Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Thursday, November 13, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Teams having won their last four games and playing on a back-to-back as favorites of 4 points or more versus below-.500 teams are 50-12 SU and 39-23 ATS (62.9%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): PHOENIX (-4.5 vs IND)
* UTAH is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings with non-conference foe Atlanta
Trend Match (PLAY): UTAH (+2.5 vs ATL)
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
* NBA teams playing on the road in One Day Rest scenario are 47-37 SU and 51-31 ATS vs. teams in away-to-home, back-to-back games over the last two Seasons
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+7.5 at CLE)
* NBA teams playing on the road in One Day Rest scenario are 49-35 Over the total vs. teams in away-to-home back-to-back games over the last two seasons
System Match (PLAY OVER): TOR-CLE (o/u at 238.5)
* ATLANTA is 16-32 SU and 13-35 ATS playing its 3rd Straight Road game since Apr 2021
Trend Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-2.5 at UTA)
* UTAH is 89-58 Over the total playing in One Day Rest games since November 2022
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): ATL-UTA (o/u at 231.5)
* NBA teams playing on road in One Day Rest scenario are 47-37 SU and 51-31 ATS vs. teams in away-to-home back-to-back games over the last two Seasons
* INDIANA is 12-16 SU and 6-21-1 ATS playing in 4th in 6 Days games since November 2024
* NBA teams playing in away-to-home back-to-back scenario are 27-31 SU and 22-36 ATS vs. teams in 4th in 6 Days games over the last two seasons
System/Trend Match: 2 PLAYS, 1 FADE of INDIANA (+4.5 at PHX)
* NBA teams playing on road in One Day Rest scenario are 49-35 Over the total vs. teams in away-to-home back-to-back games over the last two seasons
* INDIANA is 14-1 Over the total playing on the road in 4th in 6 Days games since October 2024
System/Trend Match (PLAY OVER): IND-PHX (o/u at 233.5)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(569) TORONTO at (570) CLEVELAND
* Road teams are 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS in the TOR-CLE series since February 2024
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+7.5 at CLE)
(571) ATLANTA at (572) UTAH
* UTAH is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings with non-conference foe Atlanta
Trend Match (PLAY): UTAH (+2.5 vs ATL)
(573) INDIANA at (574) PHOENIX
* Under the total is 7-1 in the Pacers-Suns set since 2022
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): IND-PHX (o/u at 233.5)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons.
NO QUALIFYING TEAM STRENGTH SYSTEMS TODAY
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted.
Rout wins are a warning sign for next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 308-238 SU but 244-287-15 ATS (46%) over the last seven seasons.
System Match (FADE ATS): UTAH (+2.5 vs ATL)
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 340-296 (53.5%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): ATL-UTA (o/u at 232.5)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #5:
Teams having won their last four games and playing on a back-to-back as favorites of 4 points or more versus below-.500 teams are 50-12 SU and 39-23 ATS (62.9%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): PHOENIX (-4.5 vs IND)
NBA Streak Betting System #13:
When teams on alternate streaks of at least four games go head-to-head, the teams on the losing streaks have gone 35-78 SU but 61-52 ATS (54%) over the last five seasons.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): INDIANA (+4.5 at PHX)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
To summarize the findings from the full 2024-25 season, the sample contained 1321 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while both struggled on money lines. The full season performance by the majority handle on totals last year in the NBA was better than any other sport I have covered. In fact, these were the results:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 660-614 ATS (51.8%), -15.4 units – ROI: -1.2%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 618-645 ATS (48.9%), -91.5 units – ROI: -7.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 842-458 (64.8%). -123.18 units – ROI: -9.5%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 886-421 (67.8%). -137.95 units – ROI: -10.6%
– Majority handle on totals: 708-594 (54.4%). +54.6 units – ROI: +4.2%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 670-621 (51.9%), -13.1 units – ROI: -1%
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 748-665 ATS (52.9%) over the last three seasons. This has produced a profit of +16.5 units and an ROI of 1.2%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-2.5 at UTA)
DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning number of bets. When 70% or more of the number of bets have been on a home side of an ATS wager since January ‘23, this “super” majority group has gone just 92-129 ATS (41.6%), well below the overall performance of all majorities. This has resulted in a net loss of -49.9 units for an ROI of -22.6%.
System Match (FADE): PHOENIX (-4.5 vs IND)
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last three seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 395-348 ATS (53.2%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.2% success rate, they were about 2% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +12.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.6%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (-2.5 at UTA), PHOENIX (-4.5 vs IND)
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 494-413 ATS record, good for 54.5%. This is over a 3% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +39.7 units of profit and an ROI of 4.4%.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-7.5 vs TOR)
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1,252-561 over the last three seasons but for -220.99 units and an ROI of -12.2%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 943-612 but for just -6.38 units and an ROI of -0.4%. This 11.8% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and at least considering ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND ML (-305 vs TOR), PHOENIX ML (-180 vs IND)
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 346-301 (53.5%) for +14.9 units and an ROI of +2.3% since January ’23.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): OVER – IND-PHX (o/u at 233.5)
UNDER – TOR-CLE (o/u at 238.5)
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: TORONTO +7.5 (+2.5)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHOENIX -4.5 (+1.5)
2. ATLANTA -2.5 (+0.3)
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. TORONTO +7.5 (+5.1)
2. UTAH +2.5 (+0.8)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: PHOENIX -4.5 (+1.2)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. TOR-CLE OVER 238.5 (+1.5)
2. IND-PHX OVER 233.5 (+1.2)
3. ATL-UTA OVER 231.5 (+1.1)
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. TORONTO +7.5 (+1.2)
2. UTAH +2.5 (+0.7)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: PHOENIX -4.5 (+2.0)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ATL-UTA OVER 231.5 (+2.5)
2. TOR-CLE OVER 238.5 (+0.6)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: IND-PHX UNDER 233.5 (-1.8)
