The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Tuesday, October 28, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* Favorites are on a 14-2 SU and 13-2-1 ATS surge in the Kings-Thunder series
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-10.5 vs.SAC)

* NBA teams off a previous-day win but having allowed 120+ points have had their totals go Over at a 86-54-1 (61.4%) rate (sub-system: 49-23-1 to the Over (68.1%) when on the road next game) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY OVER): PHI-WSH (o/u at 238.5)

* MILWAUKEE is 14-2 Over the total playing at home in the One Day Rest scenario since January 2025
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): NYK-MIL (o/u at 228.5)

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking top scheduling situations all season long! 

* PHILADELPHIA is 3-16 SU and 4-15 ATS playing in 3rd in 4 Days games since Nov ’24
Trend Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-3.5 at WSH)

* NBA teams playing on the road in the One Day Rest scenario are 45-36 SU and 48-31 ATS vs. teams in A2H b2b games over the last two seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): SACRAMENTO (+10.5 at OKC)

* NBA teams playing on the road in the One Day Rest scenario are 48-33 Over the total vs. teams in A2H b2b games over the last two seasons
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SAC-OKC (o/u at 227.5)

* CHARLOTTE is 131-97 Under the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since March 2021
* MIAMI is 17-6 Over the total playing at home in the One Day Rest scenario since January 2025
Trends Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in CHA-MIA (o/u at 241.5)

* MILWAUKEE is 14-2 Over the total playing at home in the One Day Rest scenario since January 2025
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): NYK-MIL (o/u at 228.5)

* NBA teams playing on the road in the One Day Rest scenario were 42-30 SU and 42-29 ATS vs. teams in H2H b2b games since the start of last season
System Match (PLAY): LA CLIPPERS (-2.5 at GSW)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 161-61 SU and 132-89-1 ATS (59.7%) run.
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-6.5 vs. CHA)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #8:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 114-93 (55.1%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 226-178 (55.9%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 295-226 (56.6%).
System Match (PLAY OVER): SAC-OKC (spread at -10.5, total at 227.5)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted.

135 points in a win is a team score to watch for
Teams that won their last game while scoring 135 or more points are on a 253-138 SU but 180-203-8 ATS (47%) skid in the follow-up game when favored.
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-3.5 at WSH)

Allowing 120+ points in a win has led to more high-scoring games
NBA teams off a previous-day win but having allowed 120+ points have had their totals go Over at a 86-54-1 (61.4%) rate (sub-system: 49-23-1 to the Over (68.1%) when on the road next game) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY OVER): PHI-WSH (o/u at 238.5)

Early-season large wins lead to Unders
NBA teams that won their previous game by 25+ points have gone Under the total at a 25-9-1 (73.5%) rate in games 2-5 of the season in the last 35 tries.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CHA-MIA (o/u at 241.5)

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throws trended Under the total the next game, 330-278 (54.3%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CHA-MIA (o/u at 241.5)

High TO games can be significant
NBA teams that committed 20+ turnovers in the previous game have done well in expected-tight matchups (within -4 to +4 line range) in the follow-up game, going 63-45 SU & 65-42-1 ATS (60.7%) in their last 108 tries.
System Match (PLAY): LA CLIPPERS (-2.5 at GSW)

Winning but not covering has been a problem
Teams that won their previous game but didn’t cover the spread have been bad in their zero-rest follow-up game recently, going 49-59 SU and 40-66-2 ATS (37.7%) since the start of the 2022-23 season.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-10.5 vs. SAC)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NBA Streak Betting System #1:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a risky bet when playing as double-digit home favorites, going 130-24 SU but 67-84-3 ATS (44.4%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE ATS): OKLAHOMA CITY (-10.5 vs. SAC)

NBA Streak Betting System #5:
Teams having won their last four games and playing on a b2b as favorites of four points or more versus below-.500 teams are 47-11 SU and 38-20 ATS (65.5%) since the start of the 2020-21 season. (OKC 10/28)
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-10.5 vs. SAC)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

