Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Wednesday, February 11, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Teams that won their previous game but didn’t cover the spread have been bad in their zero rest follow-up game recently, going 57-69 SU and 45-79-2 ATS (36.3%) since the start of the 2022-23 season.
System Match (FADE): HOUSTON (-9.5 vs LAC)
* MIAMI is 7-3 SU and 9-1 ATS in the last 10 trips to New Orleans
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+1.5 at NOP)
* Teams who have lost at least their last four games and are facing an opponent on 2+ Days Rest have had their games go Over the total at a 137-98-2 (58.3%) rate since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY OVER): CHI-BOS (o/u at 225.5)
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
* NBA teams playing on the road in One Day Rest scenario are 217-273 SU but 275-207-8 ATS vs. teams in 2 Days Rest games over the last four seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT (+1.5 at TOR), CHICAGO (+13.5 at BOS)
* NBA teams playing at home in One Day Rest scenario were 104-78 Over the total vs. teams in 4th Straight Road games since the start of last season
System Match (PLAY OVER): MEM-DEN (o/u at 238.5)
* ATLANTA is 136-101 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since November 2021
* CHARLOTTE is 150-108 Under the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since March 2021
Trends Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in ATL-CHA (o/u at 233.5)
* INDIANA is 13-25 SU and 8-29-1 ATS playing in 4th in 6 Days games since November 2024
Trend Match (FADE): INDIANA (+4.5 at BKN)
* INDIANA is 15-5 Over the total playing on the road in 4th in 6 Days games since October 2024
* BROOKLYN is 19-8 Over the total playing at home in the One Day Rest scenario since Febuary 2025
* NBA teams playing at home in One Day Rest scenario were 104-78 Over the total vs. teams in 4th Straight Road games since the start of last season
System/Trends Match (PLAY OVER): IND-BKN (o/u at 216.5)
* OKLAHOMA CITY is 88-19 SU and 65-39-3 ATS playing in all One Day Rest games since April 2024
* NBA teams playing on the road in One Day Rest scenario were 63-50 SU and 61-51 ATS vs. teams in back-to-back home games since the start of last season
System/Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-7.5 at PHX)
* ORLANDO is 119-87 Under the total playing in all One Day Rest games since March 2022
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIL-ORL (o/u at 220.5)
* UTAH is 100-71 Over the total playing in One Day Rest games since November 2022
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SAC-UTA (o/u at 230.5)
* GOLDEN STATE is 36-33 SU and 25-41 ATS playing home games in the One Day Rest scenario since November 2023
Trend Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (+8.5 vs SAS)
* GOLDEN STATE is 135-100 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since December 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SAS-GSW (o/u at 220.5)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(529) ATLANTA at (530) CHARLOTTE
* CHARLOTTE is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings with divisional foe Atlanta
Trend Match (PLAY): CHARLOTTE (-4.5 vs ATL)
(531) WASHINGTON at (532) CLEVELAND
* Under the total is 4-1 in the last five of the Wizards-Cavaliers series at Rocket Arena
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): WSH-CLE (o/u at 240.5)
(533) MILWAUKEE at (534) ORLANDO
* ORLANDO is 7-2 ATS in the last nine games with Milwaukee, including a win and cover two nights ago
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-7 vs IND)
(535) NEW YORK at (536) PHILADELPHIA
* NEW YORK is 7-1 SU and ATS in the last eight trips to Philadelphia
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (+2.5 at PHI)
(537) DETROIT at (538) TORONTO
* DETROIT is 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in the last six matchups with Toronto
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (+1.5 at TOR)
(539) INDIANA at (540) BROOKLYN
* UNDER the total is 6-0 in the last six of the Pacers-Nets set
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): IND-BKN (o/u at 216.5)
(541) CHICAGO at (542) BOSTON
* Under the total has converted in all five meetings between Chicago and Boston since December 2024
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CHI-BOS (o/u at 225.5)
(543) PORTLAND at (544) MINNESOTA
* Home teams are 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in the POR-MIN divisional rivalry since the start of last season
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-5.5 vs POR)
(545) MIAMI at (546) NEW ORLEANS
* MIAMI is 7-3 SU and 9-1 ATS in the last 10 trips to New Orleans
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+1.5 at NOP)
(547) LA CLIPPERS at (548) HOUSTON
* LA CLIPPERS is 2-2 SU but 4-0 ATS in all four meetings with Houston since the start of 2025
Trend Match (PLAY): LA CLIPPERS (+9.5 at HOU)
(549) SACRAMENTO at (550) UTAH
* Favorites are 9-0 SU and 7-2 ATS in the last nine of the Kings-Jazz set
Trend Match (PLAY): UTAH (-5.5 vs SAC)
(553) MEMPHIS at (554) DENVER
* DENVER has won and covered the last six games hosting Memphis
Trend Match (PLAY): DENVER (-13.5 vs MEM)
(555) SAN ANTONIO at (556) GOLDEN STATE
* Road teams are on a 13-4 ATS surge in the SAS-GSW series
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (-8.5 at GSW)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 134-105 SU and 136-100-3 ATS (57.6%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA (+4.5 at BKN)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 135-106 (56%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 247-208 (54.3%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 334-263 (55.9%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – WSH-CLE (spread -17.5, total 239.5), MIL-ORL (spread -10.5, total 219.5), CHI-BOS (spread -13.5, total 225.5), MEM-DEN (spread -13.5, total 238.5)
NBA Divisional Systems/Trends
The following handicapping information details betting systems for divisional games.
