Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Thursday, January 8, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* NBA teams playing on the road in One Day Rest scenario are 54-43 SU and 58-37 ATS vs. teams in back-to-back away/home games over the last two seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (-7.5 at CHI), DALLAS (-6.5 at UTA)
* NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well in the next contest as well, going 169-112 SU and 160-114-7 ATS (58.4%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-2.5 vs CLE)
* Teams on losing streaks of 7 games or more have been bad in road games, going 34-148 SU and 79-97-6 ATS (44.9%) since 2020.
System Match (FADE): INDIANA (+3.5 at CHA)
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures.
* NBA teams playing in back-to-back away/home scenario are 37-34 SU and 32-39 ATS vs. teams in 4th in 6 Days games over the last two seasons
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO (+7.5 vs MIA)
* NBA teams playing on the road in One Day Rest scenario were 57-44 SU and 55-45 ATS vs. teams in back-to-back home games since start of last season
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA (+3.5 at CHA)
* NBA teams playing on the road in One Day Rest scenario are 54-43 SU and 58-37 ATS vs. teams in back-to-back away/home games over the last two seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (-7.5 at CHI), DALLAS (-6.5 at UTA)
* NBA teams playing on the road in One Day Rest scenario are 52-45 Over the total vs. teams in back-to-back away/home games over the last two seasons
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): MIA-CHI (o/u at 237.5), DAL-UTA (o/u at 240.5)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(553) INDIANA at (554) CHARLOTTE
* Underdogs are 6-4 SU and 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 of the IND-CHA series
Trend Match (PLAY): INDIANA (+3.5 at CHA)
(555) CLEVELAND at (556) MINNESOTA
* Over the total is 6-2 in the Cavs-Twolves non-conference series since the start of the 2021-22 season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CLE-MIN (o/u at 238.5)
(557) MIAMI at (558) CHICAGO
* Underdogs are 10-4 SU and 11-3 ATS in the last 14 meetings between Miami and Chicago
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (+7.5 vs MIA)
(559) DALLAS at (560) UTAH
* Under the total is 7-2 in the last nine of the Mavericks-Jazz set in Salt Lake City
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): DAL-UTA (o/u at 240.5)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 129-95 SU and 131-90-3 ATS (59.3%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA (+3.5 at CHA)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted.
Fade teams off of overtime games
Teams that played in an overtime game the prior day are on a 62-99 SU and 66-90-5 ATS (42.3%) slide in the last 161 games.
System Match (FADE): UTAH (+6.5 vs DAL)
Teams losing despite scoring well are dangerous
NBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points offensively have bounced back extremely well in the next outing when installed as underdogs, going 104-67-1 ATS (60.8%) since the start of the 2018-2019 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA (+3.5 at CHA), UTAH (+6.5 vs DAL)
Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 296-164 SU but just 192-255-13 ATS (43%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): DALLAS (-6.5 at UTA)
Rout wins are a warning sign for the next contest for the hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20-points or more are 322-251 SU but 259-299-15 ATS (46.4%) over the last seven seasons.
System Match (FADE ATS): MINNESOTA (-2.5 vs CLE)
Teams not making many free throws bounce back well
NBA teams that are coming off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing, and are on a 187-161 SU and 192-146-10 ATS (56.8%) run.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (+7.5 vs MIA)
Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well in the next contest as well, going 169-112 SU and 160-114-7 ATS (58.4%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-2.5 vs CLE)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #10:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 100-111 SU but 120-89-3 ATS (57.4%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): UTAH (+6.5 vs DAL)
NBA Streak Betting System #14:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of 7 games or more become play against teams in general, going 287-332-4 ATS (46.4%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of 7 games or more have been terrible in road games, going 34-148 SU and 79-97-6 ATS (44.9%).
System Match (FADE): INDIANA (+3.5 at CHA)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
To summarize the findings from the full 2024-25 season, the sample contained 1321 games, and for the most part, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while both struggled on money lines. The full season performance by the majority handle on totals last year in the NBA was better than any other sport I have covered. In fact, these were the results:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 660-614 ATS (51.8%), -15.4 units – ROI: -1.2%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 618-645 ATS (48.9%), -91.5 units – ROI: -7.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 842-458 (64.8%). -123.18 units – ROI: -9.5%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 886-421 (67.8%). -137.95 units – ROI: -10.6%
– Majority handle on totals: 708-594 (54.4%). +54.6 units – ROI: +4.2%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 670-621 (51.9%), -13.1 units – ROI: -1%
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 170-136 ATS (55.6%) over the last three seasons, good for +20.4 units of profit and an ROI of 6.7%. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently. If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): CHARLOTTE
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the ROAD side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 748-665 ATS (52.9%) over the last three seasons. This has produced a profit of +16.5 units and an ROI of 1.2%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 494-413 ATS record, good for 54.5%. This is over a 3% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +39.7 units of profit and an ROI of 4.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHARLOTTE, DALLAS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1252-561 over the last three seasons but for -220.99 units and an ROI of -12.2%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 943-612 but for just -6.38 units and an ROI of -0.4%. This 11.8% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and at least considering ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHARLOTTE ML, CHICAGO ML, UTAH ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number has favored the Under option over the last three seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 434-351, good for 55.3%, +47.9 units, and an ROI of +6.1% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): IND-CHA, CLE-MIN, MIA-CHI
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 346-301 (53.5%) for +14.9 units and an ROI of +2.3% since January 2023.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): UNDER – IND-CHA
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: UTAH +6.5 (+5.3)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MINNESOTA -2.5 (+1.8)
2. CHARLOTTE -3.5 (+1.6)
3. MIAMI -7.5 (+0.1)
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. UTAH +6.5 (+2.5)
2. CHICAGO +7.5 (+0.9)
3. CLEVELAND +2.5 (+0.6)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: CHARLOTTE -3.5 (+0.1)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DAL-UTA OVER 239.5 (+2.5)
2. IND-CHA OVER 232.5 (+0.2)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CLE-MIN UNDER 238.5 (-1.2)
2. MIA-CHI UNDER 237.5 (-0.2)
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: UTAH +6.5 (+4.2)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MINNESOTA -2.5 (+2.0)
2. CHARLOTTE -3.5 (+1.1)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. IND-CHA OVER 232.5 (+3.5)
2. CLE-MIN OVER 238.5 (+2.2)
3. DAL-UTA OVER 239.5 (+2.1)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: MIA-CHI UNDER 237.5 (-0.3)
