Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Thursday, March 26, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Teams that played in an overtime game the prior day are on a 69-102 SU and 73-93-5 ATS (44%) slide, including 24-40 ATS when a pick em’ or favorite.
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (-4.5 vs NOP)
* CHARLOTTE is 156-112 Under the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since March 2021
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NYK-CHA (o/u at 222.5)
#1 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the MAKINEN POWER RATINGS: SACRAMENTO +15.5 at ORL (projections have line at SAC +12.6)
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures.
* ORLANDO is 122-96 Under the total playing in all One Day Rest games since March 2022
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SAC-ORL (o/u at 230.5)
* NBA teams playing on the road in a One Day Rest scenario were 73-59 SU and 72-59 ATS vs. teams in back-to-back home games since the start of last season
System Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (+4.5 at DET)
* NEW ORLEANS is 16-7 Over the total (69.6%) vs. teams currently winning more than 60% of their games
* DETROIT is 15-6 Under the total (71.4%) as a favorite of -1.5 to -5 points this season
Trends Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in NOP-DET (o/u at 226.5)
* CHARLOTTE is 156-112 Under the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since March 2021
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NYK-CHA (o/u at 222.5)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(501) SACRAMENTO at (502) ORLANDO
* ORLANDO has won and covered all three meetings with Sacramento since the start of last year
Trend Match (PLAY): ORLANDO (-15.5 vs SAC)
(503) NEW ORLEANS at (504) DETROIT
* Under the total is 7-2 in the last nine of the Pelicans-Pistons non-conference set
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NOP-DET (o/u at 226.5)
(505) NEW YORK at (506) CHARLOTTE
* Under the total is 6-1 in the last seven of the Knicks-Hornets series
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NYK-CHA (o/u at 222.5)
* NEW YORK is on an 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS surge versus Charlotte since the start of the 2023-24 season
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (+1.5 at CHA)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 140-114 (55.1%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 267-223 (54.5%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 350-280 (55.6%).
System Match (PLAY): OVER – SAC-ORL (spread -15.5, total 230.5)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted.
Fade teams off overtime games
Teams that played in an overtime game the prior day are on a 69-102 SU and 73-93-5 ATS (44%) slide, including 24-40 ATS when a pick em’ or favorite.
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (-4.5 vs NOP)
Allowing 135+ points in a game is a sign of trouble
NBA teams off a game in which they allowed 135+ points and are now favored have gone 194-114 SU but 141-163-4 ATS (46.4%) in the follow-up contest over the last seven seasons. Included among this is a 113-145 ATS (43.8%) mark when not playing the next day.
System Match (FADE): ORLANDO (-15.5 vs SAC)
Rout wins are a warning sign for the next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20-points or more are 347-265 SU but 281-316-15 ATS (47.1%) over the last seven seasons.
System Match (FADE ATS): CHARLOTTE (-1.5 vs NYK)
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 400-348 (53.5%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): SAC-ORL (o/u at 230.5)
Massive rebounding differentials
NBA road underdogs that had a -20 or worse rebounding differential in their previous game have gone 30-87 SU and 55-62 ATS (47%) in their last 117 tries.
System Match (FADE): SACRAMENTO (+15.5 at ORL)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #9:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been solid in the rare role of playing as double-digit favorites, going 16-3 SU and 13-5-1 ATS (72.2%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): ORLANDO (-15.5 vs SAC)
NBA Streak Betting System #10:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 118-140 SU but 145-111-3 ATS (56.6%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): ORLANDO (-15.5 vs SAC)
NBA Streak Betting System #14:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of 7 games or more become play against teams in general, going 328-374-4 ATS (46.7%) in the next outing since 2020.
System Match (FADE): NEW YORK (+1.5 at CHA)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2025-26 season, the sample contained 633 games, and for the most part, majority bettors have lost on all six point spread, money line, and total categories. In fact, this has been the worst half-season they have endured since I started studying this subject a few years ago. Here are the results:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 291-335 ATS (46.5%), -77.5 units – ROI: -12.4%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 287-323 ATS (47%), -68.3 units – ROI: -11.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 379-247 (60.5%). -123.2 units – ROI: -20.2%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 404-227 (64%). -113.7 units – ROI: -18%
– Majority handle on totals: 306-310 (49.7%). -35 units – ROI: -5.7%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 307-318 (49.1%), -42.8 units – ROI: -6.8%
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 868-785 ATS (52.5%) over the last 3+ seasons. This has produced a profit of +4.5 units and an ROI of 0.3%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. However, it is down over 20 units so far in ’25-26 so perhaps tread lightly. Even still, remember that handle is the total amount of money on a game and is generally considered sharper. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): NEW ORLEANS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 456-412 ATS record (52.5%), good for +2.8 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%. This is another system that has dropped a bit this season but has still outperformed the normal levels by a decent amount. We’ll see if it can stay positive in the second half of the season.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): NEW ORLEANS, CHARLOTTE
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1454-663 over the last 3+ seasons but for -277.83 units and an ROI of -13.1%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 1113-757 but for -72.73 units and an ROI of -3.9%. This 9.2% disparity warrants outright fading ML majorities on home teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ORLANDO ML, DETROIT ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 409-367 (52.7%) for +5.3 units and an ROI of +0.7% since January 2023.
System Match (PLAY): UNDER – SAC-ORL
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SACRAMENTO +15.5 (+2.9)
2. NEW ORLEANS +4.5 (+0.6)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: CHARLOTTE -1.5 (+0.3)
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: SACRAMENTO +15.5 (+2.5)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DETROIT -4.5 (+0.6)
2. CHARLOTTE -1.5 (+0.1)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NOP-DET OVER 226.5 (+1.3)
2(tie). SAC-ORL OVER 230.5 (+0.3)
NYK-CHA OVER 222.5 (+0.3)
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SACRAMENTO +15.5 (+1.8)
2. NEW YORK +1.5 (+1.5)
3. NEW ORLEANS +4.5 (+0.3)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAC-ORL OVER 230.5 (+1.1)
2. NYK-CHA OVER 222.5 (+0.4)
3. NOP-DET OVER 226.5 (+0.3)
