Today’s NBA Betting Trends
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Wednesday, December 3, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 169-64 SU and 138-94-1 ATS (59.5%) run.
System Match (PLAY): ORLANDO (-8.5 vs SAS)
* NBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points offensively have bounced back extremely well in the next outing when installed as underdogs, going 95-63-1 ATS (60.1%) since the start of the 2018-2019 season.
System Match (PLAY): PORTLAND (+10.5 at CLE)
* Over the total is 10-1 in the last 11 of the Pistons-Bucks divisional rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): DET-MIL (o/u at 230.5)
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures.
* NBA teams playing in back-to-back away/home scenarios are 29-31 SU and 23-37 ATS vs. teams in 4thin6Days games over the last two Seasons
* NBA teams playing on the road in One Day Rest scenario are 51-39 SU and 56-32 ATS vs. teams in back-to-back away/home games over the last two Seasons
Systems Match (PLAY): CHARLOTTE (+8.5 at NYK)
* NBA teams playing on road in One Day Rest scenario are 51-39 Over the total vs. teams in A2H b2b games over the last two seasons
* CHARLOTTE is 138-100 Under the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since Mar 2021
System/Trend Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in CHA-NYK (o/u at 235.5)
* ATLANTA is 126-88 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since Nov 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): LAC-ATL (o/u at 226.5)
* BROOKLYN is 9-17 SU but 17-8-1 ATS playing on the road in the One Day Rest scenario since Nov 2024
Trend Match (PLAY): BROOKLYN (+7.5 at CHI)
* DENVER is 80-51 Over the total playing in 4th in 6 Days games since Mar 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): DEN-IND (o/u at 236.5)
* INDIANA is 13-18 SU and 7-23-1 ATS playing in 4th in 6 Days games since Nov 2024
Trend Match (FADE): INDIANA (+7.5 vs DEN)
* MILWAUKEE is 20-3 Over the total playing at home in the One Day Rest scenario since Jan 2025
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): DET-MIL (o/u at 230.5)
* ORLANDO is 105-79 Under the total playing in all One Day Rest games since Mar 2022
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SAS-ORL (o/u at 234.5)
* PORTLAND is 25-27 SU but 35-15 ATS playing in 3rd in 4 Days games since Oct 2023
Trend Match (PLAY): PORTLAND (+10.5 at CLE)
* PORTLAND is 66-37 Under the total playing in 3rd in 4 Days games since Apr 2021
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): POR-CLE (o/u at 240.5)
* HOUSTON is 117-85 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since Dec 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SAC-HOU (o/u at 230.5)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(563) DENVER at (564) INDIANA
* Under the total is 4-1 in the last five of the Nuggets-Pacers non-conference series
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): DEN-IND (o/u at 236.5)
(565) SAN ANTONIO at (566) ORLANDO
* Over the total is 11-3 in the last 14 of the SAS-ORL set
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SAS-ORL (o/u at 234.5)
(567) PORTLAND at (568) CLEVELAND
* Road teams have covered the spread in all five meetings between POR and CLE since the start of 2023
Trend Match (PLAY): PORTLAND (+10.5 at CLE)
(569) LA CLIPPERS at (570) ATLANTA
* Road teams are 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS in the last eight of the LAC-ATL non-conference series
Trend Match (PLAY): LA CLIPPERS (+3.5 at ATL)
(571) CHARLOTTE at (572) NEW YORK
* NEW YORK is 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in the last eight matchups with Charlotte
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-8.5 vs CHA)
(573) BROOKLYN at (574) CHICAGO
* Home teams are 8-1 SU and ATS in the last nine of the Nets-Bulls series
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (-7.5 vs BKN)
(575) SACRAMENTO at (576) HOUSTON
* Underdogs have covered the last four in the Kings-Rockets series at Houston
Trend Match (PLAY): SACRAMENTO (+15.5 at HOU)
(577) DETROIT at (578) MILWAUKEE
* Over the total is 10-1 in the last 11 of the DET-MIL divisional rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): DET-MIL (o/u at 230.5)
(579) MIAMI at (580) DALLAS
* DALLAS is 6-2 ATS in the last eight games with Miami
Trend Match (PLAY): DALLAS (+5.5 vs MIA)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 169-64 SU and 138-94-1 ATS (59.5%) run.
System Match (PLAY): ORLANDO (-7.5 vs SAS)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:
Short home underdogs of 4.5 points or less with totals < 230 are on a 42-9 Over (82.4%) surge in the last 51 games.
System Match (PLAY OVER): NONE YET, WATCH FOR DET-MIL (spread +4.5, total 230.5)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #8:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 124-99 (55.6%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 229-185 (55.3%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 319-240 (57.1%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – POR-CLE (spread -10.5, total 240.5), SAC-HOU (spread -15.5, total 230.5)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted.
