The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Wednesday, December 31, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

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AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* Under the total is 14-2 in the last 16 of the Warriors-Hornets non-conference series (including nine straight Unders in Charlotte)
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): GSW-CHA (o/u at 235.5) 

* NBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points offensively have bounced back extremely well in the next outing when installed as underdogs, going 100-65-1 ATS (60.6%) since the start of the 2018-2019 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA (+3.5 vs ORL), ATLANTA (+5.5 vs MIN), DENVER (+6.5 at TOR) 

* MILWAUKEE is 20-5 Over the total playing at home in the One Day Rest scenario since Jan ’25
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): WSH-MIL (o/u at 232.5)

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures. 

* NBA teams playing at home in One Day Rest scenario were 86-59 Over the total vs. teams in 4th Straight Road games since the start of last season
System Match (PLAY OVER): PHX-CLE (o/u at 234.5) 

* ATLANTA is 130-90 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since Nov ’21
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIN-ATL (o/u at 243.5) 

* CHARLOTTE is 143-101 Under the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since Mar ’21
* GOLDEN STATE is 125-94 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since Dec ’21
Trends Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in GSW-CHA (o/u at 234.5) 

* MILWAUKEE is 20-5 Over the total playing at home in the One Day Rest scenario since Jan ’25
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): WSH-MIL (o/u at 232.5) 

* INDIANA is 13-21 SU and 7-26-1 ATS playing in 4th in 6 Days games since Nov ’24
Trend Match (FADE): INDIANA (+3.5 vs ORL) 

* ORLANDO is 111-80 Under the total playing in all One Day Rest games since Mar ’22
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): ORL-IND (o/u at 226.5)

* PORTLAND is 27-29 SU but 38-16 ATS playing in 3rd in 4 Days games since Oct ’23
* OKLAHOMA CITY is 38-6 SU and 33-10-1 ATS playing at home in the One Day Rest scenario since Mar 2024
Trends Match: 1 PLAY PORTLAND, 1 PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY 

* PORTLAND is 69-38 Under the total playing in 3rd in 4 Days games since Apr ’21
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): POR-OKC (o/u at 232.5) 

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(501) GOLDEN STATE at (502) CHARLOTTE
* Under the total is 14-2 in the last 16 of the GSW-CHA non-conference series (including nine straight Unders in Charlotte)
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): GSW-CHA (o/u at 235.5)

(503) ORLANDO at (504) INDIANA
* Over the total is 12-2 in the last 14 meetings between ORL and IND at Gainbridge Fieldhouse
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): ORL-IND (o/u at 227.5)

(505) MINNESOTA at (506) ATLANTA
* ATLANTA is 7-4 SU and 10-1 ATS in the last 11 games versus Minnesota
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (+5.5 vs MIN) 

(507) PHOENIX at (508) CLEVELAND
* Home teams are 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS in the PHX-CLE non-conference set since start of 2024
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-6.5 vs PHX)

(509) NEW ORLEANS at (510) CHICAGO
* NEW ORLEANS is 7-2 SU and ATS versus Chicago since the start of 2022
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (+1.5 at CHI) 

(511) NEW YORK at (512) SAN ANTONIO
* Over the total is on an extended 11-2-1 run when NYK visits San Antonio
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): NYK-SAS (o/u at 235.5) 

(513) DENVER at (514) TORONTO
* Over the total is 10-2 in the last 12 of the Nuggets-Raptors non-conference series
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): DEN-TOR (o/u at 228.5) 

(515) PORTLAND at (516) OKLAHOMA CITY
* Under the total is 9-1 in the last 10 of the divisional rivalry between POR and OKC at the Paycom Center
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): POR-OKC (o/u at 232.5)

(517) WASHINGTON at (518) MILWAUKEE
* Home teams are 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS in the last four of the WSH-MIL series
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-10.5 vs WSH)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #8:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 127-100 (55.9%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 235-191 (55.2%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 327-249 (56.8%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – WSH-MIL (spread -10.5, total 232.5)
UNDER – POR-OKC (spread -15.5, total 232.5) 

The following handicapping information details betting systems for divisional games. 

Western Northwest Division Betting System #2:
In Western Northwest divisional games, teams playing a third straight home game have their totals go Over at a 28-12 (70%) rate in the L40 instances.
System Match (PLAY OVER): POR-OKC (o/u at 232.5) 

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted. 

Allowing 135+ points in a game is a sign of trouble
NBA teams off of a game in which they allowed 135+ points and are now favored have gone 179-104 SU but 130-149-4 ATS (46.6%) in the follow-up contest over the last seven seasons. Included among this is a 105-132 ATS (44.3%) mark when not playing the next day.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO (-1.5 vs NOP) 

Teams losing despite scoring well are dangerous
NBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points offensively have bounced back extremely well in the next outing when installed as underdogs, going 100-65-1 ATS (60.6%) since the start of the 2018-2019 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA (+3.5 vs ORL), ATLANTA (+5.5 vs MIN), DENVER (+6.5 at TOR) 

