Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Wednesday, March 4, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Teams that won their previous game but didn’t cover the spread have been bad in their zero rest follow-up game recently, going 59-71 SU and 46-82-2 ATS (35.9%) since the start of the 2022-23 season.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-4.5 at NYK)
* Teams having won their last five games or more but are playing as underdogs against elite teams with a win pct >= 65% have seen their totals go Under at a 36-18-1 (66.7%) rate since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CHA-BOS (o/u at 213.5)
* Over the total is 11-2 in the last 13 of the Pacers-Clippers non-conference set in Los Angeles
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): IND-LAC (o/u at 227.5)
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures.
* OKLAHOMA CITY is just 3-7 SU and 2-8 ATS (20%) on the back end of back-to-back games
* NBA teams playing in a back-to-back away/home scenario are 39-37 SU and 33-43 ATS vs. teams in 4th in 6 Days games over the last two seasons
System/Trend Match: 1 FADE ON OKLAHOMA CITY, 1 FADE ON NEW YORK
* NBA teams playing in a back-to-back away/home scenario are 25-10 Under the total vs. teams in back-to-back away games over the last two seasons
System Match (PLAY UNDER): OKC-NYK (o/u at 222.5)
* NBA teams playing on the road in One Day Rest scenario were 67-51 SU and 64-53 ATS vs. teams in back-to-back home games since the start of last season
* PHILADELPHIA is 8-3 SU and 10-1 ATS (90.9%) on the back end of back-to-back games
System/Trend Match: 1 PLAY ON UTAH, 1 PLAY ON PHILADELPHIA
* UTAH is 101-73 Over the total playing in One Day Rest games since November 2022
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): UTA-PHI (o/u at 237.5)
* MILWAUKEE is 25-10 Over the total playing at home in the One Day Rest scenario since January 2025
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): ATL-MIL (o/u at 231.5)
* NBA teams playing on the road in 2 Days Rest scenario are 16-15 SU and 19-12 ATS vs. teams in back-to-back away/home games over the last two seasons
System Match (PLAY): PORTLAND (-9.5 at MEM)
* PORTLAND is 17-7 Over the total (70.8%) as a favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): POR-MEM (o/u at 235.5)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(551) OKLAHOMA CITY at (552) NEW YORK
* Over the total is 7-1 in the last eight of the Thunder-Knicks series at Madison Square Garden
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): OKC-NYK (o/u at 222.5)
* OKLAHOMA CITY is 13-4 ATS in the last 17 of the overall series as well
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-4.5 at NYK)
(553) CHARLOTTE at (554) BOSTON
* BOSTON is 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in their last five games hosting Charlotte
Trend Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-6.5 vs CHA)
(555) UTAH at (556) PHILADELPHIA
* Underdogs 2-3 SU but 5-0 ATS in the UTA-PHI non-conference series since the start of 2023
Trend Match (PLAY): UTAH (+8.5 at PHI)
(557) PORTLAND at (558) MEMPHIS
* Under the total is 5-1 in the last six of the Trail Blazers-Grizzlies set at FedEx Forum
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): POR-MEM (o/u at 235.5)
(559) ATLANTA at (560) MILWAUKEE
* Road teams are on 8-2 SU and ATS surge in the last 10 non-neutral meetings between Milwaukee and Atlanta
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (+1.5 at MIL)
(561) INDIANA at (562) LA CLIPPERS
* Over the total is 11-2 in the last 13 of the Pacers-Clippers non-conference set in Los Angeles
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): IND-LAC (o/u at 227.5)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Home teams with a winning record that are underdogs of five-points or more have gone 13-47 SU and 24-34-2 ATS (41.4%) in their last 60 non-conference games.
System Match (FADE): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR NEW YORK vs OKC (+4.5 CURRENTLY)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 137-110 (55.5%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 251-211 (54.3%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 343-270 (56%).
System Match (PLAY): OVER – IND-LAC (spread -11.5, total 226.5)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted.
Allowing 135+ points in a game is a sign of trouble
NBA teams off of a game in which they allowed 135+ points and are now favored have gone 189-112 SU but 138-159-4 ATS (46.5%) in the follow-up contest over the last seven seasons. Included among this is a 110-141 ATS (43.8%) mark when not playing the next day.
System Match (FADE): PORTLAND (-9.5 at MEM)
Favorites flush low-scoring totals quickly
NBA teams that come off a game in which they scored 90 points or fewer have responded well when favored in the next outing, going 162-61 SU and 132-89-2 ATS (59.7%) in their last 223 tries.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-1.5 vs ATL)
Rout wins are a warning sign for the next contest for the hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 339-261 SU but 273-312-15 ATS (46.7%) over the last seven seasons.