Teams losing despite scoring well are dangerous
NBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points offensively have bounced back extremely well in the next outing when installed as underdogs, going 95-63-1 ATS (60.1%) since the start of the 2018-2019 season.
System Match (PLAY): PORTLAND (+10.5 at CLE)
Road favorites bounce back after losing as home favorite
NBA teams that come off a game in which they lost as home favorites flush that result quickly when next a road favorite, going 163-72 SU and 135-96-4 ATS (58.4%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): DENVER (-7.5 at IND)
Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 286-155 SU but just 185-243-13 ATS (43.2%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (-4.5 at MIL)
Rout wins are a warning sign for next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 314-241 SU but 248-292-15 ATS (45.9%) over the last seven seasons.
System Match (FADE ATS): DALLAS (+5.5 vs MIA)
Upset wins over conference opponents lead to next game stumbles versus non-conference opponents
NBA teams coming off an upset win over an intra-conference foe have had problems when facing a non-conference opponent in the next game, going just 157-192 SU and 151-194-4 ATS (43.8%) since late-January 2021.
System Match (FADE): DALLAS (+5.5 vs MIA)
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 354-310 (53.3%) since 2021.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): DEN-IND (o/u at 236.5), LAC-ATL (o/u at 226.5), SAC-HOU (o/u at 230.5)
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 312-324 SU and 286-342-8 ATS (45.5%) in the next game over the last five seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE (+4.5 vs DET), MIAMI (-5.5 vs DAL), DALLAS (+5.5 vs MIA)
NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 178-192 SU and 167-193-10 ATS (46.4%) in that next contest over the last seven seasons.
System Match (FADE): MIAMI (-5.5 at DAL)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #10:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 93-98 SU but 110-79-3 ATS (58.2%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (-7.5 vs BKN)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
To summarize the findings from the full 2024-25 season, the sample contained 1321 games, and for the most part, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while both struggled on money lines. The full season performance by the majority handle on totals last year in the NBA was better than any other sport I have covered. In fact, these were the results:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 660-614 ATS (51.8%), -15.4 units – ROI: -1.2%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 618-645 ATS (48.9%), -91.5 units – ROI: -7.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 842-458 (64.8%). -123.18 units – ROI: -9.5%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 886-421 (67.8%). -137.95 units – ROI: -10.6%
– Majority handle on totals: 708-594 (54.4%). +54.6 units – ROI: +4.2%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 670-621 (51.9%), -13.1 units – ROI: -1%
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 748-665 ATS (52.9%) over the last three seasons. This has produced a profit of +16.5 units and an ROI of 1.2%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DENVER, SACRAMENTO
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 352-298 ATS record (54.2%), good for +24.2 units of profit and an ROI of 3.7%. This lot of 650 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PORTLAND, ORLANDO, LA CLIPPERS, SACRAMENTO
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last three seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 395-348 ATS (53.2%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.2% success rate, they were about 2% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +12.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.6%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): DENVER, ORLANDO
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 494-413 ATS record, good for 54.5%. This is over a 3% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +39.7 units of profit and an ROI of 4.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW YORK, SACRAMENTO
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number has favored the Under option over the last three seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 434-351, good for 55.3%, +47.9 units, and an ROI of +6.1% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): SAS-ORL, CHA-NYK, SAC-HOU, DET-MIL, MIA-DAL
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 176-126 (58.3%) since January ’23 by not getting baited into this totals trap. This has been the most profitable angle of all in terms of ROI, producing +37.4 units of profit for 12.4%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): SAS-ORL, MIA-DAL
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAN ANTONIO +7.5 (+1.9)
2. PORTLAND +10.5 (+1.7)
3. BROOKLYN +7.5 (+1.5)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW YORK -8.5 (+4.4)
2(tie). DENVER -7.5 (+1.5)
HOUSTON -15.5 (+1.5)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. INDIANA +7.5 (+4.0)
2. SACRAMENTO +15.5 (+3.9)
3. CHARLOTTE +8.5 (+2.5)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: CHICAGO -7.5 (+0.4)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BKN-CHI OVER 231.5 (+1.4)
2. CHA-NYK OVER 235.5 (+0.8)
3. SAS-ORL OVER 236.5 (+0.3)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIA-DAL UNDER 241.5 (-4.7)
2. DET-MIL UNDER 230.5 (-1.0)
3. SAC-HOU UNDER 231.5 (-0.6)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LA CLIPPERS +3.5 (+2.8)
2. PORTLAND +10.5 (+1.5)
3. BROOKLYN +7.5 (+0.8)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW YORK -8.5 (+3.6)
2. DENVER -7.5 (+2.8)
3. HOUSTON -15.5 (+1.5)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: DEN-IND OVER 236.5 (+1.5)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIA-DAL UNDER 241.5 (-3.9)
2(tie). SAS-ORL UNDER 236.5 (-3.7)
CHA-NYK UNDER 235.5 (-3.7)
