Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Wednesday, January 14, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* LA CLIPPERS are on an extended 14-3 SU and 15-2 ATS run versus non-conference foe Washington, including nine straight SU and ATS wins when playing host
Trend Match (PLAY): LA CLIPPERS (-12.5 vs WSH)
* Teams having lost their last four games or more have been fantastic in the rare role of playing as road favorites, going 48-15 SU and 43-18-2 ATS (70.5%) in their last 63 tries.
System Match (PLAY): BROOKLYN (-1.5 at NOP)
* NBA teams playing on the road in 2 Days Rest scenario are 22-4 Under the total vs. teams in 3rd Home in 4 Days games over the last two seasons
System Match (PLAY UNDER): NYK-SAC (o/u at 229.5)
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures.
* NBA teams playing on the road in One Day Rest scenario are 54-45 SU and 58-39 ATS vs. teams in back-to-back away/home games over the last two seasons
System Match (PLAY): UTAH (+3.5 at CHI)
* NBA teams playing on the road in One Day Rest scenario are 53-46 Over the total vs. teams in back-to-back away/home games over the last two seasons
* UTAH is 95-65 Over the total playing in One Day Rest games since November 2022
System/Trend Match (PLAY OVER): UTA-CHI (o/u at 241.5)
* NBA teams playing on the road in One Day Rest scenario were 58-44 SU and 56-45 ATS vs. teams in back-to-back home games since the start of last season
* BROOKLYN is 11-18 SU but 20-8-1 ATS playing on the road in the One Day Rest scenario since November 2024
System/Trend Match (PLAY): BROOKLYN (-1.5 at NOP)
* DENVER is 85-53 Over the total playing in 4th in 6 Days games since March 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): DEN-DAL (o/u at 225.5)
* PHILADELPHIA is 8-18 SU and 10-16 ATS playing in 3rd in 4 Days games since November 2024
Trend Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-1.5 vs CLE)
* SACRAMENTO is 6-13 SU and 4-15 ATS playing in 3rd Straight Home games since November 2024
Trend Match (FADE): SACRAMENTO (+10.5 vs NYK)
* NBA teams playing on the road in 2 Days Rest scenario are 22-4 Under the total vs. teams in 3rd Home in 4 Days games over the last two seasons
System Match (PLAY UNDER): NYK-SAC (o/u at 229.5)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(559) TORONTO at (560) INDIANA
* Over the total is 4-1 in the last five of the Raptors-Pacers series at Gainbridge Fieldhouse
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): TOR-IND (o/u at 223.5)
(561) CLEVELAND at (562) PHILADELPHIA
* PHILADELPHIA is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings with Cleveland
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-1.5 vs CLE)
* Over the total is 9-1 in the last 10 of the series as well
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CLE-PHI (o/u at 237.5)
(563) UTAH at (564) CHICAGO
* Over the total is 5-1 in the last six of the Jazz-Bulls non-conference set
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): UTA-CHI (o/u at 241.5)
(565) BROOKLYN at (566) NEW ORLEANS
* Favorites are 6-0 SU and ATS in the BKN-NOP series since the start of 2023
Trend Match (PLAY): BROOKLYN (-1.5 at NOP)
(567) DENVER at (568) DALLAS
* DALLAS is 4-3 SU and 4-2-1 ATS in the last seven games with Denver
Trend Match (PLAY): DALLAS (-1.5 vs DEN)
(569) NEW YORK at (570) SACRAMENTO
* NEW YORK is 8-1 SU and ATS in the last nine matchups with Sacramento
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-10.5 at SAC)
(571) WASHINGTON at (572) LA CLIPPERS
* LA CLIPPERS are on an extended 14-3 SU and 15-2 ATS run versus non-conference foe Washington, including nine straight SU and ATS wins when playing host
Trend Match (PLAY): LA CLIPPERS (-12.5 vs WSH)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 131-97 SU and 133-92-3 ATS (59.1%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): BROOKLYN (-1.5 at NOP)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #3:
NBA road favorites winning 36% of their games or less are on an impressive surge of 92-37 SU and 79-49-1 ATS (61.7%).
System Match (PLAY): BROOKLYN (-1.5 at NOP)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 128-103 (55.4%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 239-199 (54.6%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 328-257 (56.1%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – NYK-SAC (spread +10.5, total 229.5), WSH-LAC (spread -12.5, total 225.5)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted.
Teams losing despite scoring well are dangerous
NBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points offensively have bounced back extremely well in the next outing when installed as underdogs, going 106-67-1 ATS (61.3%) since the start of the 2018-2019 season.
System Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (+1.5 vs BKN)
Road favorites bounce back after losing as home favorite
NBA teams that come off a game in which they lost as home favorites flush that result quickly when next a road favorite, going 169-79 SU and 139-105-4 ATS (57%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR CLEVELAND at PHI, +1.5 CURRENTLY
Rout wins are a warning sign for the next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20-points or more are 325-251 SU but 262-299-15 ATS (46.7%) over the last seven seasons.
System Match (FADE ATS): SACRAMENTO (+10.5 vs NYK)
Upset wins over conference opponents lead to next game stumbles versus non-conference opponents
NBA teams coming off an upset win over an intra-conference foe have had problems when facing a non-conference opponent in the next game, going just 169-208 SU and 164-209-4 ATS (44%) since late-January 2021.
System Match (FADE): SACRAMENTO (+10.5 vs NYK)
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 327-341 SU and 301-359-8 ATS (45.6%) in the next game over the last five seasons.
System Match (FADE): SACRAMENTO (+10.5 vs NYK)
Teams not making many free throws bounce back well
NBA teams that come off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing, and are on a 190-163 SU and 195-148-10 ATS (56.9%) run.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA (+2.5 vs TOR), NEW YORK (-10.5 at SAC)
Massive rebounding differentials
NBA teams that had a -15 or worse rebounding differential have struggled to tighten up in a back-to-back situation, going Over the total at a 102-68 (60%) rate since 2021, including 47-25 (65.3%) to the Over in the last 72.
System Match (PLAY OVER): DEN-DAL (o/u at 225.5)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #6:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been fantastic in the rare role of playing as road favorites, going 48-15 SU and 43-18-2 ATS (70.5%) in their last 63 tries.
System Match (PLAY): BROOKLYN (-1.5 at NOP)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
To summarize the findings from the full 2024-25 season, the sample contained 1,321 games, and for the most part, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while both struggled on money lines. The full season performance by the majority handle on totals last year in the NBA was better than any other sport I have covered. In fact, these were the results:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 660-614 ATS (51.8%), -15.4 units – ROI: -1.2%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 618-645 ATS (48.9%), -91.5 units – ROI: -7.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 842-458 (64.8%). -123.18 units – ROI: -9.5%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 886-421 (67.8%). -137.95 units – ROI: -10.6%
– Majority handle on totals: 708-594 (54.4%). +54.6 units – ROI: +4.2%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 670-621 (51.9%), -13.1 units – ROI: -1%
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 748-665 ATS (52.9%) over the last three seasons. This has produced a profit of +16.5 units and an ROI of 1.2%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO, CLEVELAND, DENVER, NEW YORK
DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last three seasons, that group produced a 94-70 ATS record (57.3%). This has netted +17 units and an ROI of 10.4%. As a general rule, most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 164 games was only about 4.0% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 352-298 ATS record (54.2%), good for +24.2 units of profit and an ROI of 3.7%. This lot of 650 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): UTAH, NEW ORLEANS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last three seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 395-348 ATS (53.2%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.2% success rate, they were about 2% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +12.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.6%.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): LA CLIPPERS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 494-413 ATS record, good for 54.5%. This is over a 3% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +39.7 units of profit and an ROI of 4.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO, CLEVELAND, DENVER
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1252-561 over the last three seasons but for -220.99 units and an ROI of -12.2%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 943-612 but for just -6.38 units and an ROI of -0.4%.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last three seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 434-351, good for 55.3%, +47.9 units, and an ROI of +6.1% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): CLE-PHI, UTA-CHI, NYK-SAC
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. UTAH +3.5 (+2.3)
2. DENVER +1.5 (+1.1)
3. INDIANA +2.5 (+0.8)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW YORK -10.5 (+1.2)
2. LA CLIPPERS -12.5 (+0.3)
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. WASHINGTON +12.5 (+0.9)
2. DENVER +1.5 (+0.2)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW YORK -10.5 (+3.9)
2. PHILADELPHIA -1.5 (+1.2)
3. CHICAGO -3.5 (+0.8)
Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DEN-DAL OVER 225.5 (+2.8)
2. CLE-PHI OVER 236.5 (+1.4)
3. UTA-CHI OVER 241.5 (+1.1)
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BROOKLYN +1.5 (+2.9)
2. CLEVELAND +1.5 (+2.3)
3. UTAH +3.5 (+0.6)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW YORK -10.5 (+5.3)
2. DALLAS -1.5 (+1.7)
3. LA CLIPPERS -12.5 (+0.9)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NYK-SAC OVER 229.5 (+5.6)
2. DEN-DAL OVER 225.5 (+3.0)
3. BKN-NOP OVER 228.5 (+2.3)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: TOR-IND UNDER 223.5 (-2.5)
