The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Wednesday, April 1, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 141-113 SU and 143-108-3 ATS (57%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA (+4.5 at CHI) 

* Over the total is 9-2-1 in the Knicks-Grizzlies non-conference set since the start of 2020
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): NYK-MEM (o/u at 228.5) 

Teams having won their last six games and are favored by >= 9-points versus a team averaging 114 PPG or more have gone 36-9 SU but 17-28 ATS (37.8%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DENVER (-16.5 at UTA), SAN ANTONIO (-13.5 at GSW)

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures. 

* NBA teams playing on the road in a One Day Rest scenario were 75-61 SU and 74-61 ATS vs. teams in back-to-back home games since the start of last season
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-4.5 at ORL) 

* ATLANTA is 140-110 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since November 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): ATL-ORL (o/u at 232.5) 

* NBA teams playing on the road in One Day Rest scenario are 229-294 SU but 290-225-8 ATS vs. teams in 2 Days Rest games over the last four seasons
System Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (-13.5 at GSW) 

* NBA teams playing on the road in 2 Days Rest scenario are 17-15 SU and 19-13 ATS vs. teams in back-to-back away/home games over the last two seasons
System Match (PLAY): SACRAMENTO (+13.5 at TOR) 

* MIAMI is 33-13 Over the total playing at home in the One Day Rest scenario since January 2025
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): BOS-MIA (o/u at 228.5) 

* WASHINGTON is 6-45 SU and 17-34 ATS playing at home in 4th in 6 Days games since April 2022
Trend Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+13.5 vs PHI)

* PHILADELPHIA is 29-12 Over the total playing on the road in One Day Rest games since November 2024
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): PHI-WSH (o/u at 238.5) 

* DENVER is 16-2 Over the total (88.9%) vs teams currently winning less than 40% of their games this season
* UTAH is 108-77 Over the total playing in One Day Rest games since November 2022
Trends Match (PLAY OVER): DEN-UTA (o/u at 249.5) 

* HOUSTON is 24-12 Under the total (66.7%) at home this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIL-HOU (o/u at 218.5) 

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for today’s games:

(515) PHILADELPHIA at (516) WASHINGTON
* Over the total is 5-1 in the last six of the 76ers-Wizards series at Capital One Arena
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): PHI-WSH (o/u at 238.5) 

(517) ATLANTA at (518) ORLANDO
* Home teams are 5-1 SU and ATS in the last six of the Hawks-Magic divisional rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY): ORLANDO (+4.5 vs ATL) 

(519) BOSTON at (520) MIAMI
* BOSTON is 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in their last seven visits to South Beach
Trend Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-4.5 at MIA)

* Under the total has converted in the last six matchups at the Kaseya Center
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BOS-MIA (o/u at 228.5)

(521) MILWAUKEE at (522) HOUSTON
* HOUSTON is 4-1 SU and 4-0-1 ATS in the last five games hosting Milwaukee
Trend Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-17.5 vs MIL) 

(523) SACRAMENTO at (524) TORONTO
* Over the total is 5-1 in the last six of the Kings-Raptors non-conference set at Scotiabank Arena
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SAC-TOR (o/u at 226.5) 

(525) INDIANA at (526) CHICAGO
* Under the total has converted in all six meetings between Indiana and Chicago since the start of 2025
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): IND-CHI (o/u at 248.5)

* INDIANA is also 6-1 SU and ATS in the last seven of the overall series
Trend Match (PLAY): INDIANA (+4.5 at CHI) 

(527) NEW YORK at (528) MEMPHIS
* Over the total is 9-2-1 in the Knicks-Grizzlies non-conference set since the start of 2020
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): NYK-MEM (o/u at 228.5) 

(531) SAN ANTONIO at (532) GOLDEN STATE
* SAN ANTONIO is 5-3 SU and 7-1 ATS in their last eight trips to Golden State
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (-13.5 at GSW) 

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 141-113 SU and 143-108-3 ATS (57%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA (+4.5 at CHI) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 140-116 (54.7%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 273-229 (54.4%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 352-283 (55.4%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – PHI-WSH (spread +13.5, total 238.5), MIL-HOU (spread -17.5, total 218.5), NYK-MEM (spread +14.5, total 228.5), SAC-TOR (spread -13.5, total 226.5), SAS-GSW (spread +13.5, total 226.5)
UNDER – DEN-UTA (spread +16.5, total 249.5)

The following handicapping information details betting systems for divisional games. 

