The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Wednesday, November 19, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 121-82 SU and 123-77-3 ATS (61.5%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): CHARLOTTE (-1.5 at IND) 

* NBA teams playing on road in 4th in 10+ Days scenario are 25-9 Under the total vs. teams in 4th Straight Home games over the last two seasons
System Match (PLAY UNDER): WSH-MIN (o/u at 238.5) 

* NBA teams that come off a game in which they lost as home favorites flush that result quickly when next a road favorite, going 158-72 SU and 131-95-4 ATS (58%) (sub-system: 75-24 SU and 62-33-4 ATS (65.3%) when favored by 4 points or more versus intraconference foes) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): DENVER (-14.5 at NOP)

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures. 

* CHARLOTTE is 136-99 Under the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since Mar 2021
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CHA-IND (o/u at 237.5) 

* NBA teams playing on road in 3rd in 8+ Days scenario are 15-35 SU and 16-30-4 ATS vs. teams in 4th in 6 Days games over the last three seasons
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+16.5 at MIN)

* NBA teams playing on the road in 4th in 10+ Days scenario are 25-9 Under the total vs. teams in 4th Straight Home games over the last two seasons
* NBA teams playing at home in One Day Rest scenario are 61-25 Under the total vs. teams in 4th in 10+ Days games over the last two seasons
Systems Match (PLAY UNDER): WSH-MIN (o/u at 238.5) 

* NBA teams playing at home in One Day Rest scenario were 81-52 Over the total vs. teams in 4th Straight Road games since the start of last Season
* MIAMI is 20-7 OVER the total playing at home in the One Day Rest scenario since Jan 2025
System/Trend Match (PLAY OVER): GSW-MIA (o/u at 233.5) 

* OKLAHOMA CITY is 35-5 SU and 32-7-1 ATS playing at home in the One Day Rest scenario since Mar 2024
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-18.5 vs SAC)

* NBA teams playing on road in OneDayRest scenario were 48-37 SU and 46-38 ATS vs. teams in back-to-back home games since start of last season
* PORTLAND is 23-25 SU but 32-14 ATS playing in 3rd in 4 Days games since Oct 2023
System/Trend Match: 1 PLAY of CHICAGO, 1 PLAY OF PORTLAND 

* PORTLAND is 63-36 Under the total playing in 3rd in 4 Days games since Apr 2021
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CHI-POR (o/u at 244.5) 

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games: 

(501) CHARLOTTE (4-10) at (502) INDIANA (1-13)
* CHARLOTTE is 4-3 SU and 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven trips to Indiana
Trend Match (PLAY): CHARLOTTE (-1.5 at IND) 

(503) TORONTO (9-5) at (504) PHILADELPHIA (8-5)
* Over the total is 8-2 in the last 10 of the TOR-PHI divisional rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): TOR-PHI (o/u at 233.5) 

(505) GOLDEN STATE (9-7) at (506) MIAMI (8-6)
* MIAMI is 10-4 ATS versus cross-country foe Golden State since 2019
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-6.5 vs GSW) 

(507) HOUSTON (9-3) at (508) CLEVELAND (10-5)
* Home teams are 10-3 ATS in the last 13 of the HOU-CLE non-conference series
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (+1.5 vs HOU)

(509) SACRAMENTO (3-11) at (510) OKLAHOMA CITY (14-1)
* Favorites are on an extended 16-2 SU and 14-3-1 ATS run in the SAC-OKC set
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-18.5 vs SAC) 

(511) WASHINGTON (1-12) at (512) MINNESOTA (9-5)
* WASHINGTON has been a covering machine versus Minnesota recently, going 10-1 ATS in their last 11 head-to-head games
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+16.5 at MIN) 

(513) DENVER (10-3) at (514) NEW ORLEANS (2-12)
* Home teams have gone 7-1 SU and 8-0 ATS in the DEN-NOP series since start of the 2023-24 season
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (+14.5 vs NOP) 

(515) NEW YORK (8-5) at (516) DALLAS (4-11)
* Underdogs are on an extended 9-4 SU and 12-1 ATS run in the Knicks-Mavericks non-conference series at Dallas sincethe  start of the 2012-13 season
Trend Match (PLAY): DALLAS (+5.5 vs NYK) 

(517) CHICAGO (7-6) at (518) PORTLAND (6-8)
* Under the total is 5-1 in the last six meetings between Chicago and Portland at the Moda Center
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CHI-POR (o/u at 244.5)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 121-82 SU and 123-77-3 ATS (61.5%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): CHARLOTTE (-1.5 at IND)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:
Double-digit NBA road favorites winning 36% of their games or less are on an impressive surge of 86-34 SU and 73-46-1 ATS (61.3%).
System Match (PLAY): CHARLOTTE (-1.5 at IND)

NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 118-96 (55.1%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 229-183 (55.6%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 306-233 (56.8%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): SAC-OKC (spread -18.5, total 232.5), WSH-MIN (spread -16.5, total 238.5), DEN-NOP (spread +14.5, total 234.5)

The following handicapping information details betting systems for divisional games. 

Eastern Atlantic Division Betting System #2:
In Eastern Atlantic divisional games, home underdogs of 5 points or less have gone 13-36 SU and 16-31-2 ATS (34%) since late-April 2021.
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (+1.5 vs TOR)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted.

