The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games on 11/11. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s NBA games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

* When teams on alternate streaks of at least 5 games go head-to-head, the teams on the losing streaks have gone 9-28 SU but 27-10 ATS (73%) when set as double-digit underdogs since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO (+14.5 vs SAS), MILWAUKEE (+13.5 vs LAL)

* NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 54-84-1 ATS (39.1%) in their last 139 divisional contests.
System Match (FADE ATS): PORTLAND (+1.5 vs OKC)

* BOSTON is 13-1 Under the total playing in the back-to-back away game scenario since November 2024
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BOS-TOR (o/u at 216.5)

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that’s the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they handle injuries and workloads under schedule pressure.

* WASHINGTON is 0-17 SU and 2-15 ATS playing in 4th in 6 Days games since Feb 2026
* WASHINGTON is 8-24 SU and 11-21 ATS (34.4%) vs. the lowest-scoring teams in the league this season (scoring <114 PPG), since the start of last season
* WASHINGTON is 71-178 SU and 103-140 ATS playing with One Day Rest since Nov 2021
Trends Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+2.5 at IND)

* CLEVELAND is just 29-35 SU and 20-44 ATS (31.3%) vs. teams that have winning records, since the start of last season
Trend Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (+4.5 at NYK)

* NBA teams playing in the 3rd in 8+ Days game scenario are 49-23 SU and 42-27 ATS vs. teams playing a 4th Straight Road game since 2020
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (+15.5 vs SAS)

* NBA teams playing at home in the One Day Rest game scenario are 90-54 Under the total hosting teams in a 4th in 10+ Days game over the last four seasons
* CHICAGO is 10-0 Under the total playing at home with 2 Days Rest since February 2025
System/Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SAS-CHI (o/u at 238.5)

* BOSTON is 15-4 SU and 16-3 ATS playing its 3rd Straight Road game since January 2025
Trend Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-5.5 at TOR)

* BOSTON is 13-1 Under the total playing in the back-to-back away game scenario since November 2024
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BOS-TOR (o/u at 216.5)

* GOLDEN STATE is 135-127 SU but 113-145 ATS playing in One Day Rest games since January 2022
Trend Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (+6.5 at HOU)

* LA LAKERS are 106-64 SU and 101-68 ATS playing with One Day Rest since Nov 2023
Trend Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS (-14.5 at MIL)

* NBA teams playing in the back-to-back away game scenario are 17-40 SU and 19-35 ATS vs. teams playing a 3rd Straight Home game over the last four seasons
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-1.5 at POR)

* NBA teams playing in the back-to-back home game scenario are 17-11 SU and 20-8 ATS vs. teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last four seasons
System Match (PLAY): UTAH (+3.5 vs ORL)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(529) CLEVELAND at (530) NEW YORK
* NEW YORK has won and covered all five meetings since the start of last year’s Eastern Conference Finals
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-4.5 vs CLE)

(531) BOSTON at (532) TORONTO
* BOSTON is 4-1 SU and 3-1-1 ATS in their last five visits to Scotiabank Arena
Trend Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-5.5 at TOR)

(533) WASHINGTON at (534) INDIANA
* Under the total is 8-1 in the last nine of the Wizards-Pacers set at Gainbridge Fieldhouse
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): WSH-IND (o/u at 228.5)

(535) BROOKLYN at (536) NEW ORLEANS
* Favorites have won and covered seven straight meetings between Brooklyn and New Orleans
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (-3.5 vs BKN)

(537) DENVER at (538) MEMPHIS
* MEMPHIS is 1-2 SU and 3-0 ATS versus Denver since the start of 2026
Trend Match (PLAY): MEMPHIS (+3.5 vs DEN)

(539) SAN ANTONIO at (540) CHICAGO
* CHICAGO is 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS in their last eight matchups with San Antonio
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (+15.5 vs SAS)

(541) LA LAKERS at (542) MILWAUKEE
* Road teams are on a 9-3 SU and 10-2 ATS surge in the Lakers-Bucks non-conference series
Trend Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS (-14.5 at MIL)

(543) ORLANDO at (544) UTAH
* Underdogs are 3-5 SU but 6-2 ATS in the last eight of the Magic-Jazz set
Trend Match (PLAY): UTAH (+3.5 vs ORL)

(545) GOLDEN STATE at (546) HOUSTON
* Underdogs have covered five straight ATS in the Warriors-Rockets series (4-1 SU)
Trend Match (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE (+6.5 at HOU)