Upset wins over conference opponents lead to next game stumbles versus non-conference opponents
NBA teams coming off an upset win over an intra-conference foe have had problems when facing a non-conference opponent in the next game, going just 168-202 SU and 163-203-4 ATS (44.5%) since late-January 2021.
System Match (FADE): TORONTO (-6.5 vs DEN) 

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 371-322 (53.5%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): NYK-SAS (o/u at 236.5)

NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 323-336 SU and 296-355-8 ATS (45.5%) in the next game over the last five seasons.
System Match (FADE): INDIANA (+3.5 vs ORL)

NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 187-199 SU and 174-202-10 ATS (46.3%) in that next contest over the last seven seasons.
System Match (FADE): NEW YORK (+2.5 at SAS)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #10:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 97-105 SU but 116-84-3 ATS (58%) surge.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (+5.5 vs MIN), NEW ORLEANS (+1.5 at CHI) 

NBA Streak Betting System #14:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of 7 games or more become play against teams in general, going 284-328-4 ATS (46.4%) in the next outing since 2020.
System Matches (FADE ALL): INDIANA (+3.5 vs ORL), ATLANTA (+5.5 vs MIN) 

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

To summarize the findings from the full 2024-25 season, the sample contained 1321 games, and for the most part, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while both struggled on money lines. The full season performance by the majority handle on totals last year in the NBA was better than any other sport I have covered. In fact, these were the results: 

–  Majority handle on point spreads: 660-614 ATS (51.8%), -15.4 units – ROI: -1.2%
–  Majority number of bets on point spreads: 618-645 ATS (48.9%), -91.5 units – ROI: -7.2%
–  Majority handle on money lines: 842-458 (64.8%). -123.18 units – ROI: -9.5%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 886-421 (67.8%). -137.95 units – ROI: -10.6%
–  Majority handle on totals: 708-594 (54.4%). +54.6 units – ROI: +4.2%
–  Majority number of bets on totals: 670-621 (51.9%), -13.1 units – ROI: -1%         

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the ROAD side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 748-665 ATS (52.9%) over the last three seasons. This has produced a profit of +16.5 units and an ROI of 1.2%. This has been a VERY consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ORLANDO, MINNESOTA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last three seasons, that group produced a 94-70 ATS record (57.3%).  This has netted +17 units and an ROI of 10.4%. As a general rule, most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 164 games was only about 4.0% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): CHARLOTTE 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 352-298 ATS record (54.2%), good for +24.2 units of profit and an ROI of 3.7%. This lot of 650 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHARLOTTE, CLEVELAND, NEW ORLEANS, TORONTO, WASHINGTON

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last three seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 395-348 ATS (53.2%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.2% success rate, they were about 2% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +12.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.6%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA, CLEVELAND, TORONTO 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 494-413 ATS record, good for 54.5%. This is over a 3% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +39.7 units of profit and an ROI of 4.4%.
System Match (PLAY): ORLANDO 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1252-561 over the last three seasons but for -220.99 units and an ROI of -12.2%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 943-612 but for just -6.38 units and an ROI of -0.4%. This 11.8% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and at least considering ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND ML, SAN ANTONIO ML, TORONTO ML, OKLAHOMA CITY ML 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last three seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 434-351, good for 55.3%, +47.9 units, and an ROI of +6.1% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): NOP-CHI, POR-OKC 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 346-301 (53.5%) for +14.9 units and an ROI of +2.3% since January ’23.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): OVER – MIN-ATL 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 176-126 (58.3%) since January ’23 by not getting baited into this totals trap. This has been the most profitable angle of all in terms of ROI, producing +37.4 units of profit for 12.4%.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): NOP-CHI

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses). 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW YORK +1.5 (+1.7)
2. INDIANA +4.5 (+1.4)
3. NEW ORLEANS +1.5 (+1.1) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OKLAHOMA CITY -15.5 (+2.3)
2. MILWAUKEE -10.5 (+1.0)
3. GOLDEN STATE -7.5 (+0.5) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PORTLAND +15.5 (+3.3)
2. NEW ORLEANS +1.5 (+0.8)
3. WASHINGTON +10.5 (+0.4) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAN ANTONIO -1.5 (+1.0)
2. ORLANDO -4.5 (+0.8)
3. CLEVELAND -6.5 (+0.7) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DEN-TOR OVER 228.5 (+3.8)
2. NYK-SAS OVER 235.5 (+1.2) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. WSH-MIL UNDER 233.5 (-2.0)
2. ORL-IND UNDER 227.5 (-1.8)
3. NOP-CHI UNDER 248.5 (-1.2) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW YORK +1.5 (+3.3)
2. DENVER +6.5 (+2.8)
3. INDIANA +4.5 (+1.5) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OKLAHOMA CITY -15.5 (+3.9)
2. GOLDEN STATE -7.5 (+2.0)
3. MILWAUKEE -10.5 (+1.3)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DEN-TOR OVER 228.5 (+3.5)
2. PHX-CLE OVER 234.5 (+0.9)
3. NYK-SAS OVER 235.5 (+0.7)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. WSH-MIL UNDER 233.5 (-3.5)
2. MIN-ATL UNDER 244.5 (-3.2)
3. NOP-CHI UNDER 248.5 (-2.6)

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