The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Tuesday, January 20, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* Teams that won their previous game but didn’t cover the spread have been bad in their zero-rest follow-up game recently, going 54-66 SU and 42-76-2 ATS (35.6%) since the start of the 2022-23 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHOENIX (+1.5 at PHI), LA CLIPPERS (+3.5 at CHI), SAN ANTONIO (+4.5 at HOU)

* In Western Conference Northwest divisional games, home underdogs are on a 16-18 SU and 25-9 ATS (73.5%) run since early November 2024.
System Match (PLAY): UTAH (+12.5 vs MIN)

* NBA teams playing in A2A b2b scenario are 24-46 SU and 24-45-1 ATS vs. teams in 4th Straight Home games over the last three seasons
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHOENIX (+1.5 at PHI), MIAMI (-3.5 at SAC)

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures. 

* NBA teams playing in H2A b2b scenario were 4-4 SU and 1-7 ATS vs. teams in 4th Home in 6 Days games last season
System Match (FADE): SAN ANTONIO (+4.5 at HOU)

* HOUSTON is 120-97 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since December 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SAS-HOU (o/u at 221.5)

* NBA teams playing on the road in the 2 Days Rest scenario are 16-13 SU and 19-10 ATS vs. teams in A2H b2b games over the last two seasons
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-12.5 at UTA)

* NBA teams playing in A2A b2b scenario are 24-46 SU and 24-45-1 ATS vs. teams in 4th Straight Home games over the last three seasons
System Match (FADE): PHOENIX (+1.5 at PHI)

* NBA teams playing on the road in the One Day Rest scenario were 58-45 SU and 56-46 ATS vs. teams in H2H b2b games since the start of last season
* GOLDEN STATE is 14-16 SU and 7-22-1 ATS playing at home in a 3rd in 4 Days game since November 2023
System/Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+3.5 at GSW)

* SACRAMENTO is 8-14 SU and 6-16 ATS playing in 3rd Straight Home games since November 2024
* NBA teams playing in A2A b2b scenario are 24-46 SU and 24-45-1 ATS vs. teams in 4th Straight Home games over the last three seasons
System/Trend Match: 1 FADE of MIAMI, 1 FADE of SACRAMENTO

* MIAMI is 14-6 Under the total playing in the Away2Away back2back scenario since February 2023
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIA-SAC (o/u at 238.5)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games: 

(501) PHOENIX at (502) PHILADELPHIA
* Favorites are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in the last five of this non-conference series
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-1.5 vs PHX)

(503) SAN ANTONIO at (504) HOUSTON
* Home teams are 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS in the last 10 of the Spurs-Rockets divisional rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-4.5 vs SAS)

(505) LA CLIPPERS at (506) CHICAGO
* Over the total is 5-1 in the last six of Clippers-Bulls non-conference set in the Windy City
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): LAC-CHI (o/u at 226.5)

(507) MINNESOTA at (508) UTAH
* Home teams are on a 4-1 SU and ATS surge in this divisional series
Trend Match (PLAY): UTAH (+12.5 vs MIN)

(509) TORONTO at (510) GOLDEN STATE
* Over the total is 6-1 in the last seven of the Raptors-Warriors series at Golden State
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): TOR-GSW (o/u at 225.5)

(511) LA LAKERS at (512) DENVER
* LA LAKERS are 1-3 SU but 4-0 ATS in their last four visits to Denver
Trend Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS (-2.5 at DEN)

(513) MIAMI at (514) SACRAMENTO
* Over the total has converted in all five meetings between MIA and SAC at the Golden 1 Center since 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIA-SAC (o/u at 238.5)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 176-66 SU and 141-100-1 ATS (58.5%) run.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-4.5 vs SAS)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, depending on the type of matchup. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 130-103 (55.8%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 241-202 (54.4%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 328-258 (56%).
System Match (PLAY): UNDER – MIN-UTA (spread +12.5, total 244.5)

The following handicapping information details betting systems for divisional games.

Western Northwest Division Betting System #1:
In Western Conference Northwest divisional games, home underdogs are on a 16-18 SU and 25-9 ATS (73.5%) run since early-November 2024.
System Match (PLAY): UTAH (+12.5 vs MIN)

Western Southwest Division Betting System #1:
In Western Conference Southwest divisional games, favorites of 3.5 points or more are on a 44-12 SU and 34-22 ATS (60.7%) run since mid-February 2024.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-4.5 vs SAS)

NBA Extreme Stats Next-Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted. 

