (58.1%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-1.5 at WSH)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Home teams with a winning record that are underdogs of five-points or more have gone 13-43 SU and 23-31-2 ATS (42.6%) in their last 56 non-conference games.
System Match (FADE): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR PHOENIX vs DET, +4.5 CURRENTLY 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 133-105 (55.9%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 245-205 (54.4%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 329-261 (55.8%).
System Match (PLAY): OVER – SAC-PHI (spread -11.5, total 229.5) 

The following handicapping information details betting systems for divisional games.

Western Northwest Division Betting System #1:
In Western Northwest divisional games, home underdogs are on a 17-18 SU and 26-9 ATS (74.3%) run since early-November 2024.
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (+6.5 vs OKC) 

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted.

Allowing 135+ points in a game is a sign of trouble
NBA teams off of a game in which they allowed 135+ points and are now favored have gone 185-106 SU but 135-152-4 ATS (47%) in the follow-up contest over the last seven seasons. Included among this is a 108-134 ATS (44.6%) mark when not playing the next day.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-1.5 at WSH)

Road favorites bounce back after losing as home favorite
NBA teams that come off a game in which they lost as home favorites flush that result quickly when next a road favorite, going 170-80 SU and 140-106-4 ATS (56.9%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): HOUSTON (-3.5 at ATL), MIAMI (-1.5 at CHI) 

Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 300-166 SU but just 195-258-13 ATS (43%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (-4.5 at PHX) 

Upset wins over conference opponents lead to next game stumbles versus non-conference opponents
NBA teams coming off an upset win over an intra-conference foe have had problems when facing a non-conference opponent in the next game, going just 171-212 SU and 165-214-4 ATS (43.5%) since late-January 2021.
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (+3.5 vs HOU)

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 379-330 (53.5%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CHA-DAL (o/u at 226.5) 

NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 334-345 SU and 307-364-8 ATS (45.8%) in the next game over the last five seasons.
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-11.5 vs SAC) 

Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest as well, going 175-113 SU and 164-117-7 ATS (58.4%) since ’21.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-6.5 at MIN) 

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #5:
Teams having won their last four games and playing on a back-to-back as favorites of 4-points or more versus below-.500 teams are 51-12 SU and 39-24 ATS (61.9%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): CHARLOTTE (-4.5 at DAL) 

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2025-26 season, the sample contained 633 games, and for the most part, majority bettors have lost on all six point spread, money line, and total categories. In fact, this has been the worst half-season they have endured since I started studying this subject a few years ago. Here are the results:

– Majority handle on point spreads: 291-335 ATS (46.5%), -77.5 units – ROI: -12.4%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 287-323 ATS (47%), -68.3 units – ROI: -11.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 379-247 (60.5%). -123.2 units – ROI: -20.2%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 404-227 (64%). -113.7 units – ROI: -18%
– Majority handle on totals: 306-310 (49.7%). -35 units – ROI: -5.7%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 307-318 (49.1%), -42.8 units – ROI: -6.8%

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 868-785 ATS (52.5%) over the last 3+ seasons. This has produced a profit of +4.5 units and an ROI of 0.3%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. However, it is down over 20 units so far in ’25-26 so perhaps tread lightly. Even still, remember that handle is the total amount of money on a game and is generally considered sharper. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE, DETROIT, OKLAHOMA CITY, MIAMI 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 135-106 ATS record (56%).  This has netted +18.4 units and an ROI of 7.6%. As a general rule, most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 241 games was only about 5.0% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 456-412 ATS record (52.5%), good for +2.8 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%. This is another system that has dropped a bit this season but has still outperformed the normal levels by a decent amount. We’ll see if it can stay positive in the second half of the season.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): SACRAMENTO, DALLAS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last 3+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been mildly successful, as they are 461-417 ATS (52.5%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed just over a 50% success rate, they were about 2.5% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +2.3 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): DETROIT, DENVER

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 3+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 579-508 ATS record, good for 54.2%. This is over a 4% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +20.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.9%.
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little highe,r however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last three seasons, they are just 166-189 ATS, good for 46.8%. This is a 3%+ drop compared to the overall majority figures and has resulted in -41.9 units of loss and an ROI of -11.8%.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1454-663 over the last 3+ seasons but for -277.83 units and an ROI of -13.1%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 1113-757 but for -72.73 units and an ROI of -3.9%. This 9.2% disparity warrants outright fading ML majorities on home teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA ML, DENVER ML, MINNESOTA ML 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last 3+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 484-393, good for 55.2%, +51.7 units, and an ROI of +5.9% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MIA-CHI, MIL-WSH, HOU-ATL, CHA-DAL, DET-PHX, BKN-DEN 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 409-367 (52.7%) for +5.3 units and an ROI of +0.7% since January ’23.
System Match (PLAY): OVER – CHA-DAL 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total since January of ’23 has been a bit more than 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 408-345 (54.2%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): UNDER – DET-PHX, BKN-DEN

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MINNESOTA +6.5 (+2.4)
2. CHICAGO +1.5 (+1.5) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DETROIT -3.5 (+2.9)
2. PHILADELPHIA -11.5 (+2.4)
2. CHARLOTTE -4.5 (+1.3) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SACRAMENTO +11.5 (+1.2)
2. BROOKLYN +6.5 (+1.0)
3. MINNESOTA +6.5 (+0.8) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DETROIT -3.5 (+1.8)
2. MILWAUKEE -1.5 (+1.0)
3. MIAMI -1.5 (+0.8) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIA-CHI OVER 237.5 (+2.6)
2. HOU-ATL OVER 223.5 (+1.3)
3. CHA-DAL OVER 226.5 (+0.8) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OKC-MIN UNDER 224.5 (-2.1)
2. BKN-DEN UNDER 209.5 (-0.8)
3. SAC-PHI UNDER 229.5 (-0.5)

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