The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Wednesday, January 28, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* Teams who have lost at least their last four games and are facing an opponent on 2+ Days Rest have had their games go Over the total at a 134-96-2 (58.3%) rate since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY OVER): ORL-MIA (o/u at 229.5) 

* NEW YORK is on a 10-0 SU and 8-1-1 ATS surge in the series versus Toronto
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (+1.5 at TOR) 

* NBA teams playing in One Day Rest scenario are 155-88 Under the total vs. teams in 4th in 10+ Days games over the last two seasons
System/Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CHA-MEM (o/u at 230.5) 

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures. 

* NBA teams playing at home in One Day Rest scenario were 99-69 Over the total vs. teams in 4th Straight Road games since the start of last season
System Match (PLAY OVER): LAL-CLE (o/u at 235.5) 

* ATLANTA is 133-99 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since November 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): ATL-BOS (o/u at 231.5) 

* CHARLOTTE is 146-107 Under the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since March 2021
* NBA teams playing in One Day Rest scenario are 155-88 Under the total vs. teams in 4th in 10+ Days games over the last two seasons
System/Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CHA-MEM (o/u at 230.5) 

* NBA teams playing on the road in One Day Rest scenario were 60-45 SU and 58-46 ATS vs. teams in back-to-back home games since start of last season
System Match (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE (-9.5 at UTA) 

* GOLDEN STATE is 132-98 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since December 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): GSW-UTA (o/u at 239.5) 

* NBA teams playing on home in 3+ Days Rest scenario are 22-12 SU and 24-9-1 ATS vs. teams in 3rd in 4 Days games over the last four seasons
* NBA teams playing at home in 3+ Days Rest scenario are 85-45 SU and 80-48-2 ATS vs. teams in One Day Rest games over the last four seasons
Systems Match (PLAY): DALLAS (+6.5 vs MIN) 

* NBA teams playing at home in 3rd in 8+ Days scenario are 17-7 Under the total vs. teams in 3rd in 4 Days games over the last two seasons
* NBA teams playing in 3rd in 4 Days scenario are 51-27 Under the total vs. teams in 4th in 10+ Days games over the last two seasons
* NBA teams playing in One Day Rest scenario are 155-88 Under the total vs. teams in 4th in 10+ Days games over the last two seasons
Systems Match (PLAY UNDER): MIN-DAL (o/u at 228.5) 

* HOUSTON is 121-98 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since December 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SAS-HOU (o/u at 220.5) 

* NBA teams playing on road in One Day Rest scenario are 212-267 SU but 270-201-8 ATS vs. teams in 2 Days Rest games over the last four seasons
System Match (PLAY): ORLANDO (+2.5 at MIA) 

* ORLANDO is 116-83 Under the total playing in all One Day Rest games since March 2022
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): ORL-MIA (o/u at 229.5) 

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games: 

(543) LA LAKERS at (544) CLEVELAND
* Favorites are 7-2 SU and ATS in the last nine of the LAL-CLE non-conference set
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-2.5 vs LAL)

* Over the total is 9-2 in the last 11 of the series at Cleveland as well
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): LAL-CLE (o/u at 235.5) 

(545) CHICAGO at (546) INDIANA
* INDIANA is 5-1 SU and ATS in the last six meetings with divisional foe Chicago
Trend Match (PLAY): INDIANA (+2.5 vs CHI)

(547) ATLANTA at (548) BOSTON
* Road teams are 4-0 SU and ATS in the last four of the ATL-BOS series
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (+6.5 at BOS) 

(549) ORLANDO at (550) MIAMI
* Over the total is 4-1 in the last five of the Magic-Heat divisional set at Kaseya Center
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): ORL-MIA (o/u at 229.5) 

(551) NEW YORK at (552) TORONTO
* NEW YORK is on a 10-0 SU and 8-1-1 ATS surge in the series versus Toronto
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (+1.5 at TOR) 

