Today’s NBA Betting Trends
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Wednesday, January 7, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Favorites are on 13-2 SU and ATS run in the HOU-POR series since the start of the 2021-22 season
Trend Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-6.5 at POR)
* NBA teams that come off a game in which they scored 90 points or fewer have responded well when favored in the next outing, going 155-58 SU and 125-86-2 ATS (59.2%) in their last 213 tries.
System Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-4.5 vs LAC)
* Teams who have lost at least their last four games and are playing their fourth straight road game have been bad, going 9-33 SU and 14-27-1 ATS (34.1%) against conference opponents since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE): UTAH (+17.5 at OKC)
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures.
* NBA teams playing in back-to-back away scenarios are 16-31 SU and 18-28-1 ATS vs. hosts in 2 Days Rest games over the last two seasons
System Match (FADE): ORLANDO (-1.5 at BKN)
* NBA teams playing in back-to-back away/home scenarios are 36-34 SU and 31-39 ATS vs. teams in 4th in 6 Days games over the last two seasons
System Match (FADE): SAN ANTONIO (-8.5 vs LAL)
* NBA teams playing in back-to-back away/home scenarios are 22-9 Under the total vs. teams in back-to-back away games over the last two seasons
System Match (PLAY UNDER): LAL-SAS (o/u at 237.5)
* NBA teams playing on the road in One Day Rest scenario were 56-44 SU and 54-45 ATS vs. teams in back-to-back home games since the start of last season
System Match (PLAY): PHOENIX (-4.5 at MEM)
* ATLANTA is 130-93 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since November 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): NOP-ATL (o/u at 247.5)
* CHARLOTTE is 144-103 Under the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since March 2021
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TOR-CHA (o/u at 230.5)
* DENVER is 85-51 Over the total playing in 4th in 6 Days games since March 2021
* NBA teams playing at home in One Day Rest scenario were 91-61 Over the total vs. teams in 4th Straight Road games since the start of last Season
System/Trend Match (PLAY OVER): DEN-BOS (o/u at 232.5)
* GOLDEN STATE is 29-31 SU and 19-38 ATS playing home games in the One Day Rest scenario since November 2023
Trend Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (-5.5 vs MIL)
* GOLDEN STATE is 126-96 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since December 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIL-GSW (o/u at 230.5)
* HOUSTON is 119-92 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since December 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): HOU-POR (o/u at 221.5)
* OKLAHOMA CITY is 39-6 SU and 34-10-1 ATS playing at home in the One Day Rest scenario since March 2024
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-17.5 vs UTA)
* UTAH is 93-64 Over the total playing in One Day Rest games since November 2022
* NBA teams playing at home in One Day Rest scenario were 91-61 Over the total vs. teams in 4th Straight Road games since the start of last Season
System/Trend Match (PLAY OVER): UTA-OKC (o/u at 240.5)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(529) TORONTO at (530) CHARLOTTE
* Underdogs are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings between TOR and CHA at Spectrum Center
Trend Match (PLAY): CHARLOTTE (+1.5 vs TOR)
(531) CHICAGO at (532) DETROIT
* Over the total is 5-1 in the last six of the Bulls-Pistons divisional rivalry in the Motor City
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CHI-DET (o/u at 231.5)
(533) WASHINGTON at (534) PHILADELPHIA
* PHILADELPHIA is 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS in the last 10 games with Washington
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-13.5 vs WSH)
(535) LA CLIPPERS at (536) NEW YORK
* Favorites are 10-1 SU and ATS in the last 11 meetings between LAC and NYK at Madison Square Garden
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-4.5 vs LAC)
(537) ORLANDO at (538) BROOKLYN
* Road teams are 4-0 ATS in the last four of the Magic-Nets series
Trend Match (PLAY): ORLANDO (-1.5 at BKN)
(539) DENVER at (540) BOSTON
* Under the total is 6-1 in the last seven matchups between DEN and BOS at TD Garden
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): DEN-BOS (o/u at 232.5)
(541) NEW ORLEANS at (542) ATLANTA