Eastern Central Division Betting System #1:
In Eastern Central divisional games, home favorites in the -0.5 to -10 line range are on a 26-18 Over (59.1%) run since April 2024.
System Match (PLAY OVER): IND-CHI (o/u at 248.5) 

Western Northwest Division Betting System #1:
In Western Northwest divisional games, home underdogs are on an 18-23 SU and 29-12 ATS (70.7%) run since early-November 2024.
System Match (PLAY): UTAH (+16.5 vs DEN)

Western Northwest Division Betting System #3:
In Western Northwest divisional games, favorites on two days rest or more are 11-9 SU and 5-15 ATS (25%) since the start of the ’24 playoffs.
System Match (FADE): DENVER (-16.5 at UTA)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted. 

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 402-353 (53.2%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): ATL-ORL (o/u at 232.5) 

NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 353-363 SU and 325-383-8 ATS (45.9%) in the next game over the last five seasons.
System Match (FADE): UTAH (+16.5 vs DEN) 

NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 206-218 SU and 196-218-10 ATS (47.3%) in that next contest over the last seven seasons.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (+17.5 at HOU) 

Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest as well, going 183-123 SU and 173-126-7 ATS (57.9%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (+17.5 at HOU) 

High TO games can be significant
NBA teams that committed 20+ turnovers in the previous game have done well in expected-tight matchups (within -4 to +4 line range) in the follow-up game, going 100-68 SU and 102-65-1 ATS (61.1%) in their last 168 tries.
System Match (PLAY): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR ORLANDO vs ATL (+4.5 CURRENTLY)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NBA Streak Betting System #2:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5 points or more, going 103-24 SU and 70-54-3 ATS (56.5%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DENVER (-16.5 at UTA), SAN ANTONIO (-13.5 at GSW) 

NBA Streak Betting System #4:
Teams having won their last six games and are favored by >= 9 points versus a team averaging 114 PPG or more have gone 36-9 SU but 17-28 ATS (37.8%) since the start of the 2020-21 season. Over the total is also 28-17 (62.2%) in these games.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DENVER (-16.5 at UTA), SAN ANTONIO (-13.5 at GSW)
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): DEN-UTA (o/u at 249.5), SAS-GSW (o/u at 226.5) 

NBA Streak Betting System #7:
Teams who have lost at least their last four games and are facing an opponent on 2+ Days Rest have had their games go Over the total at a 143-108-2 (57%) rate since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): IND-CHI (o/u at 248.5), DEN-UTA (o/u at 249.5)

NBA Streak Betting System #10:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 121-144 SU but 149-114-3 ATS (56.7%) surge.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO (-4.5 vs IND), UTAH (+16.5 vs DEN) 

NBA Streak Betting System #12:
Teams on losing streaks of five games or more have struggled as divisional
underdogs, going 17-65 SU and 34-45-3 ATS (43%) since the start of the
2023-24 season.
System Match (FADE): UTAH (+16.5 vs DEN) 

NBA Streak Betting System #13:
When teams on alternate streaks of at least four games go head-to-head, the teams on the losing streaks have gone 39-97 SU but 74-62 ATS (54.4%) over the last five seasons.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): UTAH (+16.5 vs DEN) 

NBA Streak Betting System #15:
Teams reaching an eight-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 79-106-1 ATS (42.7%) in the next game, including 38-56 ATS (40.4%) on the road over the last five seasons.
System Match (FADE): SAN ANTONIO (-13.5 at GSW) 

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2025-26 season, the sample contained 633 games, and for the most part, majority bettors have lost on all six point spread, money line, and total categories. In fact, this has been the worst half-season they have endured since I started studying this subject a few years ago. Here are the results: 