(553) CHARLOTTE at (554) MEMPHIS
* Over the total is 7-1 in the last eight of the Hornets-Grizzlies  non-conference series at Memphis
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CHA-MEM (o/u at 230.5) 

(555) MINNESOTA at (556) DALLAS
* Underdogs are 9-3 ATS in the last 12 of the MIN-DAL set
Trend Match (PLAY): DALLAS (+6.5 vs MIN) 

(559) SAN ANTONIO at (560) HOUSTON
* Home teams are 9-2 SU and 10-1 ATS in the last 11 of the Spurs-Rockets in-state rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-2.5 vs SAS) 

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 177-67 SU and 142-101-1 ATS (58.4%) run.
System Match (PLAY): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR HOUSTON vs SAS, -2.5 CURRENTLY 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #6:
Divisional single-digit home underdogs winning 38% of their games or less have gone 46-131 SU and 78-94-5 ATS (45.3%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE): INDIANA (+2.5 vs CHI) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 133-105 (55.9%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 245-205 (54.4%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 329-261 (55.8%).
System Match (PLAY): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR GSW-UTA (spread +9.5, total 239.5) 

The following handicapping information details betting systems for divisional games.

Eastern Atlantic Division Betting System #1:
In Eastern Atlantic divisional games, single-digit favorites have gone 95-39 SU and 79-62-3 ATS (56%) since the start of the 2022-23 season.
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-1.5 vs NYK) 

Eastern Southeast Division Betting System #3:
In Eastern Southeast divisional games, home teams on two days rest or more are 20-9 to the Over (69%) since the start of the 2022-23 season.
System Match (PLAY OVER): ORL-MIA (o/u at 229.5)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted. 

Favorites flush low scoring totals quickly
NBA teams that come off a game in which they scored 90 points or fewer have responded well when favored in the next outing, going 157-58 SU and 127-86-2 ATS (59.6%) in their last 215 tries.
System Match (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE (-9.5 at UTA) 

Divisional upsets can create urgency
NBA teams that lose as favorites to divisional opponents have bounced back well when facing another divisional foe, going 109-69 SU and 102-73-3 ATS (58.3%) in that follow-up try over the last five seasons.
System Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (+2.5 at HOU) 

Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest as well, going 174-113 SU and 163-117-7 ATS (58.2%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-6.5 at DAL) 

High TO games can be significant
NBA teams that committed 20+ turnovers in the previous game have done well in expected-tight matchups (within -4 to +4 line range) in the follow-up game, going 88-59 SU and 91-55-1 ATS (62.3%) in their last 147 tries.
System Match (PLAY): CHARLOTTE (-2.5 at MEM)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NBA Streak Betting System #7:
Teams who have lost at least their last four games and are facing an opponent on 2+ Days Rest have had their games go Over the total at a 134-96-2 (58.3%) rate since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY OVER): ORL-MIA (o/u at 229.5) 

NBA Streak Betting System #10:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 106-112 SU but 126-90-3 ATS (58.3%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): ORLANDO (+2.5 at MIA)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:00 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2025-26 season, the sample contained 633 games, and for the most part, majority bettors have lost on all six point spread, money line, and total categories. In fact, this has been the worst half-season they have endured since I started studying this subject a few years ago. Here are the results: 

