The following NBA betting trends a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Tuesday, March 17, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* Teams that won their previous game but didn’t cover the spread have been bad in their zero-rest follow-up game recently, going 62-72 SU and 47-85-2 ATS (35.6%) since the start of the 2022-23 season.
System Match (FADE): SAN ANTONIO (-13.5 at SAC)

* PHILADELPHIA is 27-10 Over the total playing on the road in One Day Rest games since November 2024
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): PHI-DEN (o/u at 236.5)

* OKLAHOMA CITY is on a 12-3 SU and ATS surge versus Orlando since the start of 2019
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-9.5 at ORL)

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures. 

* NBA teams playing on the road in the One Day Rest scenario are 60-52 SU and 64-46 ATS vs. teams in A2H b2b games over the last two seasons
* OKLAHOMA CITY is 95-19 SU and 68-43-3 ATS playing in all One Day Rest games since April 2024
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-9.5 at ORL)

* NBA teams playing on the road in the One Day Rest scenario are 61-51 Over the total vs. teams in A2H b2b games over the last two seasons
System Match (PLAY OVER): OKC-ORL (o/u at 222.5)

* NBA teams playing on the road in the One Day Rest scenario were 70-57 SU and 70-56 ATS vs. teams in H2H b2b games since the start of last season
* WASHINGTON is 6-42 SU and 15-33 ATS playing at home in 4th in 6 Days games since April 2022
System/Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-18.5 at WSH)

* INDIANA is 14-28 SU and 10-31-1 ATS playing in 4th in 6 Days games since November 2024
* NEW YORK is just 5-7 SU and 2-10 ATS (16.7%) vs. the current lowest scoring teams in the league, scoring <114 PPG
Trends Match: 1 FADE OF INDIANA, 1 FADE OF NEW YORK

* INDIANA is 17-5 Over the total playing on the road in 4th in 6 Days games since October 2024
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): IND-NYK (o/u at 222.5)

* MIAMI is 15-7 SU and 16-6 ATS playing on the road in the 2 Days Rest scenario since June 2023
* CHARLOTTE is 12-38 SU and 17-32-1 ATS playing in the 2 Days Rest scenario since March 2022
Trends Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+3.5 at CHA)

* MILWAUKEE is 27-10 Over the total playing at home in the One Day Rest scenario since January 2025
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CLE-MIL (o/u at 229.5)

* NBA teams playing on the road in the One Day Rest scenario are 226-288 SU but 287-219-8 ATS vs. teams in 2 Days Rest games over the last four seasons
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (+15.5 at DEN)

* PHILADELPHIA is 27-10 Over the total playing on the road in One Day Rest games since November 2024
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): PHI-DEN (o/u at 236.5)

* PHOENIX is 9-5 SU and 11-3 ATS (85%) vs. teams currently scoring >118 PPG this season
Trend Match (PLAY): PHOENIX (+3.5 at MIN)

* NBA teams playing at home in the One Day Rest scenario were 113-87 Over the total vs. teams in 4th Straight Road games since the start of last season
System Match (PLAY OVER): PHX-MIN (o/u at 222.5)

* SACRAMENTO is 1-10 SU and 2-9 ATS (18%) at home this season versus teams currently winning >60% of their games
Trend Match (FADE): SACRAMENTO (+13.5 vs SAS)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(517) OKLAHOMA CITY at (518) ORLANDO
* OKLAHOMA CITY is on a 12-3 SU and ATS surge versus Orlando since the start of 2019
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-9.5 at ORL)

(519) MIAMI at (520) CHARLOTTE
* MIAMI is 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS in the last nine divisional series with Charlotte
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+3.5 at CHA)

(521) DETROIT at (522) WASHINGTON
* Road teams are 8-1 ATS in the last nine of this series
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-18.5 at WSH)

(523) INDIANA at (524) NEW YORK
* INDIANA is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings with New York
Trend Match (PLAY): INDIANA (+15.5 at NYK)

(527) PHOENIX at (528) MINNESOTA
* Underdogs are 5-3 SU and 6-2 ATS in the last eight of the PHX-MIN series
Trend Match (PLAY): PHOENIX (+3.5 at MIN)

