The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Tuesday, November 18, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* Teams who have lost at least their last four games and are playing their fourth straight road game have been bad, going 8-31 SU and 13-25-1 ATS (34.2%) against conference opponents since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE): MEMPHIS (+5.5 at SAS) 

* Road teams are 7-0 ATS in the last seven of the Pistons-Hawks series
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-1.5 at ATL) 

* NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 310-240 SU but 244-291-15 ATS (45.6%) over the last seven seasons.  The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 43-72-1 ATS (37.4%).
System Matches (FADE ALL ATS): BROOKLYN (+10.5 vs BOS), LA LAKERS (-12.5 vs UTA)

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures. 

* NBA teams playing at home in One Day Rest scenario were 80-51 Over the total vs. teams in 4th Straight Road games since the start of last Season
* GOLDEN STATE is 121-90 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since Dec 2021
* ORLANDO is 105-75 Under the total playing in all One Day Rest games since Mar 2022
System/Trends Match: 2 PLAYS OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in GSW-ORL (o/u at 223.5) 

* BROOKLYN is 12-3 Over the total playing at home in the One Day Rest scenario since Feb 2025
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): BOS-BKN (o/u at 223.5) 

* ATLANTA is 121-88 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since Nov 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): DET-ATL (o/u at 229.5) 

* NBA teams playing at home in One Day Rest scenario were 80-51 Over the total vs. teams in 4th Straight Road games since the start of last season
System Match (PLAY OVER): MEM-SAS (o/u at 231.5) 

* NBA teams playing on the road in One Day Rest scenario are 191-245 SU but 247-181-8 ATS vs. teams in 2 Days Rest games over the last four seasons
System Match (PLAY ATS): UTAH (+12.5 at LAL)

* UTAH is 90-58 Over the total playing in One Day Rest games since Nov 2022
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): UTA-LAL (o/u at 237.5) 

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(561) GOLDEN STATE (9-6) at (562) ORLANDO (7-7)
* GOLDEN STATE has won and covered all four meetings with Orlando since 2024
Trend Match (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE (-3.5 at ORL)

(563) BOSTON (7-7) at (564) BROOKLYN (2-11)
* BOSTON is 10-0 SU and 8-1-1 ATS in the last 10 trips to Brooklyn
Trend Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-10.5 at BKN) 

(565) MEMPHIS (4-10) at (566) SAN ANTONIO (9-4)
* Road teams are 7-4 SU and 9-2 ATS in the MEM-SAS Southwest Divisional rivalry since 2023
Trend Match (PLAY): MEMPHIS (+5.5 at SAS) 

(567) DETROIT (12-2) at (568) ATLANTA (9-5)
* Road teams are 7-0 ATS in the last seven of the Pistons-Hawks series
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-1.5 at ATL) 

(569) UTAH (5-8) at (570) LA LAKERS (10-4)
* Over the total is 10-2 in the last 12 of the UTA-LAL series
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): UTA-LAL (o/u at 237.5) 

(571) PHOENIX (8-6) at (572) PORTLAND (6-7)
* PORTLAND is 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in the last five games hosting Phoenix
Trend Match (PLAY): PORTLAND (-2.5 vs PHX) 

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 117-96 (54.9%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 229-183 (55.6%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 305-233 (56.7%).
System Match (PLAY ALL): OVER – UTA-LAL (spread -12.5, total 237.5)
UNDER – BOS-BKN (spread +10.5, total 223.5) 

The following handicapping information details betting systems for divisional games. 

Eastern Atlantic Division Betting System #1:
In Eastern Atlantic divisional games, single-digit favorites have gone 86-32 SU and 72-53-3 ATS (57.6%) since the start of the 2022-23 season.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (*if they fall into this line range at BKN, -10.5 currently*) 

Western Southwest Division Betting System #1:
In Western Southwest divisional games, favorites of 3.5 points or more are on a 38-8 SU and 31-15 ATS (67.4%) run since mid-February 2024.
System Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (-5.5 vs MEM)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted. 

Allowing 135+ points in a game is a sign of trouble
NBA teams off of a game in which they allowed 135+ points and are now favored have gone 166-97 SU but 122-137-4 ATS (47.1%) in the follow-up contest over the last seven seasons. Included among this is a 100-121 ATS (45.2%) mark when not playing the next day.
System Match (FADE): PORTLAND (-2.5 vs PHX) 

Teams losing despite scoring well are dangerous
Since the start of the 2018-19 season, NBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points offensively have bounced back extremely well in the next outing, going 131-135 SU but 137-114-5 ATS (54.6%), including 94-62-1 ATS (60.3%) when installed as underdogs.
System Match (PLAY): PORTLAND (-2.5 vs PHX) 

Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 282-150 SU but just 181-238-13 ATS (43.2%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): BOSTON (-10.5 at BKN) 