Eastern Atlantic Division Betting System #1:
In Eastern Atlantic divisional games, single-digit favorites have gone 95-41 SU and 79-64-3 ATS (55.2%) since the start of the 2022-23 season.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-2.5 vs NYK)
Western Northwest Division Betting System #2:
In Western Northwest divisional games, teams playing a third straight home game have their totals go Over at a 29-13 (69%) rate in the last 42 instances.
System Match (PLAY OVER): POR-MIN (o/u at 234.5)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted.
Fade teams off of overtime games
Teams that played in an overtime game the prior day are on a 65-101 SU and 69-92-5 ATS (42.9%) slide, including 40-61-3 ATS in the last 104 games.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW YORK (+2.5 at PHI), INDIANA (+4.5 at BKN)
Allowing 135+ points in a game is a sign of trouble
NBA teams off a game in which they allowed 135+ points and are now favored have gone 186-109 SU but 135-156-4 ATS (46.4%) in the follow-up contest over the last seven seasons. Included among this is a 108-138 ATS (43.9%) mark when not playing the next day.
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-2.5 vs NYK)
Allowing 120+ points in a win has led to more high-scoring games
NBA teams off a previous day win but having allowed 120+ points have had their totals go over at a 94-63-1 (59.9%) rate (sub-system: 54-28-1 to the Over (65.9%) when on the road next game) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY OVER): IND-BKN (o/u at 216.5)
Back-to-back scoring outbursts could be the beginning of a trend
NBA teams coming off back-to-back wins in which they scored 130+ points in each outing have gone 96-65 SU and 86-73-2 ATS (54.1%) in the follow-up contest since 2018.
System Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (-8.5 at GSW)
Teams losing despite scoring well are dangerous
NBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points offensively have bounced back extremely well in the next outing when installed as underdogs, going 112-70-1 ATS (61.5%) since the start of the 2018-2019 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (+5.5 at CHA), CHICAGO (+13.5 at BOS)
Favorites flush low-scoring totals quickly
NBA teams that come off a game in which they scored 90 points or fewer have responded well when favored in the next outing, going 158-59 SU and 128-87-2 ATS (59.5%) in their last 217 tries.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-13.5 vs CHI)
Road favorites bounce back after losing as home favorite
NBA teams that come off a game in which they lost as home favorites flush that result quickly when next a road favorite, going 174-80 SU and 144-106-4 ATS (57.6%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR MIAMI at NOP, +1.5 CURRENTLY
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 386-333 (53.7%) since 2021.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): NYK-PHI (o/u at 222.5), MIA-NOP (o/u at 231.5), MEM-DEN (o/u at 238.5)
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 338-349 SU and 311-368-8 ATS (45.8%) in the next game over the last five seasons.
System Match (FADE): HOUSTON (-9.5 vs LAC)
NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 195-211 SU and 184-212-10 ATS (46.5%) in that next contest over the last seven seasons.
System Match (FADE): PORTLAND (+5.5 at MIN)
Teams not making many free throws bounce back well
NBA teams that are coming off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing, and are on a 193-168 SU and 198-153-10 ATS (56.4%) run.
System Match (PLAY): PHOENIX (+7.5 vs OKC)
Winning but not covering has been a problem
Teams that won their previous game but didn’t cover the spread have been bad in their zero rest follow-up game recently, going 57-69 SU and 45-79-2 ATS (36.3%) since the start of the 2022-23 season.
System Match (FADE): HOUSTON (-9.5 vs LAC)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #1:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a risky bet when playing as double-digit home favorites, going 145-27 SU but 74-95-3 ATS (43.8%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE ATS): CLEVELAND (-17.5 vs WSH)
NBA Streak Betting System #2:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5-points or more, going 91-24 SU and 62-50-3 ATS (55.4%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (-8.5 at GSW)
NBA Streak Betting System #7:
Teams who have lost at least their last four games and are facing an opponent on 2+ Days Rest have had their games go Over the total at a 137-98-2 (58.3%) rate since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY OVER): CHI-BOS (o/u at 225.5)
NBA Streak Betting System #10:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 110-122 SU but 131-99-3 ATS (57%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (+13.5 at BOS)
NBA Streak Betting System #14:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of 7 games or more become play against teams in general, going 298-340-4 ATS (46.7%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of 7 games or more have been terrible in road games, going 37-153 SU and 83-101-6 ATS (45.1%).