– Majority handle on point spreads: 291-335 ATS (46.5%), -77.5 units – ROI: -12.4%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 287-323 ATS (47%), -68.3 units – ROI: -11.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 379-247 (60.5%). -123.2 units – ROI: -20.2%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 404-227 (64%). -113.7 units – ROI: -18%
– Majority handle on totals: 306-310 (49.7%). -35 units – ROI: -5.7%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 307-318 (49.1%), -42.8 units – ROI: -6.8% 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 211-174 ATS (54.8%) over the last 3+ seasons, good for +19.6 units of profit and an ROI of 5.1%. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently.  If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, TORONTO, UTAH 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 868-785 ATS (52.5%) over the last 3+ seasons. This has produced a profit of +4.5 units and an ROI of 0.3%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. However, it is down over 20 units so far in ’25-26 so perhaps tread lightly. Even still, remember that handle is the total amount of money on a game and is generally considered sharper. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): CHICAGO, CHARLOTTE, SAN ANTONIO 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 135-106 ATS record (56%).  This has netted +18.4 units and an ROI of 7.6%. As a general rule, most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 241 games was only about 5.0% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DALLAS, UTAH 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 456-412 ATS record (52.5%), good for +2.8 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%. This is another system that has dropped a bit this season but has still outperformed the normal levels by a decent amount. We’ll see if it can stay positive in the second half of the season.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): ORLANDO, DALLAS, UTAH 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning number of bets. When 70% or more of the number of bets have been on a home side of an ATS wager since January 2023, this “super” majority group has gone just 104-142 ATS (42.3%), well below the overall performance of all majorities. This has resulted in a net loss of -52.2 units for an ROI of -21.2%.
System Match (FADE): UTAH 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last 3+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been mildly successful, as they are 461-417 ATS (52.5%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed just over a 50% success rate, they were about 2.5% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +2.3 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): CLEVELAND 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 3+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 579-508 ATS record, good for 54.2%. This is over a 4% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +20.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.9%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON, UTAH 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher, however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last three seasons, they are just 166-189 ATS, good for 46.8%. This is a 3%+ drop compared to the overall majority figures and has resulted in -41.9 units of loss and an ROI of -11.8%.
System Match (FADE): TORONTO 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1454-663 over the last 3+ seasons but for -277.83 units and an ROI of -13.1%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 1113-757 but for -72.73 units and an ROI of -3.9%. This 9.2% disparity warrants outright fading ML majorities on home teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND ML, BOSTON ML, UTAH ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last 3+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 484-393, good for 55.2%, +51.7 units, and an ROI of +5.9% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): ORL-MIA, NYK-TOR, CHA-MEM, MIN-DAL, GSW-UTA, SAS-HOU

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 409-367 (52.7%) for +5.3 units and an ROI of +0.7% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – LAL-CLE, CHA-MEM
UNDER – CHI-IND, ATL-BOS, ORL-MIA, MIN-DAL 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 200-153 (56.7%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap. This has been the most profitable angle of all in terms of ROI, producing +31.7 units of profit for 9%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): ORL-MEM, SAS-HOU

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses). 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. INDIANA +2.5 (+1.6)
2. DALLAS +6.5 (+1.4)
3. UTAH +9.5 (+1.2) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIAMI -2.5 (+0.7)
2(tie). BOSTON -6.5 (+0.3)
HOUSTON -2.5 (+0.3) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MEMPHIS +2.5 (+1.3)
2. LA LAKERS +3.5 (+1.2)
3. NEW YORK +1.5 (+0.5) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIAMI -2.5 (+1.5)
2. BOSTON -6.5 (+0.5)
3. HOUSTON -2.5 (+0.1) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GSW-UTA OVER 239.5 (+2.1)
2. MIN-DAL OVER 228.5 (+1.0) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LAL-CLE UNDER 235.5 (-1.7)
2. ORL-MIA UNDER 229.5 (-1.5)
3. NYK-TOR UNDER 220.5 (-1.4) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. INDIANA +2.5 (+2.5)
2. DALLAS +6.5 (+2.0)
3. UTAH +9.5 (+1.7) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: MIAMI -2.5 (+1.5) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GSW-UTA OVER 239.5 (+5.2)
2. CHA-MEM OVER 230.5 (+2.0)
3. CHI-IND OVER 235.5 (+1.6) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LAL-CLE UNDER 235.5 (-0.6)
2. ORL-MIA UNDER 229.5 (-0.5)
3. MIN-DAL UNDER 228.5 (-0.4)

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