Rout wins are a warning sign for next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 310-240 SU but 244-291-15 ATS (45.6%) over the last seven seasons.  The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 43-72-1 ATS (37.4%).
System Matches (FADE ALL ATS): BROOKLYN (+10.5 vs BOS), LA LAKERS (-12.5 vs UTA) 

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 345-300 (53.5%) since 2021.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): BOS-BKN (o/u at 223.5), MEM-SAS (o/u at 232.5), UTA-LAL (o/u at 237.5) 

NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 175-190 SU and 164-191-10 ATS (46.2%) in that next contest over the last seven seasons.
System Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (-3.5 at ORL) 

High TO games can be significant
NBA teams that committed 20+ turnovers in the previous game have done well in expected-tight matchups (within -4 to +4 line range) in the follow-up game, going 70-53 SU and 72-50-1 ATS (59%) in their last 123 tries.
System Match (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE (-3.5 at ORL)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NBA Streak Betting System #3:
Teams having won their last five games or more but are playing as underdogs against elite teams with a win pct >= 65% have seen their totals go Under at a 31-17-1 (64.6%) rate since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): DET-ATL (*if Atlanta stays an underdog, o/u at 230.5)

NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams who have lost at least their last four games and are playing their fourth straight road game have been bad, going 8-31 SU and 13-25-1 ATS (34.2%) against conference opponents since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE): MEMPHIS (+5.5 at SAS)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

To summarize the findings from the full 2024-25 season, the sample contained 1321 games, and for the most part, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads & totals, while both struggled on money lines. The full season performance by the majority handle on totals last year in the NBA was better than any other sport I have covered. In fact, these were the results: 

–  Majority handle on point spreads: 660-614 ATS (51.8%), -15.4 units – ROI: -1.2%
–  Majority number of bets on point spreads: 618-645 ATS (48.9%), -91.5 units – ROI: -7.2%
–  Majority handle on money lines: 842-458 (64.8%). -123.18 units – ROI: -9.5%
–  Majority number of bets on money lines: 886-421 (67.8%). -137.95 units – ROI: -10.6%
–  Majority handle on totals: 708-594 (54.4%). +54.6 units – ROI: +4.2%
–  Majority number of bets on totals: 670-621 (51.9%), -13.1 units – ROI: -1%

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 748-665 ATS (52.9%) over the last three seasons. This has produced a profit of +16.5 units and an ROI of 1.2%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): GOLDEN STATE, BOSTON, DETROIT 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 352-298 ATS record (54.2%), good for +24.2 units of profit and an ROI of 3.7%. This lot of 650 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): PORTLAND

 DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning number of bets. When 70% or more of the number of bets have been on a home side of an ATS wager since January 2023, this “super” majority group has gone just 92-129 ATS (41.6%), well below the overall performance of all majorities. This has resulted in a net loss of -49.9 units for an ROI of -22.6%.
System Match (FADE): SAN ANTONIO 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last three seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 395-348 ATS (53.2%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.2% success rate, they were about 2% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +12.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.6%.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): GOLDEN STATE

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 494-413 ATS record, good for 54.5%. This is over a 3% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +39.7 units of profit and an ROI of 4.4%.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference & non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher, however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last three seasons, they are just 137-153 ATS, good for 47.2%. This is over a 4% drop off compared to the overall majority figures and has resulted in -31.3 units of loss and an ROI of -10.8%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON, SAN ANTONIO 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1252-561 over the last three seasons but for -220.99 units and an ROI of -12.2%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 943-612 but for just -6.38 units and an ROI of -0.4%. This 11.8% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and at least considering ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN ANTONIO ML, LA LAKERS ML 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last three seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 434-351, good for 55.3%, +47.9 units, and an ROI of +6.1% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): GSW-ORL, BOS-BKN, PHX-POR

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 176-126 (58.3%) since January ’23 by not getting baited into this totals trap. This has been the most profitable angle of all in terms of ROI, producing +37.4 units of profit for 12.4%.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): PHX-POR

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses). 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ATLANTA +1.5 (+1.7)
2. UTAH +12.5 (+1.4)
3. ORLANDO +3.5 (+1.2) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: BOSTON -10.5 (+0.1) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BROOKLYN +10.5 (+4.1)
2. PHOENIX +2.5 (+0.7)
3. MEMPHIS +5.5 (+0.6) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: LA LAKERS -12.5 (+0.2)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHX-POR OVER 236.5 (+1.1)
2. GSW-ORL OVER 223.5 (+0.8) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DET-ATL UNDER 230.5 (-2.6)
2. MEM-SAS UNDER 233.5 (-2.0)
3. UTA-LAL UNDER 237.5 (-0.5) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. UTAH +12.5 (+2.2)
2. ORLANDO +3.5 (+1.6)
3. ATLANTA +1.5 (+1.1) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: PORTLAND -2.5 (+1.0) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: PHX-POR OVER 236.5 (+1.0) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. UTA-LAL UNDER 237.5 (-4.7)
2. DET-ATL UNDER 230.5 (-4.2)
3. MEM-SAS UNDER 233.5 (-2.7)

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