Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Wednesday, March 18, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* NBA teams that committed 20+ turnovers in the previous game have done well in expected-tight matchups (within -4 to +4 line range) in the follow-up game, going 97-67 SU and 99-64-1 ATS (60.7%) in their last 164 tries.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-2.5 vs LAL)
* DENVER is 14-1 Over the total (93.3%) vs teams currently winning less than 40% of their games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): DEN-MEM (o/u at 243.5)
* NEW ORLEANS is 8-3 SU and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 instances of hosting the LA Clippers
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (-1.5 vs LAC)
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures.
* ATLANTA is 137-107 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since November 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): ATL-DAL (o/u at 238.5)
* TORONTO is 14-4 SU and 13-5 ATS (72.2%) on the road versus teams that currently have losing records
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-7.5 at CHI)
* GOLDEN STATE is 137-104 OVER the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since December 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): GSW-BOS (o/u at 216.5)
* PORTLAND is 33-31 SU but 44-18 ATS playing in 3rd in 4 Days games since October 2023
* NBA teams playing on road in One Day Rest scenario are 61-52 SU and 64-47 ATS vs. teams in back-to-back away/home games over the last two seasons
* INDIANA is 14-29 SU and 10-32-1 ATS playing in 4th in 6 Days games since November 2024
System/Trends Match (PLAY): PORTLAND (-11.5 at IND)
* NBA teams playing on roadin One Day Rest scenario are 61-52 Over the total vs. teams in back-to-back away/home games over the last two seasons
* PORTLAND is 20-9 Over the total (69%) as a favorite this season
* PORTLAND is 73-42 Under the total playing in 3rd in 4 Days games since Apr ’21
System/Trends Match: 2 PLAYS OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in POR-IND (o/u at 232.5)
* DENVER is 14-1 Over the total (93.3%) vs teams currently winning less than 40% of their games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): DEN-MEM (o/u at 243.5)
* HOUSTON is 22-10 Unde the total (68.8%) at home this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): LAL-HOU (o/u at 222.5)
* OKLAHOMA CITY is just 4-7 SU and 2-9 ATS (18.2%) on the back end of back-to-back games
Trend Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-19.5 at BKN)
* BROOKLYN is 23-10 Over the total playing at home in the One Day Rest scenario since February 2025
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): OKC-BKN (o/u at 213.5)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(533) GOLDEN STATE at (534) BOSTON
* Road teams are 3-0 SU and ATS in GSW-BOS non-conference series since the start of last season
Trend Match (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE (+11.5 at BOS)
(535) OKLAHOMA CITY at (536) BROOKLYN
* Home teams are 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS in the last six of the OKC-BKN set
Trend Match (PLAY): BROOKLYN (+19.5 vs OKC)
(537) PORTLAND at (538) INDIANA
* PORTLAND is 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in games versus Indiana since the start of the 2023-24 season
Trend Match (PLAY): PORTLAND (-11.5 at IND)
(539) UTAH at (540) MINNESOTA
* Home teams are 5-1 SU and ATS in the last six of the Jazz-Twolves divisional series
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-13.5 vs UTA)
(541) LA CLIPPERS at (542) NEW ORLEANS
* NEW ORLEANS is 8-3 SU and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 instances of hosting LA Clippers
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (-1.5 vs LAC)
(543) TORONTO at (544) CHICAGO
* Under the total is on an extended 10-2 run in the TOR-CHI series at the United Center
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TOR-CHI (o/u at 234.5)
(547) ATLANTA at (548) DALLAS
* Underdogs are 6-2 ATS in the last eight of the Hawks-Mavericks non-conference series at Dallas
Trend Match (PLAY): DALLAS (+8.5 vs ATL)
(549) LA LAKERS at (550) HOUSTON
* Favorites are on surges of 5-0 SU and 4-0 ATS in the LAL-HOU set
Trend Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-2.5 vs LAL)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 138-113 (55%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 259-215 (54.6%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 346-278 (55.4%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – GSW-BOS (spread -11.5, total 216.5), OKC-BKN (spread +19.5, total 213.5), POR-IND (spread +11.5, total 232.5), DEN-MEM (spread +12.5, total 243.5)
UNDER – UTA-MIN (spread -13.5, total 230.5)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted.
Teams not making many free throws bounce back well
NBA teams that are coming off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing, and are on a 198-174 SU and 202-160-10 ATS (55.8%) run.
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA (+11.5 vs POR)
High TO games can be significant
NBA teams that committed 20+ turnovers in the previous game have done well in expected-tight matchups (within -4 to +4 line range) in the follow-up game, going 97-67 SU and 99-64-1 ATS (60.7%) in their L164 tries.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-2.5 vs LAL)
Winning but not covering has been a problem
Teams that won their previous game but didn’t cover the spread have been bad in their zero rest follow-up game recently, going 63-72 SU and 48-85-2 ATS (36.1%) since the start of the 2022-23 season.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-19.5 at BKN)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #2:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5 points or more, going 95-24 SU and 65-51-3 ATS (56%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY (-19.5 at BKN), ATLANTA (-8.5 at DAL)
NBA Streak Betting System #5:
Teams having won their last four games and playing on a back-to-back as favorites of 4 points or more versus below-.500 teams are 54-13 SU and 40-27 ATS (59.7%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-19.5 at BKN)
NBA Streak Betting System #10:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 115-137 SU but 141-109-3 ATS (56.4%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): MEMPHIS (+12.5 vs DEN)
NBA Streak Betting System #13:
When teams on alternate streaks of at least 4 games go head-to-head, the teams on the losing streaks have gone 38-91 SU but 70-59 ATS (54.3%) over the last five seasons.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): BROOKLYN (+19.5 vs OKC)
NBA Streak Betting System #14:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of 7 games or more become play against teams in general, going 317-366-4 ATS (46.4%) in the next outing since 2020.