System Match (FADE ATS): BOSTON (-6.5 vs CHA)
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 202-215 SU and 192-215-10 ATS (47.2%) in that next contest over the last seven seasons.
System Match (FADE): CHARLOTTE (+6.5 at BOS)
Teams not making many free throws bounce back well
NBA teams that are coming off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing, and are on a 197-172 SU and 202-157-10 ATS (56.3%) run.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-6.5 vs CHA)
Massive rebounding differentials
NBA teams that had a -15 or worse rebounding differential have struggled to tighten up in a back-to-back situation, going Over the total at a 107-74 (59.1%) rate since 2021, including 52-31 (62.7%) to the Over in the last 83.
System Match (PLAY OVER): POR-MEM (o/u at 235.5)
Winning but not covering has been a problem
Teams that won their previous game but didn’t cover the spread have been bad in their zero rest follow-up game recently, going 59-71 SU and 46-82-2 ATS (35.9%) since the start of the 2022-23 season.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-4.5 at NYK)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #3:
Teams having won their last five games or more but are playing as underdogs against elite teams with a win pct >= 65% have seen their totals go Under at a 36-18-1 (66.7%) rate since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CHA-BOS (o/u at 213.5)
NBA Streak Betting System #10:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 113-131 SU but 136-106-3 ATS (56.2%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): UTAH (+8.5 at PHI)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:25 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2025-26 season, the sample contained 633 games, and for the most part, majority bettors have lost on all six point spread, money line, and total categories. In fact, this has been the worst half-season they have endured since I started studying this subject a few years ago. Here are the results:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 291-335 ATS (46.5%), -77.5 units – ROI: -12.4%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 287-323 ATS (47%), -68.3 units – ROI: -11.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 379-247 (60.5%). -123.2 units – ROI: -20.2%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 404-227 (64%). -113.7 units – ROI: -18%
– Majority handle on totals: 306-310 (49.7%). -35 units – ROI: -5.7%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 307-318 (49.1%), -42.8 units – ROI: -6.8%
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 868-785 ATS (52.5%) over the last 3+ seasons. This has produced a profit of +4.5 units and an ROI of 0.3%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. However, it is down over 20 units so far in 2025-26, so perhaps tread lightly. Even still, remember that handle is the total amount of money on a game and is generally considered sharper. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): INDIANA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 456-412 ATS record (52.5%), good for +2.8 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%. This is another system that has dropped a bit this season but has still outperformed the normal levels by a decent amount. We’ll see if it can stay positive in the second half of the season.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE, INDIANA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 3+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 579-508 ATS record, good for 54.2%. This is over a 4% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +20.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.9%.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last 3+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 484-393, good for 55.2%, +51.7 units, and an ROI of +5.9% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): UTA-PHI, POR-MEM
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 409-367 (52.7%) for +5.3 units and an ROI of +0.7% since January ’23.
System Match (PLAY): UNDER – ATL-MIL
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a bit more than 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 408-345 (54.2%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 398-359 (52.6%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Match (PLAY): OVER – CHA-BOS
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MEMPHIS +9.5 (+6.2)
2(tie). NEW YORK +4.5 (+3.1)
ATLANTA +1.5 (+3.1)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHILADELPHIA -8.5 (+3.6)
2. BOSTON -6.5 (+2.5)
3. LA CLIPPERS -11.5 (+0.4)
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MEMPHIS +9.5 (+7.7)
2. ATLANTA +1.5 (+3.3)
3. NEW YORK +4.5 (+1.3)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHILADELPHIA -8.5 (+1.6)
2. BOSTON -6.5 (+0.9)
3. LA CLIPPERS -11.5 (+0.6)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: ATL-MIL OVER 231.5 (+0.5)
Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. POR-MEM UNDER 235.5 (-4.3)
2. OKC-NYK UNDER 222.5 (-2.1)
3. CHA-BOS UNDER 213.5 (-2.0)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MEMPHIS +9.5 (+4.6)
2. ATLANTA +1.5 (+3.2)
3. NEW YORK +4.5 (+1.2)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHILADELPHIA -8.5 (+2.5)
2. BOSTON -6.5 (+1.7)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. UTA-PHI OVER 237.5 (+2.7)
2. ATL-MIL OVER 231.5 (+0.8)
3. IND-LAC OVER 227.5 (+0.1)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. POR-MEM UNDER 235.5 (-4.0)
2. CHA-BOS UNDER 213.5 (-3.5)
3. OKC-NYK UNDER 222.5 (-3.1)
