The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Wednesday, January 21, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* Teams having lost their last four games or more have been solid in the rare role of playing as double-digit favorites, going 15-1 SU and 12-3-1 ATS (80%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-11.5 vs BKN) 

* Favorites are 14-0 SU and 12-1-1 ATS in the last 14 of the Thunder-Bucks series in Milwaukee
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-9.5 at MIL) 

* NBA teams off a previous day win but having allowed 120+ points have had their totals go Over at a 93-62-1 (60%) rate (sub-system: 53-27-1 to the Over (66.3%) when on the road next game) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY OVER): TOR-SAC (o/u at 224.5) 

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures. 

* NBA teams playing on the road in One Day Rest scenario are 206-264 SU but 264-198-8 ATS vs. teams in 2 Days Rest games over the last four seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (+1.5 at MEM), DETROIT (-10.5 at NOP) 

* ATLANTA is 132-98 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since November 2021
* NBA teams playing in OneDayRest scenario are 155-87 Under the total vs. teams in 4th in 10+ Days games over the last two seasons
System/Trend Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in ATL-MEM (o/u at 239.5) 

* BROOKLYN is 11-20 SU but 20-10-1 ATS playing on the road in the One Day Rest scenario since November 2024
Trend Match (PLAY): BROOKLYN (+11.5 at NYK) 

* CHARLOTTE is 10-36 SU and 15-30-1 ATS playing in 2 Days Rest scenario since March 2022
* NBA teams playing on the road in One Day Rest scenario are 206-264 SU but 264-198-8 ATS vs. teams in 2 Days Rest games over the last four seasons
System/Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-3.5 at CHA) 

* INDIANA is 13-24 SU and 8-28-1 ATS playing in 4th in 6 Days games since November 2024
Trend Match (FADE): INDIANA (+10.5 at BOS)

* INDIANA is 15-4 Over the total playing on the road in 4th in 6 Days games since October 2024
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): IND-BOS (o/u at 225.5) 

* OKLAHOMA CITY is 84-16 SU and 62-35-3 ATS playing in all One Day Rest games since April 2024
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-9.5 at MIL) 

* MILWAUKEE is 22-6 Over the total playing at home in the One Day Rest scenario since January 2025
* NBA teams playing at home in One Day Rest scenario were 96-65 Over the total vs. teams in 4th Straight Road games since the start of last Season
System/Trend Match (PLAY OVER): OKC-MIL (o/u at 226.5) 

* SACRAMENTO is 8-15 SU and 6-17 ATS playing in 3rd Straight Home games since November 2024
* NBA teams playing in back-to-back away scenario are 26-46 SU and 26-45-1 ATS vs. teams in 4th Straight Home games over the last three seasons
System/Trend Match: 1 FADE of TORONTO, 1 FADE of SACRAMENTO

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games: 

(515) CLEVELAND at (516) CHARLOTTE
* Although only 1-3 SU, CHARLOTTE won all four meetings with Cleveland ATS in 2025
Trend Match (PLAY): CHARLOTTE (+3.5 vs CLE) 

(517) INDIANA at (518) BOSTON
* INDIANA is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 games against Boston
Trend Match (PLAY): INDIANA (+10.5 at BOS)

(519) BROOKLYN at (520) NEW YORK
* NEW YORK is on a 12-0 SU and 8-3-1 ATS surge versus divisional foe Brooklyn
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-11.5 vs BKN) 

(521) DETROIT at (522) NEW ORLEANS
* Road teams are 12-4 ATS in the last 16 of the DET-NOP non-conference series
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-10.5 at NOP) 

(523) ATLANTA at (524) MEMPHIS
* Road teams are 8-2 ATS in the Hawks-Grizzlies set since the start of the 2020-21 season
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (+1.5 at MEM) 

(525) OKLAHOMA CITY at (526) MILWAUKEE
* Favorites are 14-0 SU and 12-1-1 ATS in the last 14 of the Thunder-Bucks series in Milwaukee
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-9.5 at MIL) 

(527) TORONTO at (528) SACRAMENTO
* SACRAMENTO is 3-1 SU and ATS in the last four matchups with Toronto
Trend Match (PLAY): SACRAMENTO (+5.5 vs TOR) 

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 130-104 (55.6%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 241-202 (54.4%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 328-258 (56%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – IND-BOS (spread -10.5, total 225.5), DET-NOP (spread +10.5, total 233.5)
UNDER – BKN-NYK (spread -11.5, total 220.5)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted. 

Allowing 135+ points in a game is a sign of trouble
NBA teams off a game in which they allowed 135+ points and are now favored have gone 183-105 SU but 133-151-4 ATS (46.8%) in the follow-up contest over the last seven seasons. Included among this is a 106-133 ATS (44.4%) mark when not playing the next day.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-3.5 at CHA) 

Allowing 120+ points in a win has led to more high-scoring games
NBA teams off a previous day win but having allowed 120+ points have had their totals go Over at a 93-62-1 (60%) rate (sub-system: 53-27-1 to the Over (66.3%) when on the road next game) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY OVER): TOR-SAC (o/u at 224.5)

Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 298-166 SU but just 193-258-13 ATS (42.8%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (-10.5 at NOP)

Rout wins are a warning sign for the next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20-points or more are 328-252 SU but 264-301-15 ATS (46.7%) over the last seven seasons.
System Match (FADE ATS): CHARLOTTE (+3.5 vs CLE) 