– Majority handle on point spreads: 291-335 ATS (46.5%), -77.5 units – ROI: -12.4%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 287-323 ATS (47%), -68.3 units – ROI: -11.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 379-247 (60.5%). -123.2 units – ROI: -20.2%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 404-227 (64%). -113.7 units – ROI: -18%
– Majority handle on totals: 306-310 (49.7%). -35 units – ROI: -5.7%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 307-318 (49.1%), -42.8 units – ROI: -6.8% 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 868-785 ATS (52.5%) over the last 3+ seasons. This has produced a profit of +4.5 units and an ROI of 0.3%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. However, it is down over 20 units so far in ’25-26 so perhaps tread lightly. Even still, remember that handle is the total amount of money on a game and is generally considered sharper. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): ATLANTA, PHILADELPHIA, BOSTON, NEW YORK, DENVER, SAN ANTONIO

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning number of bets. When 70% or more of the number of bets has been on a home side of an ATS wager since January 2023, this “super” majority group has gone just 104-142 ATS (42.3%), well below the overall performance of all majorities. This has resulted in a net loss of -52.2 units for an ROI of -21.2%.
System Match (FADE): TORONTO 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last 3+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been mildly successful, as they are 461-417 ATS (52.5%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed just over a 50% success rate, they were about 2.5% improved on these rarer contests. This simple angle has produced +2.3 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): NEW YORK, TORONTO 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 3+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 579-508 ATS record, good for 54.2%. This is over a 4% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +20.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.9%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA, BOSTON, SAN ANTONIO 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1454-663 over the last 3+ seasons but for -277.83 units and an ROI of -13.1%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 1113-757 but for -72.73 units and an ROI of -3.9%. This 9.2% disparity warrants outright fading ML majorities on home teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO ML, HOUSTON ML, MEMPHIS ML, TORONTO ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last 3+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 484-393, good for 55.2%, +51.7 units, and an ROI of +5.9% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): ATL-ORL, DEN-UTA 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 409-367 (52.7%) for +5.3 units and an ROI of +0.7% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – ATL-ORL, NYK-MEM 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a bit more than 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 408-345 (54.2%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 398-359 (52.6%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Match (PLAY): OVER – MIL-HOU 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 200-153 (56.7%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap. This has been the most profitable angle of all in terms of ROI, producing +31.7 units of profit for 9%.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): DEN-UTA 

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses). 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ORLANDO +4.5 (+4.8)
2. GOLDEN STATE +13.5 (+2.3)
3. SACRAMENTO +13.5 (+0.3) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOUSTON -17.5 (+4.2)
2. DENVER -16.5 (+3.8)
3. BOSTON -4.5 (+2.8) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ORLANDO +4.5 (+4.9)
2. GOLDEN STATE +13.5 (+2.3)
3. SACRAMENTO +13.5 (+1.0) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHILADELPHIA -13.5 (+3.6)
2. DENVER -16.5 (+2.2)
3. HOUSTON -17.5 (+0.6) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. IND-CHI OVER 247.5 (+0.9)
2. SAS-GSW OVER 225.5 (+0.3) 

Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIL-HOU UNDER 228.5 (-1.4)
2(tie). PHI-WSH UNDER 238.5 (-0.9)
BOS-MIA UNDER 228.5 (-0.9)
DEN-UTA UNDER 249.5 (-0.9) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ORLANDO +4.5 (+5.8)
2. GOLDEN STATE +13.5 (+2.4)
3. INDIANA +4.5 (+0.7) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOUSTON -17.5 (+3.7)
2. DENVER -16.5 (+3.3)
3. BOSTON -4.5 (+2.3) 

Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAS-GSW OVER 225.5 (+2.0)
2. IND-CHI OVER 247.5 (+1.0)
3. NYK-MEM OVER 228.5 (+0.7) 

Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIL-HOU UNDER 218.5 (-3.0)
2. PHI-WSH UNDER 238.5 (-1.1)
3. BOS-MIA UNDER 228.5 (-0.8)

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