To summarize the findings from the full 2024-25 season, the sample contained 1321 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads & totals, while both struggled on money lines. The full season performance by the majority handle on totals last year in the NBA was better than any other sports I have covered. In fact, these were the results: 

–  Majority handle on point spreads: 660-614 ATS (51.8%), -15.4 units – ROI: -1.2%
–  Majority number of bets on point spreads: 618-645 ATS (48.9%), -91.5 units – ROI: -7.2%
–  Majority handle on money lines: 842-458 (64.8%). -123.18 units – ROI: -9.5%
–  Majority number of bets on money lines: 886-421 (67.8%). -137.95 units – ROI: -10.6%
–  Majority handle on totals: 708-594 (54.4%). +54.6 units – ROI: +4.2%
–  Majority number of bets on totals: 670-621 (51.9%), -13.1 units – ROI: -1% 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 748-665 ATS (52.9%) over the last three seasons. This has produced a profit of +16.5 units and an ROI of 1.2%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW YORK, LA CLIPPERS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 352-298 ATS record (54.2%), good for +24.2 units of profit and a ROI of 3.7%. This lot of 650 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): LA CLIPPERS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 494-413 ATS record, good for 54.5%. This is over a 3% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +39.7 units of profit and a ROI of 4.4%.
System Match (PLAY): NEW YORK

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1,252-561 over the last three seasons but for -220.99 units and a ROI of -12.2%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 943-612 but for just -6.38 units and a ROI of -0.4%. This 11.8% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and at least considering ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI ML, OKLAHOMA CITY ML, MILWAUKEE ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest and most frequent angles I have uncovered is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number has favored the Under option over the last three seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 434-351, good for 55.3%, +47.9 units, and a ROI of +6.1% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): NYK-MIL, LAC-GSW

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 346-301 (53.5%) for +14.9 units and a ROI of +2.3% since January ’23.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): OVER – PHI-WSH
UNDER – CHA-MIA

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses). 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. GOLDEN STATE +2.5 (+4.4)
2. WASHINGTON +3.5 (+3.7)
3. CHARLOTTE +6.5 (+3.1)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: OKLAHOMA CITY -10.5 (+0.5)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHARLOTTE +6.5 (+4.0)
2. SACRAMENTO +10.5 (+3.1)
3. GOLDEN STATE +2.5 (+3.0)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: PHILADELPHIA -3.5 (+0.6) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SAC-OKC OVER 227.5 (+0.5)
2. NYK-MIL OVER 228.5 (+0.3)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHA-MIA UNDER 241.5 (-4.6)
2. PHI-WSH UNDER 238.5 (-2.4)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. GOLDEN STATE +2.5 (+5.5)
2. CHARLOTTE +6.5 (+2.9)
3. WASHINGTON +3.5 (+2.7)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: OKLAHOMA CITY -10.5 (+0.6)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHA-MIA UNDER 241.5 (-7.2)
2. PHI-WSH UNDER 238.5 (-4.8)
3. SAC-OKC UNDER 227.5 (-3.9)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(541) PHILADELPHIA (3-0) at (542) WASHINGTON (1-2)
* Over the total is 7-2 in the last nine of 76ers-Wizards series at Washington
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): PHI-WSH (o/u at 238.5)

(543) CHARLOTTE (2-1) at (544) MIAMI (2-1)
* Home teams are 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 of Hornets-Heat divisional rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-6.5 vs. CHA)

(545) SACRAMENTO (1-2) at (546) OKLAHOMA CITY (4-0)
* Favorites are on 14-2 SU and 13-2-1 ATS surge in SAC-OKC series
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-10.5 vs. SAC)

(547) NEW YORK (2-1) at (548) MILWAUKEE (2-1)
* New York has won and covered all five meetings with Milwaukee since Christmas 2023
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-1.5 at MIL)

(549) LA CLIPPERS (2-1) at (550) GOLDEN STATE (3-1)
* LA CLIPPERS are on runs of 7-0 SU and 6-0 ATS in divisional series with Golden State
Trend Match (PLAY): LA CLIPPERS (-2.5 at GSW)

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