Allowing 135+ points in a game is a sign of trouble
NBA teams off a game in which they allowed 135+ points and are now favored have gone 182-105 SU but 132-151-4 ATS (46.6%) in the follow-up game over the last seven seasons.
System Match (FADE): MIAMI (-3.5 at SAC)

Back-to-back scoring outburst could be the beginning of a trend
NBA teams coming off back-to-back wins in which they scored 130+ points in each outing have gone 93-62 SU and 84-69-2 ATS (54.9%) in the follow-up game since 2018.
System Match (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE (-3.5 vs TOR)

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 377-328 (53.5%) since 2021.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): PHX-PHI (o/u at 222.5), LAC-CHI (o/u at 226.5)

NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3-point field goal attempts in a game have responded the next time out by going just 328-344 SU and 302-362-8 ATS (45.5%) over the last five seasons.
System Match (FADE): PHOENIX (+1.5 at PHI)

NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 189-206 SU and 178-207-10 ATS (46.2%) in that next game over the last seven seasons.
System Match (FADE): PHOENIX (+1.5 at PHI)

Teams not making many free throws bounce back well
NBA teams coming off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing, and are on a 190-165 SU and 195-150-10 ATS (56.5%) run.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (-3.5 vs LAC)

Winning but not covering has been a problem
Teams that won their previous game but didn’t cover the spread have been bad in their zero rest follow-up game recently, going 54-66 SU and 42-76-2 ATS (35.6%) since the start of the 2022-23 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHOENIX (+1.5 at PHI), LA CLIPPERS (+3.5 at CHI), SAN ANTONIO (+4.5 at HOU)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #10:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 102-111 SU but 122-89-3 ATS (57.8%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): UTAH (+12.5 vs MIN)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:00 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

To summarize the findings from the full 2024-25 season, the sample contained 1321 games, and for the most part, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while both struggled on money lines. The full season performance by the majority handle on totals last year in the NBA was better than any other sports I have covered. In fact, these were the results: 

– Majority handle on point spreads: 660-614 ATS (51.8%), -15.4 units – ROI: -1.2%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 618-645 ATS (48.9%), -91.5 units – ROI: -7.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 842-458 (64.8%). -123.18 units – ROI: -9.5%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 886-421 (67.8%). -137.95 units – ROI: -10.6%
– Majority handle on totals: 708-594 (54.4%). +54.6 units – ROI: +4.2%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 670-621 (51.9%), -13.1 units – ROI: -1% 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a four-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 170-136 ATS (55.6%) over the last three seasons, good for +20.4 units of profit and an ROI of 6.7%. This is fairly a profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently. If you see nearly two-thirds of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 748-665 ATS (52.9%) over the last three seasons. This has produced a profit of +16.5 units and an ROI of 1.2%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA, TORONTO, LA LAKERS, MIAMI

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 352-298 ATS record (54.2%), good for +24.2 units of profit and a ROI of 3.7%. This lot of 650 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA, HOUSTON, LA LAKERS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last three seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 395-348 ATS (53.2%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.2% success rate, they were about 2% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +12.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.6%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): CHICAGO, TORONTO, MIAMI

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 494-413 ATS record, good for 54.5%. This is over a 3% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +39.7 units of profit and a ROI of 4.4%.
System Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher, however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last three seasons, they are just 137-153 ATS, good for 47.2%. This is over a 4% drop off compared to the overall majority figures and has resulted in -31.3 units of loss and a ROI of -10.8%.
System Match (FADE): HOUSTON, MINNESOTA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest and most frequent angles I have uncovered is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number has favored the Under option over the last three seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 434-351, good for 55.3%, +47.9 units, and an ROI of +6.1% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): PHX-PHI, SAS-HOU, LAC-CHI, MIN-UTA, TOR-GSW, MIA-SAC

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 346-301 (53.5%) for +14.9 units and an ROI of +2.3% since January 2023.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): UNDER – MIA-SAC

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising the total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 176-126 (58.3%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap. This has been the most profitable angle of all in terms of ROI, producing +37.4 units of profit for 12.4%.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): MIA-SAC

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LA CLIPPERS +3.5 (+1.6)
2. PHOENIX +1.5 (+1.0)
3. DENVER +2.5 (+0.9)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. GOLDEN STATE -3.5 (+1.5)
2. MINNESOTA -12.5 (+1.2)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SACRAMENTO +3.5 (+2.5)
2. DENVER +2.5 (+0.9)
3. LA CLIPPERS +3.5 (+0.4)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MINNESOTA -12.5 (+0.4)
2. PHILADELPHIA -1.5 (+0.3)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PHX-PHI OVER 222.5 (+2.1)
2. LAL-DEN OVER 228.5 (+1.8)
3. MIA-SAC OVER 238.5 (+1.0)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SAS-HOU UNDER 221.5 (-5.2)
2. TOR-GSW UNDER 225.5 (-2.0)

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: LA CLIPPERS +3.5 (+1.20

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MINNESOTA -12.5 (+1.9)
2. MIAMI -3.5 (+1.2)
3. LA LAKERS -2.5 (+1.1)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PHX-PHI OVER 222.5 (+0.4)
2. LAC-CHI OVER 225.5 (+0.2)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SAS-HOU UNDER 221.5 (-4.5)
2. LAL-DEN UNDER 228.5 (-2.0)
3. MIA-SAC UNDER 238.5 (-1.1)

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