(547) OKLAHOMA CITY at (548) PORTLAND
* Home teams are on a 5-2 SU and 7-0 ATS surge in the Thunder-Trail Blazers divisional rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY): PORTLAND (+1.5 vs OKC)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last six NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 201-82 SU and 160-122-1 ATS (56.7%) run.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-6.5 vs GSW)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 145-121 SU and 148-115-3 ATS (56.3%) surge.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON (+2.5 at IND), BROOKLYN (+3.5 at NOP), ORLANDO (-3.5 at UTA)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #3:
NBA road favorites winning 36% of their games or less are on an impressive surge of 107-45 SU and 91-60-1 ATS (60.3%).
System Match (PLAY): ORLANDO (-3.5 at UTA)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 150-128 (54%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 279-236 (54.2%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 373-310 (54.6%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – SAS-CHI (spread CHI +15.5, o/u at 238.5), LAL-MIL (spread MIL +14.5, o/u at 228.5)

The following handicapping information details betting systems for divisional games.

Eastern Atlantic Division Betting System #1:
In Eastern Atlantic divisional games, single-digit favorites have gone 109-46 SU and 90-72-3 ATS (55.6%) since the start of the 2022-23 season.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-5.5 at TOR)

Western Northwest Division Betting System #1:
In Western Northwest divisional games, home underdogs are on a 21-25 SU and 33-13 ATS (71.7%) run since early November 2024.
System Match (PLAY): PORTLAND (+1.5 vs OKC)

Western Northwest Division Betting System #2:
In Western Northwest divisional games, teams playing a third straight home game have their totals go Over at a 34-16 (68%) rate in the last 50 instances.
System Match (PLAY OVER): OKC-POR (o/u at 225.5)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last six seasons unless noted.

Allowing 135+ points in a game is a sign of trouble
NBA teams off of a game in which they allowed 135+ points and are now favored have gone 206-119 SU but 149-172-4 ATS (46.4%) in the follow-up contest over the last eight seasons. Included among this is a 121-154 ATS (44%) mark when not playing the next day.
System Match (FADE): NEW ORLEANS (-3.5 vs BKN)

Large favorites off a solid defensive win
NBA teams off a win where they allowed <= 105 points and are now large favorites (-11 or more) in the next contest have had their totals go Over at a 201-142-1 (58.6%) rate since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY OVER): SAS-CHI (o/u at 238.5)

Favorites flush low scoring totals quickly
NBA teams that come off a game in which they scored 90 points or fewer have responded well when favored in the next outing, going 170-63 SU and 136-95-2 ATS (58.9%) in their last 233 tries.
System Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (-3.5 vs BKN)

Rout games can be significant
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 54-84-1 ATS (39.1%) in their last 139 divisional contests.
System Match (FADE ATS): PORTLAND (+1.5 vs OKC)

Divisional upsets can create urgency
NBA teams that lose as favorites to divisional opponents have bounced back well when facing another divisional foe, going 119-78 SU and 110-84-3 ATS (56.7%) in that follow-up try over the last six seasons.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-1.5 at POR)

Teams not making many free throws bounce back well
NBA teams that come off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing, and are on a 206-182 SU and 214-164-10 ATS (56.6%) run.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-5.5 at TOR)

Massive rebounding differentials
NBA teams that had a -15 or worse rebounding differential have struggled to tighten up in a back-to-back situation, going Over the total at a 117-82 (58.8%) rate since 2021, including 62-39 (61.4%) to the Over in the last 101.
System Match (PLAY OVER): LAL-MIL (o/u at 228.5)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #2:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5 points or more, going 113-25 SU and 76-59-3 ATS (56.3%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN ANTONIO (-15.5 at CHI), LA LAKERS (-14.5 at MIL)

NBA Streak Betting System #5:
Teams having won their last five games or more but are playing as underdogs against elite teams with win pct >= 65% have seen their totals go Under at a 40-20-1 (66.7%) rate since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): GSW-HOU (o/u at 220.5)

NBA Streak Betting System #7:
Teams having won their last four games and playing on a back-to-back as favorites of 4 points or more versus below-.500 teams are 56-13 SU and 42-27 ATS (60.9%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-4.5 vs CLE)

NBA Streak Betting System #10:
Teams who have lost at least their last four games and are playing their fourth straight road game have been bad, going 11-37 SU and 19-28-1 ATS (40.4%) against conference opponents since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+2.5 at IND)

NBA Streak Betting System #14:
When teams on alternate streaks of at least 5 games go head-to-head, the teams on the losing streaks have gone 9-28 SU but 27-10 ATS (73%) when set as double-digit underdogs since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO (+15.5 vs SAS), MILWAUKEE (+14.5 vs LAL)