(529) PHILADELPHIA at (530) DENVER
* Over the total is 5-1-1 in the last seven of this non-conference series
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): PHI-DEN (o/u at 236.5)

(531) SAN ANTONIO at (532) SACRAMENTO
* Over the total has converted in the last seven matchups at Golden 1 Center
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SAS-SAC (o/u at 235.5)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Home teams with a winning record that are underdogs of five points or more have gone 15-47 SU and 26-34-2 ATS (43.3%) in their last 62 non-conference games.
System Match (FADE): ORLANDO (+9.5 vs OKC)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 138-113 (55%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 259-215 (54.6%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, OVer the total was 346-278 (55.4%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – DET-WSH (spread +18.5, total 233.5), IND-NYK (spread -14.5, total 222.5), PHI-DEN (spread -15.5, total 235.5), SAS-SAC (spread +13.5, total 236.5)
UNDER – CLE-MIL (spread +10.5, total 229.5)

The following handicapping information details betting systems for divisional games. 

Eastern Southeast Division Betting System #3:
In Eastern Southeast divisional games, home teams on two days’ rest or more are 21-10 to the Over (67.7%) since the start of the 2022-23 season.
System Match (PLAY OVER): MIA-CHA (o/u at 233.5)

NBA Extreme Stats Next-Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted. 

Road favorites bounce back after losing as a home favorite
NBA teams that come off a game in which they lost as home favorites flush that result quickly when next a road favorite, going 180-85 SU and 147-114-4 ATS (56.3%) (sub-system: 86-30 SU and 68-44-4 ATS (60.7%) when favored by four points or more versus intraconference foes) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-10.5 at MIL)

Close wins haven’t provided momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 311-171 SU but just 201-268-13 ATS (42.9%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): NEW YORK (-15.5 vs IND)

Divisional upsets can create urgency
NBA teams that lose as favorites to divisional opponents have bounced back well when facing another divisional foe, going 113-70 SU and 106-74-3 ATS (58.9%) in that follow-up try over the last five seasons.
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+3.5 at CHA)

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3-point field goal attempts in a game have responded the next time out by going just 349-357 SU and 323-375-8 ATS (46.3%) in the next game over the last five seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): INDIANA (+15.5 at NYK), MILWAUKEE (+10.5 vs CLE)

NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 204-215 SU and 194-215-10 ATS (47.4%) in that next contest over the last seven seasons.
System Match (FADE): INDIANA (+15.5 at NYK)

Massive rebounding differentials
NBA teams that had a -15 or worse rebounding differential have struggled to tighten up in a back-to-back situation, going Over the total at a 110-75 (59.5%) rate since 2021, including 55-32 (62.8%) to the OVer in the last 87.
System Match (PLAY OVER): OKC-ORL (o/u at 222.5)

High-turnover games can be significant
NBA teams that committed 20+ turnovers in the previous game have done well in expected-tight matchups (within -4 to +4 line range) in the follow-up game, going 96-67 SU and 98-64-1 ATS (60.5%) in their L163 tries.
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-3.5 vs PHX)

Winning but not covering has been a problem
Teams that won their previous game but didn’t cover the spread have been bad in their zero-rest follow-up game recently, going 62-72 SU and 47-85-2 ATS (35.6%) since the start of the 2022-23 season.
System Match (FADE): SAN ANTONIO (-13.5 at SAC)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NBA Streak Betting System #2:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5 points or more, going 94-24 SU and 65-50-3 ATS (56.5%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-9.5 at ORL)

NBA Streak Betting System #4:
Teams having won their last six games and are favored by >= nine points versus a team averaging 114 PPG or more have gone just 32-9 SU but 15-26 ATS (36.6%) since the start of the 2020-21 season. Over the total is also 28-13 (68.3%) in these games.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-9.5 at ORL)
System Match (PLAY OVER): OKC-ORL (o/u at 222.5)

NBA Streak Betting System #14:
Teams reaching winning OR losing streaks of seven games or more become play-against teams in general, going 316-364-4 ATS (46.5%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been bad in road games, going 42-168 SU and 92-112-6 ATS (45.1%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY (-9.5 at ORL), WASHINGTON (+18.5 vs DET), INDIANA (+15.5 at NYK)