* ATLANTA is 4-1 SU and ATS versus New Orleans since the start of the 2023-24 season
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-10.5 vs NOP)
(543) LA LAKERS at (544) SAN ANTONIO
* Over the total is 7-1-1 in the last nine of the Lakers-Spurs set
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): LAL-SAS (o/u at 237.5)
(545) PHOENIX at (546) MEMPHIS
* Underdogs are 2-5 SU but 6-1 ATS in the last seven of the PHX-MEM series
Trend Match (PLAY): MEMPHIS (+4.5 vs PHX)
(547) UTAH at (548) OKLAHOMA CITY
* Over the total is 11-3-1 in the last 15 of the UTA-OKC divisional series
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): UTA-OKC (o/u at 240.5)
(549) HOUSTON at (550) PORTLAND
* Favorites are on a 13-2 SU and ATS run in the HOU-POR series since the start of the 2021-22 season
Trend Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-6.5 at POR)
(551) MILWAUKEE at (552) GOLDEN STATE
* Home teams are 10-2 SU and ATS in the last 12 of the MIL-GSW non-conference series
Trend Match (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE (-5.5 vs MIL)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 171-66 SU and 139-97-1 ATS (58.9%) run.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-9.5 vs DEN), SAN ANTONIO (-8.5 vs LAL)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #8:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 128-101 (55.9%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 237-195 (54.9%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 327-255 (56.2%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – WSH-PHI (spread -13.5, total 235.5), NOP-ATL (spread -10.5, total 246.5)
UNDER – CHI-DET (spread -11.5, total 230.5), UTA-OKC (spread -17.5, total 240.5)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted.
Favorites flush low-scoring totals quickly
NBA teams that come off a game in which they scored 90 points or fewer have responded well when favored in the next outing, going 155-58 SU and 125-86-2 ATS (59.2%) in their last 213 tries.
System Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-4.5 vs LAC)
Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 296-163 SU but just 192-254-13 ATS (43%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): HOUSTON (-6.5 at POR)
Rout wins are a warning sign for the next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20-points or more are 321-250 SU but 257-299-15 ATS (46.2%) over the last seven seasons. The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 44-73-1 ATS (37.6%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHARLOTTE (+1.5 vs TOR), DETROIT (-11.5 vs CHI)
Upset wins over conference opponents lead to next game stumbles versus non-conference opponents
NBA teams coming off an upset win over an intra-conference foe have had problems when facing a non-conference opponent in the next game, going just 169-205 SU and 164-206-4 ATS (44.3%) since late-January 2021.
System Match (FADE): LA CLIPPERS (+4.5 at NYK)
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 373-323 (53.6%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): ORL-BKN (o/u at 222.5)
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 323-337 SU and 297-355-8 ATS (45.6%) in the next game over the last five seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHARLOTTE (+1.5 vs TOR), DETROIT (-11.5 vs CHI)
High TO games can be significant
NBA teams that committed 20+ turnovers in the previous game have done well in expected-tight matchups (within -4 to +4 line range) in the follow-up game, going 83-56 SU and 85-53-1 ATS (61.6%) in their L139 tries.
System Match (PLAY): CHARLOTTE (+1.5 vs TOR)
WATCH FOR MEMPHIS vs PHX, +4.5 CURRENTLY
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams who have lost at least their last four games and are playing their fourth straight road game have been bad, going 9-33 SU and 14-27-1 ATS (34.1%) against conference opponents since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE): UTAH (+17.5 at OKC)
NBA Streak Betting System #10:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 99-109 SU but 118-88-3 ATS (57.3%) surge.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW YORK (-4.5 vs LAC), NEW ORLEANS (+10.5 at ATL), UTAH (+17.5 at OKC)
NBA Streak Betting System #14:
Teams reaching winning OR losing streaks of 7 games or more become play against teams in general, going 287-331-4 ATS (46.4%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of 7 games or more have been terrible in road games, going 34-147 SU and 79-96-6 ATS (45.1%).