NBA Streak Betting System #15:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of 7 games or more become play against teams in general, going 352-394-4 ATS (47.2%) in the next outing since 2020.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN ANTONIO (-15.5 at CHI), CHICAGO (+15.5 vs SAS), MILWAUKEE (+14.5 vs LAL), UTAH (+3.5 vs ORL), GOLDEN STATE (+6.5 at HOU)

NBA Streak Betting System #16:
Teams reaching an eight-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 89-114-1 ATS (43.8%) in the next game, including 45-58 ATS (43.7%) on the road over the last five seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN ANTONIO (-15.5 at CHI), GOLDEN STATE (+6.5 at HOU)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. We built these pages using the data DraftKings so graciously provides, detailing breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on VSiN.com on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data, developed over the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 245-212 ATS (53.6%) over the last four seasons, good for +11.8 units of profit and an ROI of 2.6%. This is fairly a profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA, NEW ORLEANS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 993-912 ATS (52.1%) over the last four seasons. This has produced -10.2 units and an ROI of -0.5%. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN ANTONIO, DENVER, LA LAKERS, GOLDEN STATE

DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last four seasons, that group produced a 168-148 ATS record (53.2%). This has netted +5.2 units and an ROI of 1.6%. As a general rule, most bettors tend to bet favorites.
System Match (PLAY): PORTLAND

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 581-532 ATS record (52.2%), going for -4.2 units of profit and an ROI of -0.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA, DENVER, PORTLAND

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning number of bets. When 70% or more of the number of bets has been on a home side of an ATS wager since January 2023, this “super” majority group has gone just 119-159 ATS (42.8%), well below the overall performance of all majorities. This has resulted in a net loss of -55.9 units for an ROI of -20.1%.
System Match (FADE): NEW YORK

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last three seasons, DK supermajority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 559-493 ATS (53.1%). This simple angle has produced +16.7 units of profit and an ROI of +1.6%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW ORLEANS, SAN ANTONIO, LA LAKERS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 3+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 695-618 ATS record, good for 52.9%. This is about a 3% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +15.2 units of profit and an ROI of +1.2%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA, NEW YORK, DENVER, GOLDEN STATE

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. When any majority number has favored the Under option over the last four seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 568-472, good for 54.6%, +48.9 units, and an ROI of +4.7% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): WSH-IND, CLE-NYK, BOS-TOR, BKN-NOP, SAS-CHI, DEN-MEM, OKC-POR

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a bit over 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 495-429 (53.6%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – ORL-UTA
UNDER – BOS-TOR

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising the total off its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 225-176 (56.1%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap. This has been a very profitable angle in terms of ROI, producing +31.4 units of profit for +7.8%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): CLE-NYK, BOS-TOR, SAS-CHI, DEN-MEM, OKC-POR

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. UTAH +3.5 (+1.9)
2. MILWAUKEE +14.5 (+1.7)
3. MEMPHIS +3.5 (+1.5)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BOSTON -5.5 (+1.3)
2. NEW ORLEANS -3.5 (+1.0)
3. NEW YORK -4.5 (+0.5)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MEMPHIS +3.5 (+5.6)
2. MILWAUKEE +14.5 (+5.4)
3. PORTLAND +1.5 (+5.1)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAN ANTONIO -15.5 (+2.3)
2. HOUSTON -6.5 (+1.4)
3. NEW YORK -4.5 (+0.1)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAS-CHI OVER 238.5 (+3.8)
2. BOS-TOR OVER 216.5 (+0.8)
3. OKC-POR OVER 225.5 (+0.3)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CLE-NYK UNDER 222.5 (-1.9)
2. ORL-UTA UNDER 214.5 (-1.0)
3. BKN-NOP UNDER 229.5 (-0.8)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MILWAUKEE +14.5 (+2.6)
2. UTAH +3.5 (+1.9)
3. GOLDEN STATE +6.5 (+1.6)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW YORK -4.5 (+1.6)
2. BOSTON -5.5 (+1.5)
3. INDIANA -2.5 (+1.0)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GSW-HOU OVER 220.5 (+4.2)
2. BOS-TOR OVER 216.5 (+3.9)
3. WSH-IND OVER 227.5 (+1.4)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DEN-MEM UNDER 230.5 (-5.2)
2. CLE-NYK UNDER 222.5 (-1.5)

RELATED ARTICLESMORE FROM AUTHOR