The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Tuesday, March 31, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* NBA teams coming off back-to-back wins in which they scored 130+ points in each outing have gone 105-67 SU and 93-77-2 ATS (54.7%) in the follow-up game since 2018, including 35-20 ATS (63.6%) as underdogs.
System Match (PLAY): PHOENIX (+1.5 at ORL)

* DETROIT is 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS in their last nine games hosting Toronto
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-2.5 vs TOR)

* NBA road favorites winning 36% of their games or less are on an impressive surge of 100-41 SU and 87-53-1 ATS (62.1%).
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS (-1.5 at MIL)

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures. 

* NBA teams playing on the road in the OneDayRest scenario are 62-57 SU and 66-51 ATS vs. teams in A2H b2b games over the last two seasons
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+2.5 at DET)

* DETROIT is 16-7 Under the total (69.6%) as a favorite of -1.5 to -5 points this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TOR-DET (o/u at 220.5)

* CHARLOTTE is 157-113 Under the total playing in the OneDayRest scenario since March 2021
* BROOKLYN is 23-13 Over the total playing at home in the OneDayRest scenario since February 2025
Trends Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in CHA-BKN (o/u at 219.5)

* MILWAUKEE is 28-10 Over the total playing at home in the OneDayRest scenario since January 2025
* MILWAUKEE is 23-11 Under the total (67.6%) vs. teams that currently have losing records
Trends Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in DAL-MIL (o/u at 228.5)

* ORLANDO is 122-97 Under the total playing in ALL OneDayRest games since March 2022
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PHX-ORL (o/u at 224.5)

* CLEVELAND is just 18-20 SU and 11-27 ATS (28.9%) vs. teams that have winning records right now this season
Trend Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (+2.5 at LAL)

* HOUSTON is 23-12 Under the total (66.7%) at home this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NYK-HOU (o/u at 217.5)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games: 

(501) PHOENIX at (502) ORLANDO
* ORLANDO is 4-4 SU but 8-0 ATS in the last eight matchups with Phoenix
Trend Match (PLAY): ORLANDO (-1.5 vs PHX)

(503) CHARLOTTE at (504) BROOKLYN
* Under the total is 4-1 in Hornets-Nets set since the start of 2025
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CHA-BKN (o/u at 219.5)

(505) NEW YORK at (506) HOUSTON
* Under the total is 4-1 in the last five of the Knicks-Rockets non-conference series
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NYK-HOU (o/u at 217.5)

(507) TORONTO at (508) DETROIT
* DETROIT is 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS in their last nine games hosting Toronto
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-2.5 vs TOR)

(509) DALLAS at (510) MILWAUKEE
* Over the total is 6-2 in DAL-MIL non-conference set since the start of 2022
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): DAL-MIL (o/u at 228.5)

(511) CLEVELAND at (512) LA LAKERS
* Favorites have won and covered the last six games between the Cavs and the Lakers in Los Angeles
Trend Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS (-2.5 vs CLE)

(513) PORTLAND at (514) LA CLIPPERS
* Road teams are 8-5 SU and 10-3 ATS in the last 13 of POR-LAC series
Trend Match (PLAY): PORTLAND (+5.5 at LAC)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 141-112 SU and 143-107-3 ATS (57.2%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS (-1.5 at MIL)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #3:
NBA road favorites winning 36% of their games or less are on an impressive surge of 100-41 SU and 87-53-1 ATS (62.1%).
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS (-1.5 at MIL)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 140-116 (54.7%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 273-229 (54.4%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 352-282 (55.5%).
System Match (PLAY): OVER – CHA-BKN (spread +17.5, total 219.5)

NBA Extreme Stats Next-Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted. 

Fade teams coming off overtime games
Teams that played in an overtime game the prior day are on a 70-102 SU and 74-93-5 ATS (44.3%) slide, including 25-40 ATS when a pick-’em or favorite.
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (-2.5 vs TOR)

Allowing 135+ points in a game is a sign of trouble
NBA teams off a game in which they allowed 135+ points and are now favored have gone 195-115 SU but 141-165-4 ATS (46.1%) in the follow-up game over the last seven seasons. Included among this is a 113-147 ATS (43.5%) mark when not playing the next day.
System Match (FADE): ORLANDO (-1.5 vs PHX)

Back-to-back scoring outbursts could be the beginning of a trend
NBA teams coming off back-to-back wins in which they scored 130+ points in each outing have gone 105-67 SU and 93-77-2 ATS (54.7%) in the follow-up contest since 2018, including 35-20 ATS (63.6%) as underdogs.
System Match (PLAY): PHOENIX (+1.5 at ORL)

Favorites flush low-scoring totals quickly
NBA teams that come off a game in which they scored 90 points or fewer have responded well when favored in the next outing, going 164-62 SU and 134-90-2 ATS (59.8%) in their last 226 tries.
System Match (PLAY): ORLANDO (-1.5 vs PHX)