System Matches (FADE ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY (-19.5 at BKN), INDIANA (+11.5 vs POR), MEMPHIS (+12.5 vs DEN), ATLANTA (-8.5 at DAL)
NBA Streak Betting System #15:
Teams reaching an 8-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 76-100-1 ATS (43.2%) in the next game, including 35-51 ATS (40.7%) on the road over the last five seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY (-19.5 at BKN), ATLANTA (-8.5 at DAL)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 9:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2025-26 season, the sample contained 633 games, and for the most part, majority bettors have lost on all six point spread, money line, and total categories. In fact, this has been the worst half-season they have endured since I started studying this subject a few years ago. Here are the results:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 291-335 ATS (46.5%), -77.5 units – ROI: -12.4%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 287-323 ATS (47%), -68.3 units – ROI: -11.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 379-247 (60.5%). -123.2 units – ROI: -20.2%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 404-227 (64%). -113.7 units – ROI: -18%
– Majority handle on totals: 306-310 (49.7%). -35 units – ROI: -5.7%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 307-318 (49.1%), -42.8 units – ROI: -6.8%
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 211-174 ATS (54.8%) over the last 3+ seasons, good for +19.6 units of profit and an ROI of 5.1%. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently. If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO, DALLAS, HOUSTON
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 868-785 ATS (52.5%) over the last 3+ seasons. This has produced a profit of +4.5 units and an ROI of 0.3%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. However, it is down over 20 units so far in ’25-26 so perhaps tread lightly. Even still, remember that handle is the total amount of money on a game and is generally considered sharper. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY, PORTLAND, DENVER
DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 135-106 ATS record (56%). This has netted +18.4 units and an ROI of 7.6%. As a general rule, most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 241 games was only about 5.0% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO, DALLAS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 456-412 ATS record (52.5%), good for +2.8 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%. This is another system that has dropped a bit this season but has still outperformed the normal levels by a decent amount. We’ll see if it can stay positive in the second half of the season.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): GOLDEN STATE, CHICAGO, DALLAS, HOUSTON
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last 3+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been mildly successful, as they are 461-417 ATS (52.5%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed just over a 50% success rate, they were about 2.5% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +2.3 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY, PORTLAND
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 3+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 579-508 ATS record, good for 54.2%. This is over a 4% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +20.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.9%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO, DENVER, HOUSTON
DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher, however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last three seasons, they are just 166-189 ATS, good for 46.8%. This is a 3%+ drop compared to the overall majority figures and has resulted in -41.9 units of loss and a ROI of -11.8%.
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a MASSIVE disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the HOME OR ROAD team on MONEY LINE wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1454-663 over the last 3+ seasons but for -277.83 units and an ROI of -13.1%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 1113-757 but for -72.73 units and an ROI of -3.9%. This 9.2% disparity warrants outright fading ML majorities on home teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON ML, MINNESOTA ML, HOUSTON ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last 3+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 484-393, good for 55.2%, +51.7 units, and an ROI of +5.9% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): POR-IND, TOR-CHI, ATL-DAL
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 409-367 (52.7%) for +5.3 units and an ROI of +0.7% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – POR-IND, UTA-MIN, LAC-NOP, ATL-DAL
UNDER – TOR-CHI
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a bit more than 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 408-345 (54.2%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 398-359 (52.6%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – GSW-BOS, OKC-BKN
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1(tie). INDIANA +11.5 (+1.8)
CHICAGO +7.5 (+1.8)
3. LA LAKERS +2.5 (+1.6)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MINNESOTA -13.5 (+3.0)
2. DENVER -12.5 (+1.4)
3. NEW ORLEANS -1.5 (+1.1)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DALLAS +8.5 (+3.9)
2. CHICAGO +7.5 (+3.4)
3. GOLDEN STATE +11.5 (+2.4)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW ORLEANS -1.5 (+2.7)
2. MINNESOTA -13.5 (+1.9)
3. OKLAHOMA CITY -19.5 (+1.5)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. UTA-MIN OVER 230.5 (+0.6)
2. DEN-MEM OVER 243.5 (+0.5)
Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. POR-IND UNDER 232.5 (-1.8)
2. GSW-BOS UNDER 216.5 (-1.6)
3. LAL-HOU UNDER 222.5 (-1.3)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GOLDEN STATE +11.5 (+2.7)
2. DALLAS +8.5 (+1.4)
3. INDIANA +11.5 (+1.3)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MINNESOTA -13.5 (+3.7)
2. OKLAHOMA CITY -19.5 (+2.6)
3. DENVER -12.5 (+2.1)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OKC-BKN OVER 213.5 (+2.8)
2. DEN-MEM OVER 243.5 (+0.4)
Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LAC-NOP UNDER 234.5 (-4.9)
2. GSW-BOS UNDER 216.5 (-2.1)
3. POR-IND UNDER 232.5 (-1.9)
