The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games on 10/29. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s NBA games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

* NEW ORLEANS is 11-2 ATS in the last 13 meetings with Sacramento
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (-5.5 vs SAC)

* NBA teams playing in the back-to-back home/away game scenario are 26-60 SU and 33-52 ATS vs. teams playing a 4th Home in 6 Days game over the last three seasons
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (+1.5 at ATL)

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether from how much rest they’ve had before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they handle injuries and workloads under schedule pressure.

* NBA teams playing in the back-to-back home/away game scenario are 26-60 SU and 33-52 ATS vs. teams playing a 4th Home in 6 Days game over the last three seasons
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (+1.5 at ATL)

* NBA teams playing in the back-to-back home game scenario were 28-37 SU and 24-41 ATS vs. teams playing a 3rd in 4 Days game last season
* ATLANTA is 3-8 SU and 2-9 ATS (18.2%) at a home favorite of -1 to-5 points since the start of last season
System/Trend Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-1.5 vs CLE)

* PORTLAND is 25-14 Over the total (64.1%) in their last 39 games as a favorite
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MEM-POR (o/u at 232.5)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(565) CLEVELAND at (566) ATLANTA
* Home teams are 9-2 SU and ATS in the last 11 of the Cavs-Hawks series
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-1.5 vs CLE)

(567) SACRAMENTO at (568) NEW ORLEANS
* NEW ORLEANS is 11-2 ATS in the last 13 meetings with Sacramento
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (-5.5 vs SAC)
* Under the total is 7-1 in the last eight of the series at Smoothie King Center as well
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SAC-NOP (o/u at 236.5)

(569) MEMPHIS at (570) PORTLAND
* Home teams are 5-1 SU and ATS in the last six of the Grizzlies-Trail Blazers set
Trend Match (PLAY): PORTLAND (-7.5 vs MEM)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based upon some various team strength indicator or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last six NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 199-77 SU and 158-117-1 ATS (57.5%) run.
System Match (PLAY): PORTLAND (-7.5 vs MEM)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 144-118 SU and 147-112-3 ATS (56.8%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR SACRAMENTO at NOP (+5.5 CURRENTLY)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last six seasons unless noted.

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 424-366 (53.7%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): MEM-POR (o/u at 232.5)

NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 367-369 SU and 336-392-8 ATS (46.2%) in the next game over the last six seasons.
System Match (FADE): PORTLAND (-7.5 vs MEM)

Massive rebounding differentials
NBA teams that had a -15 or worse rebounding differential have struggled to tighten up in a back-to-back situation, going Over the total at a 116-80 (59.2%) rate since 2021, including 61-37 (62.2%) to the Over in the last 98.
System Match (PLAY OVER): CLE-ATL (o/u at 237.5)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #10:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 125-158 SU but 156-125-3 ATS (55.5%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (-5.5 vs SAC)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a four-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 236-206 ATS (53.4%) over the last four seasons, good for +9.4 units of profit and an ROI of 2.1%. This is fairly a profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-1.5 vs CLE)

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 570-514 ATS record (52.6%), good for +4.6 units of profit and an ROI of 0.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (-1.5 vs CLE), PORTLAND (-7.5 vs MEM)

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 3+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 679-601 ATS record, good for 53%. This is about a 3% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +17.9 units of profit and an ROI of +1.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (-1.5 vs CLE), NEW ORLEANS (-5.5 vs SAC)

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1744-780 over the last three seasons but for -310.98 units and an ROI of -12.3%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 1337-879 but for just -47.67 units and an ROI of -2.2%. This 10%+ disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams consistently.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW ORLEANS ML (-238 vs SAC), PORTLAND ML (-290 vs MEM)

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. When any majority has favored the Under option over the last four seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 558-464, good for 54.6%, +47.6 units, and an ROI of +4.7% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): CLE-ATL (o/u at 237.5), SAC-NOP (o/u at 236.5), MEM-POR (o/u at 232.5)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MEMPHIS +7.5 (+1.8)
2. CLEVELAND +1.5 (+0.7)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: NEW ORLEANS -5.5 (+1.6)

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MEMPHIS +7.5 (+8.3)
2. SACRAMENTO +5.5 (+1.0)
3. CLEVELAND +1.5 (+0.2)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: CLE-ATL OVER 237.5 (+1.1)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MEM-POR UNDER 233.5 (-0.5)
2. SAC-NOP UNDER 236.5 (-0.2)

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MEMPHIS +7.5 (+2.4)
2. CLEVELAND +1.5 (+0.6)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: NEW ORLEANS -5.5 (+3.2)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CLE-ATL OVER 237.5 (+1.5)
2. MEM-POR OVER 233.5 (+0.6)

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