Road favorites bounce back after losing as home favorite
NBA teams that come off a game in which they lost as home favorites flush that result quickly when next a road favorite, going 181-85 SU and 147-115-4 ATS (56.1%) (sub-system: 87-30 SU and 68-45-4 ATS (60.2%) when favored by four points or more versus intraconference foes) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): CHARLOTTE (-17.5 at BKN)

Rout wins are a warning sign for next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20-points or more are 348-265 SU but 282-316-15 ATS (47.2%) over the last seven seasons.
System Match (FADE ATS): HOUSTON (+1.5 vs NYK)

Teams not making many free throws bounce back well
NBA teams that are coming off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing, and are on a 200-177 SU and 206-161-10 ATS (56.1%) run.
System Match (PLAY): PHOENIX (+1.5 at ORL)

High-turnover games can be significant
NBA teams that committed 20+ turnovers in the previous game have done well in expected-tight matchups (within -4 to +4 line range) in the follow-up game, going 98-68 SU and 100-65-1 ATS (60.6%) in their last 166 tries.
System Match (PLAY): ORLANDO (-1.5 vs PHX), MILWAUKEE (+1.5 vs DAL)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:15 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2025-26 season, the sample contained 633 games, and for the most part, majority bettors have lost on all six point spread, money line, and total categories. In fact, this has been the worst half-season they have endured since I started studying this subject a few years ago. Here are the results: 

– Majority handle on point spreads: 291-335 ATS (46.5%), -77.5 units – ROI: -12.4%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 287-323 ATS (47%), -68.3 units – ROI: -11.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 379-247 (60.5%). -123.2 units – ROI: -20.2%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 404-227 (64%). -113.7 units – ROI: -18%
– Majority handle on totals: 306-310 (49.7%). -35 units – ROI: -5.7%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 307-318 (49.1%), -42.8 units – ROI: -6.8%

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a four-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 211-174 ATS (54.8%) over the last 3+ seasons, good for +19.6 units of profit and a ROI of 5.1%. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently. If you see nearly two-thirds of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 868-785 ATS (52.5%) over the last 3+ seasons. This has produced a profit of +4.5 units and an ROI of 0.3%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. However, it is down over 20 units so far in 2025-26 so perhaps tread lightly. Even still, remember that handle is the total amount of money on a game and is generally considered sharper. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): PHOENIX, CHARLOTTE, DALLAS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 456-412 ATS record (52.5%), good for +2.8 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%. This is another system that has dropped a bit this season but has still outperformed the normal levels by a decent amount. We’ll see if it can stay positive in the second half of the season.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): DALLAS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last 3+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been mildly successful, as they are 461-417 ATS (52.5%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed just over a 50% success rate, they were about 2.5% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +2.3 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): DALLAS, LA LAKERS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 3+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 579-508 ATS record, good for 54.2%. This is over a 4% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +20.2 units of profit and a ROI of 1.9%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHARLOTTE, DETROIT, LA CLIPPERS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1,454-663 over the last 3+ seasons but for -277.83 units and an ROI of -13.1%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 1113-757 but for -72.73 units and an ROI of -3.9%. This 9.2% disparity warrants outright fading ML majorities on home teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT ML, LA LAKERS ML, LA CLIPPERS ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number has favored the Under option over the last 3+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 484-393, good for 55.2%, +51.7 units, and an ROI of +5.9% since January 2023.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): NYK-HOU

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 409-367 (52.7%) for +5.3 units and a ROI of +0.7% since January 2023.
System Match (PLAY): OVER – DAL-MIL

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a bit more than 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 408-345 (54.2%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – CHA-BKN
UNDER – NYK-HOU

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses). 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BROOKLYN +17.5 (+2.6)
2. HOUSTON +1.5 (+2.0)
3. PHOENIX +2.5 (+1.3)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LA CLIPPERS -5.5 (+3.1)
2. DALLAS -1.5 (+1.3)
3. LA LAKERS -2.5 (+0.6)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BROOKLYN +17.5 (+3.3)
2. PHOENIX +2.5 (+1.4)
3. HOUSTON +1.5 (+1.2)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DALLAS -1.5 (+4.4)
2. LA CLIPPERS -5.5 (+1.3)
3. DETROIT -2.5 (+0.4)

Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. TOR-DET OVER 220.5 (+2.6)
2. CHA-BKN OVER 219.5 (+1.8)
3. PHX-ORL OVER 224.5 (+1.2)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: CLE-LAL UNDER 236.5 (-1.7)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. HOUSTON +1.5 (+3.3)
2. BROOKLYN +17.5 (+3.2)
3. CLEVELAND +2.5 (+1.5)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LA CLIPPERS -5.5 (+1.5)
2. DETROIT -2.5 (+0.2)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PHX-ORL OVER 224.5 (+3.6)
2. NYK-HOU OVER 217.5 (+1.2)

Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHA-BKN UNDER 219.5 (-6.0)
2. TOR-DET UNDER 220.5 (-4.0)
3. CLE-LAL UNDER 236.5 (-2.7)

RELATED ARTICLESMORE FROM AUTHOR