Upset wins over conference opponents lead to next game stumbles versus non-conference opponents
NBA teams coming off an upset win over an intra-conference foe have had problems when facing a non-conference opponent in the next game, going just 171-210 SU and 165-212-4 ATS (43.8%) (sub-system: 18-45 SU and 19-42-2 ATS (31.1%) vs. opponents giving up <= 108 PPG) since late-January 2021.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (+9.5 vs OKC) 

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 377-330 (53.3%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-CHA (o/u at 235.5) 

NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 329-344 SU and 303-362-8 ATS (45.6%) in the next game over the last five seasons.
System Match (FADE): TORONTO (-5.5 at SAC) 

NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 190-206 SU and 179-207-10 ATS (46.4%) in that next contest over the last seven seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY (-9.5 at MIL), TORONTO (-5.5 at SAC) 

High turnover games can be significant
NBA teams that committed 20+ turnovers in the previous game have done well in expected-tight matchups (within -4 to +4 line range) in the follow-up game, going 86-58 SU and 89-54-1 ATS (62.2%) in their last 144 tries.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-3.5 at CHA)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NBA Streak Betting System #6:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been fantastic in the rare role of playing as road favorites, going 48-15 SU and 43-18-2 ATS (70.5%) in their last 63 tries.
System Match (PLAY): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR ATLANTA at MEM, +1.5 CURRENTLY 

NBA Streak Betting System #7:
Teams who have lost at least their last four games and are facing an opponent on 2+ Days Rest have had their games go Over the total at a 132-94-2 (58.4%) rate since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY OVER): ATL-MEM (o/u at 239.5) 

NBA Streak Betting System #9:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been solid in the rare role of playing as double-digit favorites, going 15-1 SU and 12-3-1 ATS (80%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-11.5 vs BKN) 

NBA Streak Betting System #10:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 103-111 SU but 123-89-3 ATS (58%) surge.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (+1.5 at MEM), NEW YORK (-11.5 vs BKN) 

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2025-26 season, the sample contained 633 games, and for the most part, majority bettors have lost on all six point spread, money line, and total categories. In fact, this has been the worst half-season they have endured since I started studying this subject a few years ago. Here are the results: 

– Majority handle on point spreads: 291-335 ATS (46.5%), -77.5 units – ROI: -12.4%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 287-323 ATS (47%), -68.3 units – ROI: -11.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 379-247 (60.5%). -123.2 units – ROI: -20.2%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 404-227 (64%). -113.7 units – ROI: -18%
– Majority handle on totals: 306-310 (49.7%). -35 units – ROI: -5.7%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 307-318 (49.1%), -42.8 units – ROI: -6.8% 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 868-785 ATS (52.5%) over the last 3+ seasons. This has produced a profit of +4.5 units and an ROI of 0.3%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. However, it is down over 20 units so far in ’25-26 so perhaps tread lightly. Even still, remember that handle is the total amount of money on a game and is generally considered sharper. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, DETROIT, OKLAHOMA CITY 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last 3+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been mildly successful, as they are 461-417 ATS (52.5%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed just over a 50% success rate, they were about 2.5% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +2.3 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): DETROIT, OKLAHOMA CITY 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 3+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 579-508 ATS record, good for 54.2%. This is over a 4% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +20.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.9%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, BOSTON 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1454-663 over the last 3+ seasons but for -277.83 units and an ROI of -13.1%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 1113-757 but for -72.73 units and an ROI of -3.9%. This 9.2% disparity warrants outright fading ML majorities on home teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON ML, NEW YORK ML, MEMPHIS ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last 3+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 484-393, good for 55.2%, +51.7 units, and an ROI. of +5.9% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): CLE-CHA, IND-BOS, ATL-MEM 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 200-153 (56.7%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap. This has been the most profitable angle of all in terms of ROI, producing +31.7 units of profit for 9%.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): ATL-MEM 

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses). 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHARLOTTE +3.5 (+4.6)
2. SACRAMENTO +5.5 (+2.3)
3. MILWAUKEE +9.5 (+0.9) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BOSTON -10.5 (+3.8)
2. MEMPHIS -1.5 (+2.1)
3. NEW YORK -11.5 (+0.7) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHARLOTTE +3.5 (+4.6)
2. SACRAMENTO +5.5 (+2.1)
3. INDIANA +10.5 (+1.8) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OKLAHOMA CITY -9.5 (+1.7)
2. MEMPHIS -1.5 (+1.6)
3. NEW YORK -11.5 (+0.8) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CLE-CHA OVER 236.5 (+0.4)
2. ATL-MEM OVER 239.5 (+0.1) 

Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. TOR-SAC UNDER 225.5 (-2.2)
2. OKC-MIL UNDER 226.5 (-1.2)
3. BKN-NYK UNDER 221.5 (-0.4) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHARLOTTE +3.5 (+2.4)
2. SACRAMENTO +5.5 (+1.8)
3. MILWAUKEE +9.5 (+0.8) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW YORK -11.5 (+3.1)
2. BOSTON -10.5 (+2.2)
3. MEMPHIS -1.5 (+0.4) 

Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DET-NOP OVER 233.5 (+3.4)
2. IND-BOS OVER 225.5 (+2.4)
3. CLE-CHA OVER 236.5 (+1.7)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ATL-MEM UNDER 239.5 (-4.2)
2. OKC-MIL UNDER 226.5 (-2.8)
3. TOR-SAC UNDER 225.5 (-1.3)

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