System Match (FADE): NEW ORLEANS (+10.5 at ATL)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
To summarize the findings from the full 2024-25 season, the sample contained 1,321 games, and for the most part, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while both struggled on money lines. The full season performance by the majority handle on totals last year in the NBA was better than any other sport I have covered. In fact, these were the results:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 660-614 ATS (51.8%), -15.4 units – ROI: -1.2%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 618-645 ATS (48.9%), -91.5 units – ROI: -7.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 842-458 (64.8%). -123.18 units – ROI: -9.5%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 886-421 (67.8%). -137.95 units – ROI: -10.6%
– Majority handle on totals: 708-594 (54.4%). +54.6 units – ROI: +4.2%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 670-621 (51.9%), -13.1 units – ROI: -1%
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 748-665 ATS (52.9%) over the last three seasons. This has produced a profit of +16.5 units and an ROI of 1.2%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW ORLEANS, PHOENIX, MILWAUKEE
DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last three seasons, that group produced a 94-70 ATS record (57.3%). This has netted +17 units and an ROI of 10.4%. As a general rule, most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 164 games was only about 4.0% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): CHARLOTTE
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 352-298 ATS record (54.2%), good for +24.2 units of profit and an ROI of 3.7%. This lot of 650 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHARLOTTE, BOSTON, NEW ORLEANS, MILWAUKEE
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last three seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 395-348 ATS (53.2%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.2% success rate, they were about 2% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +12.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.6%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): BOSTON, NEW YORK, NEW ORLEANS, MILWAUKEE
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 494-413 ATS record, good for 54.5%. This is over a 3% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +39.7 units of profit and an ROI of 4.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA, PHOENIX, SAN ANTONIO
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number has favored the Under option over the last three seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 434-351, good for 55.3%, +47.9 units, and an ROI of +6.1% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): CHI-DET, WSH-PHI, LAC-NYK, LAL-SAS, HOU-POR
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 346-301 (53.5%) for +14.9 units and an ROI of +2.3% since January 2023.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): OVER – PHX-MEM, LAL-SAS
UNDER – WSH-PHI
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 176-126 (58.3%) since January ’23 by not getting baited into this totals trap. This has been the most profitable angle of all in terms of ROI, producing +37.4 units of profit for 12.4%.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): LAL-SAS
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BROOKLYN +1.5 (+3.4)
2. LA LAKERS +8.5 (+2.1)
3. CHICAGO +11.5 (+1.7)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW YORK -4.5 (+2.2)
2. OKLAHOMA CITY -17.5 (+1.5)
3. BOSTON -9.5 (+1.0)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. UTAH +17.5 (+4.7)
2. BROOKLYN +1.5 (+2.4)
3. LA CLIPPERS +4.5 (+0.6)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHILADELPHIA -13.5 (+1.8)
2. HOUSTON -6.5 (+1.4)
3. GOLDEN STATE -5.5 (+0.9)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DEN-BOS OVER 232.5 (+1.6)
2. UTA-OKC OVER 240.5 (+1.2)
3. HOU-POR OVER 221.5 (+1.1)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. WSH-PHI UNDER 235.5 (-2.8)
2. NOP-ATL UNDER 247.5 (-1.5)
3. LAL-SAS UNDER 236.5 (-1.2)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BROOKLYN +1.5 (+3.9)
2. LA LAKERS +8.5 (+1.9)
3. CHICAGO +11.5 (+1.8)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW YORK -4.5 (+4.3)
2. PHILADELPHIA -13.5 (+2.1)
3. OKLAHOMA CITY -17.5 (+1.8)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHI-DET OVER 230.5 (+3.6)
2. HOU-POR OVER 221.5 (+3.5)
3. UTA-OKC OVER 240.5 (+2.4)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LAL-SAS UNDER 236.5 (-1.2)
2(tie). TOR-CHA UNDER 230.5 (-1.1)
PHX-MEM UNDER 232.5 (-1.1)