NBA Streak Betting System #15:
Teams reaching an eight-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 76-99-1 ATS (43.4%) in the next game, including 35-50 ATS (41.2%) on the road over the last five seasons.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-9.5 at ORL)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:15 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2025-26 season, the sample contained 633 games, and for the most part, majority bettors have lost on all six point spread, money line, and total categories. In fact, this has been the worst half-season they have endured since I started studying this subject a few years ago. Here are the results: 

– Majority handle on point spreads: 291-335 ATS (46.5%), -77.5 units – ROI: -12.4%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 287-323 ATS (47%), -68.3 units – ROI: -11.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 379-247 (60.5%). -123.2 units – ROI: -20.2%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 404-227 (64%). -113.7 units – ROI: -18%
– Majority handle on totals: 306-310 (49.7%). -35 units – ROI: -5.7%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 307-318 (49.1%), -42.8 units – ROI: -6.8%

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a four-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 211-174 ATS (54.8%) over the last 3+ seasons, good for +19.6 units of profit and an ROI of 5.1%. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently. If you see nearly two-thirds of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): CHARLOTTE

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 868-785 ATS (52.5%) over the last 3+ seasons. This has produced a profit of +4.5 units and an ROI of 0.3%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. However, it is down over 20 units so far in 2025-26, so perhaps tread lightly. Still, remember that handle is the total amount of money on a game and is generally considered sharper. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY, INDIANA, CLEVELAND, SAN ANTONIO

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: It’s another somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 456-412 ATS record (52.5%), good for +2.8 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%. This is another system that has dropped a bit this season but has still outperformed the normal levels by a decent amount. We’ll see if it can stay positive in the second half of the season.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): CHARLOTTE, INDIANA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last 3+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been mildly successful, as they are 461-417 ATS (52.5%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed just over a 50% success rate, they were about 2.5% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +2.3 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 3+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 579-508 ATS record, good for 54.2%. This is over a 4% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +20.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.9%.
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher, however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last three seasons, they are just 166-189 ATS, good for 46.8%. This is a 3%+ drop compared to the overall majority figures and has resulted in -41.9 units of loss and ROI of -11.8%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHARLOTTE, CLEVELAND

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on MONEY LINE wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1454-663 over the last 3+ seasons but for -277.83 units and an ROI of -13.1%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 1113-757 but for -72.73 units and an ROI of -3.9%. This 9.2% disparity warrants outright fading ML majorities on home teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW YORK ML, DENVER ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number has favored the Under option over the last 3+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 484-393, good for 55.2%, +51.7 units, and an ROI of +5.9% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): DET-WSH, IND-NYK, PHX-MIN

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 409-367 (52.7%) for +5.3 units and an ROI of +0.7% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – DET-WSH, PHI-DEN, SAS-SAC

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising the total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 200-153 (56.7%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap. This has been the most profitable angle of all in terms of ROI, producing +31.7 units of profit for 9%.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): PHX-MIN

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MIAMI +5.5 (+1.6)
2. ORLANDO +9.5 (+1.1)
3. PHOENIX +3.5 (+1.0)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NEW YORK -14.5 (+3.7)
2. DETROIT -18.5 (+3.5)
3. DENVER -15.5 (+1.3)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. INDIANA +14.5 (+2.4)
2. PHOENIX +3.5 (+1.8)
3. MIAMI +5.5 (+1.6)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: DETROIT -18.5 (+3.4)

Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PHI-DEN OVER 235.5 (+3.1)
2 (tie). IND-NYK OVER 222.5 (+1.4)
SAS-SAC OVER 235.5 (+1.4)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CLE-MIL UNDER 229.5 (-2.6)
2. OKC-ORL UNDER 222.5 (-0.8)
3. PHX-MIN UNDER 222.5 (-0.6)

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MIAMI +5.5 (+1.7)
2. PHOENIX +3.5 (+0.3)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DETROIT -18.5 (+5.2)
2. NEW YORK -14.5 (+3.2)
3. SAN ANTONIO -13.5 (+2.1)

Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PHI-DEN OVER 235.5 (+2.2)
2. DET-WSH OVER 232.5 (+1.9)
3. MIA-CHA OVER 232.5 (+1.0)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CLE-MIL UNDER 229.5 (-2.5)
2. PHX-MIN UNDER 222.5 (-0.7)

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