The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Wednesday, November 5, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* NBA teams playing at home in One Day Rest scenario are 61-24 (71.7%) Under the total vs. teams in 4th in 10+ Days games over the last two seasons
System Match (PLAY UNDER): SAS-LAL (o/u at 227.5) 

* In Western Southwest divisional games, favorites of 3.5 points or more are on a 35-6 SU and 29-12 ATS (70.7%) run since mid-February 2024.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): HOUSTON (-7.5 at MEM), DALLAS (-7.5 vs NOP) 

NBA Streak Betting System #15: Teams reaching an eight-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 63-87-1 ATS (42%) in the next game, including 29-43 ATS (40.3%) on the road over the last five seasons.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-3.5 at POR)

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures. 

* NBA teams playing in back-to-back away games scenario are 15-27 SU and 16-25-1 ATS vs. hosts in 2 Days Rest games over the last two seasons

* PHILADELPHIA is 4-16 SU and 5-15 ATS playing in 3rd in 4 Days games since Nov ’24
* CLEVELAND is 12-1 SU and 11-2 ATS playing in the 2 Days Rest scenario since Dec 2024
System/Trends Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-10.5 vs PHI) 

* NBA teams playing at home in 2 Days Rest scenario were 30-16 Over the total vs. teams in 3rd Straight Road games since the start of last season
System Match (PLAY OVER): PHI-CLE (o/u at 235.5) 

* NBA teams playing at home in One Day Rest scenario were 75-47 Over the total vs. teams in 4th Straight Road games last season
* UTAH is 88-57 Over the total playing in One Day Rest games since Nov 2022
System/Trend Match (PLAY OVER): UTA-DET (o/u at 232.5) 

* BROOKLYN is 7-15 SU but 14-7-1 ATS playing on the road in the One Day Rest scenario since Nov 2024
* INDIANA is 12-15 SU and 6-20-1 ATS playing in 4th in 6 Days games since Nov 2024
Trends Match (PLAY): BROOKLYN (+6.5 at IND)

* HOUSTON is 112-83 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since Dec 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): HOU-MEM (o/u at 232.5) 

* NBA teams playing at home in One Day Rest scenario were 75-47 Over the total vs. teams in 4th Straight Road games last season
System Match (PLAY OVER): MIA-DEN (o/u at 241.5) 

* LA LAKERS are 29-8 SU and 28-9 ATS playing at home in One Day Rest games since Jan 2024
Trend Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS (-2.5 vs SAS) 

* NBA teams playing at home in One Day Rest scenario are 61-24 Under the total vs. teams in 4th in 10+ Days games over the last two seasons

* NBA teams playing in 3rdin4Days scenario are 43-18 Under the total vs. teams in 4th in 10+ Days games over last two seasons
Systems Match (PLAY UNDER): SAS-LAL (o/u at 227.5)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games: 

(513) PHILADELPHIA (5-2) at (514) CLEVELAND (4-3)
* Over the total is 8-1 in the last nine of the PHI-CLE series
Trend Match (PLAY): PHI-CLE (o/u at 235.5) 

(515) BROOKLYN (0-7) at (516) INDIANA (1-6)
* Underdogs are on extended 16-4-1 ATS run in the BKN-IND set
Trend Match (PLAY): BROOKLYN (+6.5 at IND) 

(517) UTAH (3-4) at (518) DETROIT (5-2)
* Road teams are 9-1 ATS in the last 10 of the UTA-DET non-conference series
Trend Match (PLAY): UTAH (+9.5 at DET)

(519) WASHINGTON (1-6) at (520) BOSTON (3-5)
* Under the total converted in all four meetings between Washington and Boston last season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): WSH-BOS (o/u at 232.5)

(521) MINNESOTA (4-3) at (522) NEW YORK (4-3)
* Underdogs are 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS in the last seven of the MIN-NYK non-conference set
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (+3.5 at NYK)

(523) HOUSTON (4-2) at (524) MEMPHIS (3-5)
* Over the total is 4-1 in the last five of the Rockets-Grizzlies divisional rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): HOU-MEM (o/u at 232.5) 

(525) NEW ORLEANS (1-6) at (526) DALLAS (2-5)
* Home teams are 9-3 SU and 8-2-2 ATS in the last 12 of the NOP-DAL divisional series
Trend Match (PLAY): DALLAS (-7.5 vs NOP)