System Match (FADE): SACRAMENTO (+5.5 at UTA)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2025-26 season, the sample contained 633 games, and for the most part, majority bettors have lost on all six point spread, money line, and total categories. In fact, this has been the worst half-season they have endured since I started studying this subject a few years ago. Here are the results:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 291-335 ATS (46.5%), -77.5 units – ROI: -12.4%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 287-323 ATS (47%), -68.3 units – ROI: -11.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 379-247 (60.5%). -123.2 units – ROI: -20.2%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 404-227 (64%). -113.7 units – ROI: -18%
– Majority handle on totals: 306-310 (49.7%). -35 units – ROI: -5.7%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 307-318 (49.1%), -42.8 units – ROI: -6.8%
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 211-174 ATS (54.8%) over the last 3+ seasons, good for +19.6 units of profit and an ROI of 5.1%. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently. If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA, PHOENIX
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 868-785 ATS (52.5%) over the last 3+ seasons. This has produced a profit of +4.5 units and an ROI of 0.3%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. However, it is down over 20 units so far in 2025-26, so perhaps tread lightly. Even still, remember that handle is the total amount of money on a game and is generally considered sharper. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): ATLANTA, CHICAGO, SAN ANTONIO
DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 135-106 ATS record (56%). This has netted +18.4 units and an ROI of 7.6%. As a general rule, most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 241 games was only about 5.0% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO, PHOENIX
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 456-412 ATS record (52.5%), good for +2.8 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%. This is another system that has dropped a bit this season but has still outperformed the normal levels by a decent amount. We’ll see if it can stay positive in the second half of the season.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON, CHICAGO, PHILADELPHIA, TORONTO, PHOENIX
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 3+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 579-508 ATS record, good for 54.2%. This is over a 4% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +20.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.9%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ORLANDO, BROOKLYN, CHICAGO, HOUSTON, PHOENIX, DENVER, SAN ANTONIO
DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher, however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last three seasons, they are just 166-189 ATS, good for 46.8%. This is a 3%+ drop compared to the overall majority figures and has resulted in -41.9 units of loss and an ROI of -11.8%.
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last 3+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 484-393, good for 55.2%, +51.7 units, and an ROI of +5.9% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): NYK-PHI, POR-MIN, LAC-HOU, SAC-UTA, OKC-PHX
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 409-367 (52.7%) for +5.3 units and an ROI of +0.7% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – MIL-ORL, CHI-BOS, MIA-NOP, MEM-DEN
UNDER – POR-MIN
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a bit more than 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 408-345 (54.2%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – MIL-ORL, IND-BKN
UNDER – LAC-HOU, OKC-PHX
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. INDIANA +4.5 (+6.5)
2. PHOENIX +7.5 (+4.2)
3. MEMPHIS +13.5 (+2.7)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. UTAH -5.5 (+3.7)
2. CLEVELAND -16.5 (+2.1)
3. ORLANDO -10.5 (+1.5)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. INDIANA +4.5 (+3.9)
2(tie). PHOENIX +7.5 (+2.2)
MEMPHIS +13.5 (+2.2)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. UTAH -5.5 (+2.4)
2. CLEVELAND -16.5 (+2.4)
3. MINNESOTA -5.5 (+1.0)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LAC-HOU OVER 208.5 (+3.9)
2. ATL-CHA OVER 233.5 (+1.4)
3. MIL-ORL OVER 220.5 (+1.0)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. POR-MIN UNDER 234.5 (-2.7)
2. MIA-NOP UNDER 232.5 (-2.4)
3. OKC-PHX UNDER 217.5 (-1.3)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. INDIANA +4.5 (+7.6)
2. PHOENIX +7.5 (+4.9)
3. CHICAGO +13.5 (+3.0)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ORLANDO -10.5 (+2.1)
2. CHARLOTTE -4.5 (+2.0)
3. UTAH -5.5 (+1.8)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. IND-BKN OVER 216.5 (+3.6)
2. LAC-HOU OVER 208.5 (+2.5)
3. SAC-UTA OVER 230.5 (+2.4)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. WSH-CLE UNDER 240.5 (-3.3)
2. POR-MIN UNDER 234.5 (-2.7)
3. MEM-DEN UNDER 238.5 (-1.7)