Road favorites bounce back after losing as home favorite
NBA teams that come off a game in which they lost as home favorites flush that result quickly when next a road favorite, going 158-72 SU and 131-95-4 ATS (58%) (sub-system: 75-24 SU and 62-33-4 ATS (65.3%) when favored by 4 points or more versus intraconference foes) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): DENVER (-14.5 at NOP) 

Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 283-150 SU but just 182-238-13 ATS (43.3%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TORONTO (-1.5 at PHI), MIAMI (-6.5 vs GSW) 

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 347-301 (53.5%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CHA-IND (o/u at 237.5) 

High TO games can be significant
NBA teams that committed 20+ turnovers in the previous game have done well in expected-tight matchups (within -4 to +4 line range) in the follow-up game, going 70-54 SU and 72-51-1 ATS (58.5%) in their last 124 tries.
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA (+1.5 vs CHA) 

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NBA Streak Betting System #1:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a risky bet when playing as double-digit home favorites, going 133-25 SU but 69-86-3 ATS (44.5%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE ATS): OKLAHOMA CITY (-18.5 vs SAC) 

NBA Streak Betting System #13:
When teams on alternate streaks of at least 4 games go head-to-head, the teams on the losing streaks have gone 36-81 SU but 63-54 ATS (53.8%) over the last five seasons.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): SACRAMENTO (+18.5 at OKC) 

NBA Streak Betting System #14:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of 7 games or more become play against teams in general, going 264-315-4 ATS (45.6%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of 7 games or more have been terrible in road games, going 32-139 SU and 73-92-6 ATS (44.2%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): INDIANA (+1.5 vs CHA), WASHINGTON (+16.5 at MIN) 

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.

To summarize the findings from the full 2024-25 season, the sample contained 1321 games, and for the most part, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while both struggled on money lines. The full season performance by the majority handle on totals last year in the NBA was better than any other sport I have covered. In fact, these were the results: 

–  Majority handle on point spreads: 660-614 ATS (51.8%), -15.4 units – ROI: -1.2%
–  Majority number of bets on point spreads: 618-645 ATS (48.9%), -91.5 units – ROI: -7.2%
–  Majority handle on money lines: 842-458 (64.8%). -123.18 units – ROI: -9.5%
–  Majority number of bets on money lines: 886-421 (67.8%). -137.95 units – ROI: -10.6%
–  Majority handle on totals: 708-594 (54.4%). +54.6 units – ROI: +4.2%
–  Majority number of bets on totals: 670-621 (51.9%), -13.1 units – ROI: -1% 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 748-665 ATS (52.9%) over the last three seasons. This has produced a profit of +16.5 units and an ROI of 1.2%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHARLOTTE, TORONTO, HOUSTON, DENVER, NEW YORK, CHICAGO 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 352-298 ATS record (54.2%), good for +24.2 units of profit and an ROI of 3.7%. This lot of 650 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): HOUSTON, MIAMI, SACRAMENTO

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last three seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 395-348 ATS (53.2%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.2% success rate, they were about 2% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +12.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.6%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): HOUSTON, MIAMI, MINNESOTA, NEW YORK, CHICAGO 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 494-413 ATS record, good for 54.5%. This is over a 3% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +39.7 units of profit and a ROI of 4.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHARLOTTE, DENVER 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher, however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last three seasons, they are just 137-153 ATS, good for 47.2%. This is over a 4% drop off compared to the overall majority figures and has resulted in -31.3 units of loss and an ROI of -10.8%.
System Match (FADE): TORONTO 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1252-561 over the last three seasons but for -220.99 units and an ROI of -12.2%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 943-612 but for just -6.38 units and an ROI of -0.4%. This 11.8% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and at least considering ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI ML, OKLAHOMA CITY ML, MINNESOTA ML 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last three seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 434-351, good for 55.3%, +47.9 units, and an ROI of +6.1% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): TOR-PHI, CHI-POR 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 346-301 (53.5%) for +14.9 units and an ROI of +2.3% since January 2023.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): OVER – CHA-IND
UNDER – CHI-POR 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 176-126 (58.3%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap. This has been the most profitable angle of all in terms of ROI, producing +37.4 units of profit for 12.4%.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CHI-POR

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CLEVELAND +1.5 (+3.6)
2. INDIANA +1.5 (+1.3)
3. GOLDEN STATE +6.5 (+1.2) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHICAGO -2.5 (+1.2)
2. NEW YORK -5.5 (+0.7)
3. DENVER -14.5 (+0.6) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DALLAS +5.5 (+1.8)
2. PHILADELPHIA +1.5 (+0.9)
3. CLEVELAND +1.5 (+0.3) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OKLAHOMA CITY -18.5 (+5.9)
2. DENVER -14.5 (+5.8)
3. MINNESOTA -16.5 (+4.7) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GSW-MIA OVER 233.5 (+2.5)
2. CHA-IND OVER 237.5 (+1.3)
3. TOR-PHI OVER 233.5 (+0.4) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NYK-DAL UNDER 231.5 (-1.3)
2. SAC-OKC UNDER 232.5 (-1.0)
3. DEN-NOP UNDER 233.5 (-0.6) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CLEVELAND +1.5 (+2.8)
2. INDIANA +1.5 (+0.7)
3. PHILADELPHIA +1.5 (+0.4) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHICAGO -2.5 (+1.6)
2. OKLAHOMA CITY -18.5 (+1.5)
3. NEW YORK -5.5 (+1.0) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: GSW-MIA OVER 233.5 (+4.8) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NYK-DAL UNDER 231.5 (-4.3)
2(tie). CHA-IND UNDER 237.5 (-4.2)
DEN-NOP UNDER 233.5 (-4.2)

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