Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games on Tuesday, November 10. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s NBA games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Teams having lost their last four games or more have been fantastic in the rare role of playing as road favorites, going 54-19 SU and 48-23-2 ATS (67.6%) in their last 73 tries.
System Match (PLAY): ORLANDO (-6.5 at SAC)
* NBA teams off a win where they allowed <= 105 points and are now large favorites (-11 or more) in the next game have had their totals go Over at a 201-141-1 (58.8%) rate since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY OVER): MIL-NYK (o/u at 221.5)
* Over the total is 8-1 in the last nine of the Thunder-Trail Blazers divisional rivalry at the Moda Center
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): OKC-POR (o/u at 224.5)
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
* BOSTON is 14-4 SU and 15-3 ATS playing its 3rd Straight Road game since January 2025
Trend Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-1.5 at PHI)
* PORTLAND is 14-2 Over the total playing at home with 2 Days Rest since February 2023
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): OKC-POR (o/u at 224.5)
* MIAMI is 19-8 SU and 17-10 ATS (63%) vs. the current lowest-scoring teams in the league (scoring <114 PPG), since the start of last season
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-8.5 at UTA)
* MIAMI is 78-41 Over the total playing with One Day Rest since March 2024
* UTAH is 114-83 Over the total playing with One Day Rest since November 2022
Trends Match (PLAY OVER): MIA-UTA (o/u at 227.5)
* NEW YORK is just 11-10 SU and 5-16 ATS (23.8%) vs. the current lowest-scoring teams in the league (scoring <114 PPG), since the start of last season
Trend Match (FADE): NEW YORK (-15.5 vs MIL)
* PHOENIX is 19-2 SU and 16-5 ATS (76.2%) vs teams currently winning less than 40% of their games, since the start of last season
Trend Match (PLAY): PHOENIX (-3.5 vs LAC)
* NBA teams playing in the One Day Rest scenario are 65-34 Under the total vs. teams playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game since 2021
System Match (PLAY UNDER): LAC-PHX (o/u at 225.5)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(517) MILWAUKEE at (518) NEW YORK
* NEW YORK is 7-1 SU and ATS in the last eight meetings with Milwaukee
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-15.5 vs MIL)
* Over the total is 6-2 in these games as well
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIL-NYK (o/u at 221.5)
(519) BOSTON at (520) PHILADELPHIA
* PHILADELPHIA is 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS in the last six versus Boston
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (+1.5 vs BOS)
(521) MIAMI at (522) UTAH
* UTAH is 3-4 SU but 6-1 ATS in the last seven matchups with non-conference foe Miami
Trend Match (PLAY): UTAH (+8.5 vs MIA)
(525) ORLANDO at (526) SACRAMENTO
* Road teams are on 3-3 SU and 5-1 ATS surge in Magic-Kings set
Trend Match (PLAY): ORLANDO (-6.5 at SAC)
(527) OKLAHOMA CITY at (528) PORTLAND
* Over the total is 8-1 in the last nine of the Thunder-Trail Blazers divisional rivalry at the Moda Center
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): OKC-POR (o/u at 224.5)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last six NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 145-120 SU and 148-114-3 ATS (56.5%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): LA CLIPPERS (+3.5 at PHX)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #3:
NBA road favorites winning 36% of their games or less are on an impressive surge of 106-45 SU and 90-60-1 ATS (60%).
System Match (PLAY): ORLANDO (-6.5 at SAC)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 150-128 (54%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 279-236 (54.2%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, OVER the total was 373-309 (54.7%).
System Match (PLAY): OVER – MIL-NYK (spread NYK -15.5, o/u at 221.5)
NBA Divisional Systems/Trends
The following handicapping information details betting systems for divisional games.
Eastern Atlantic Division Betting System #2:
In Eastern Atlantic divisional games, home underdogs of five points or less have gone 17-43 SU and 20-38-2 ATS (34.5%) since late April 2021.
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (+1.5 vs BOS)
Western Northwest Division Betting System #1:
In Western Northwest divisional games, home underdogs are on a 20-25 SU and 32-13 ATS (71.1%) run since early November 2024.
System Match (PLAY): PORTLAND (+1.5 vs OKC)
Western Northwest Division Betting System #3:
In Western Northwest divisional games, favorites on two days’ rest or more are 15-11 SU but 8-18 ATS (30.8%) since the start of the 2024 playoffs.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-1.5 at POR)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last six seasons unless noted.
Large favorites off a solid defensive win
NBA teams off a win where they allowed <= 105 points and are now large favorites (-11 or more) in the next game have had their totals go Over at a 201-141-1 (58.8%) rate since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY OVER): MIL-NYK (o/u at 221.5)
Rout games can be significant
NBA teams coming off any game in which they won by 30 points or more have performed well in expected tight matchups (-4.5 to +4.5 line range) next time out, going 113-78 SU and 115-73-3 ATS (61.2%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-1.5 at POR)
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 441-374 (54.1%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): LAC-PHX (o/u at 224.5)
Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field-goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next game as well, going 197-133 SU and 184-139-7 ATS (57%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-1.5 at POR)
Massive rebounding differentials
NBA teams that had a -15 or worse rebounding differential have struggled to tighten up in a back-to-back situation, going Over the total at a 116-82 (58.6%) rate since 2021, including 61-39 (61%) to the Over in the last 100.
System Match (PLAY OVER): LAC-PHX (o/u at 224.5)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been fantastic in the rare role of playing as road favorites, going 54-19 SU and 48-23-2 ATS (67.6%) in their last 73 tries.
System Match (PLAY): ORLANDO (-6.5 at SAC)
NBA Streak Betting System #9:
Teams that have lost at least their last four games and are facing an opponent on 2+ Days Rest have had their games go Over the total at a 147-112-2 (56.8%) rate since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY OVER): MIL-NYK (o/u at 221.5)
NBA Streak Betting System #15:
Teams reaching winning OR losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 351-394-4 ATS (47.1%) in the next outing since 2020.
System Match (FADE): UTAH (+8.5 vs MIA)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 993-910 ATS (52.2%) over the last four seasons. This has produced -8 units and an ROI of -0.4%. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA CLIPPERS, ORLANDO, OKLAHOMA CITY
DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last four seasons, that group produced a 168-147 ATS record (53.3%). This has netted +6.3 units and an ROI of 2%. As a general rule, most bettors tend to bet favorites.
System Match (PLAY): UTAH
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 581-532 ATS record (52.2%), going for -4.2 units of profit and an ROI of -0.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON, LA CLIPPERS, UTAH
DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning number of bets. When 70% or more of the number of bets has been on a home side of an ATS wager since January 2023, this “super” majority group has gone just 118-158 ATS (42.8%), well below the overall performance of all majorities. This has resulted in a net loss of -55.8 units for an ROI of -20.2%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW YORK, PHILADLEPHIA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last three seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 559-492 ATS (53.2%). This simple angle has produced +17.8 units of profit and an ROI of +1.7%.
System Match (PLAY): ORLANDO
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 3+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 694-618 ATS record, good for 52.9%. This is about a 3% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +14.2 units of profit and an ROI of +1.1%.
System Match (PLAY): NEW YORK
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1773-793 over the last three seasons but for -306.06 units and an ROI of -11.9%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 1362-896 but for just -44.92 units and an ROI of -2%. This 9.9%+ disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams consistently.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW YORK ML, PHILADELPHIA ML, PHOENIX ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last four seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 568-472, good for 54.6%, +48.9 units, and an ROI of +4.7% since January 2023.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): LAC-PHX
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a bit over 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, the majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 494-429 (53.5%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 487-445 (52.3%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – MIL-NYK, BOS-PHI
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: Essentially the opposite of #13 above is the situation when so much money is coming in on majority handle on an Over that DraftKings is forced to move a total higher. When 77% or more majority handle bettors are on Over for a game that has seen its total rise since opening, that group has gone 356-281 (55.9%) since January 2023. This recently discovered and best units off all angle has produced +46.9 units of profit for +7.4%.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): MIL-NYK, BOS-PHI
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. UTAH +9.5 (+2.0)
2. PHILADELPHIA +1.5 (+1.3)
3. SACRAMENTO +5.5 (+0.8)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NEW YORK -15.5 (+0.7)
2. OKLAHOMA CITY -2.5 (+0.2)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1 (tie). LA CLIPPERS +3.5 (+3.6)
PORTLAND +2.5 (+3.6)
3. UTAH +9.5 (+2.2)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: ORLANDO -5.5 (+0.7)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MIL-NYK OVER 219.5 (+1.7)
2. OKC-POR OVER 226.5 (+1.1)
3. MIA-UTA OVER 228.5 (+0.6)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LAC-PHX UNDER 225.5 (-1.9)
2. BOS-PHI UNDER 217.5 (-0.1)
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. UTAH +9.5 (+2.1)
2. LA CLIPPERS +3.5 (+0.7)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NEW YORK -15.5 (+1.1)
2. ORLANDO -5.5 (+0.7)
3. OKLAHOMA CITY -2.5 (+0.2)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. OKC-POR OVER 226.5 (+2.6)
2. MIA-UTA OVER 228.5 (+2.0)
3. BOS-PHI OVER 217.5 (+1.9)