(527) MIAMI (4-3) at (528) DENVER (4-2)
* Road teams are 7-1 ATS in the last eight of the MIA-DEN non-conference series
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+9.5 at DEN) 

(529) OKLAHOMA CITY (8-0) at (530) PORTLAND (4-3)
* Over the total has converted in six of the last seven matchups between OKC and POR in Portland
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): OKC-POR (o/u at 228.5) 

(531) GOLDEN STATE (5-3) at (532) SACRAMENTO (2-5)
* GOLDEN STATE is 6-1 ATS in the last seven trips to Sacramento
Trend Match (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE (+2.5 at SAC) 

(533) SAN ANTONIO (5-1) at (534) LA LAKERS (6-2)
* Over the total is 5-1-1 in the Spurs-Lakers series since the start of the 2023-2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SAS-LAL (o/u at 227.5)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #6:
Divisional single-digit home underdogs winning 38% of their games or less have gone 35-119 SU and 62-87-5 ATS (41.6%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE): MEMPHIS (+7.5 vs HOU) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 116-93 (55.5%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 227-180 (55.8%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 298-228 (56.7%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): PHI-CLE (spread at CLE -10.5, o/u at 235.5), WSH-BOS (spread at BOS -11.5, o/u at 232.5)

The following handicapping information details betting systems for divisional games.

Western Northwest Division Betting System #1:
In Western Northwest divisional games, home underdogs are on a 13-13 SU and 20-6 ATS (76.9%) run since early-November 2024.
System Match (PLAY): PORTLAND (+3.5 vs OKC) 

Western Northwest Division Betting System #2:
In Western Northwest divisional games, teams playing a third straight home game have their totals go Over at a 27-10 (73%) rate in the last 37 instances.
System Match (PLAY OVER): OKC-POR (o/u at 230.5) 

Western Southwest Division Betting System #1:
In Western Southwest divisional games, favorites of 3.5 points or more are on a 35-6 SU and 29-12 ATS (70.7%) run since mid-February 2024.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): HOUSTON (-7.5 at MEM), DALLAS (-7.5 vs NOP) 

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted. 

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 335-287 (53.9%) since 2021.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): BKN-IND (o/u at 232.5), MIN-NYK (o/u at 227.5) 

Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 204-77 SU and 148-130-3 ATS (53.2%) over the last five seasons.
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA (-6.5 vs BKN)

Massive rebounding differentials
NBA teams that had a -15 or worse rebounding differential have struggled to tighten up in a back-to-back situation, going Over the total at a 95-61 (60.9%) rate since 2021, including 40-18 (69%) to the Over in the last 58.
System Match (PLAY OVER): NOP-DAL (o/u at 227.5) 

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #2:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5 points or more, going 78-18 SU and 53-40-3 ATS (57%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-7.5 at MEM) 

NBA Streak Betting System #14:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of 7 games or more become play against teams in general, going 261-310-4 ATS (45.7%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of 7 games or more have been terrible in road games, going 31-136 SU and 71-90-6 ATS (44.1%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY (-3.5 at POR), BROOKLYN (+6.5 at IND) 

NBA Streak Betting System #15:
Teams reaching an eight-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 63-87-1 ATS (42%) in the next game, including 29-43 ATS (40.3%) on the road over the last five seasons.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-3.5 at POR)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

To summarize the findings from the full 2024-25 season, the sample contained 1321 games, and for the most part, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while both struggled on money lines. The full season performance by the majority handle on totals last year in the NBA was better than any other sport I have covered. In fact, these were the results: 

–  Majority handle on point spreads: 660-614 ATS (51.8%), -15.4 units – ROI: -1.2%
–  Majority number of bets on point spreads: 618-645 ATS (48.9%), -91.5 units – ROI: -7.2%
–  Majority handle on money lines: 842-458 (64.8%). -123.18 units – ROI: -9.5%
–  Majority number of bets on money lines: 886-421 (67.8%). -137.95 units – ROI: -10.6%
–  Majority handle on totals: 708-594 (54.4%). +54.6 units – ROI: +4.2%
–  Majority number of bets on totals: 670-621 (51.9%), -13.1 units – ROI: -1%

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 170-136 ATS (55.6%) over the last three seasons, good for +20.4 units of profit and an ROI of 6.7%. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently.  If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW YORK, PORTLAND, SACRAMENTO 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 748-665 ATS (52.9%) over the last three seasons. This has produced a profit of +16.5 units and an ROI of 1.2%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BROOKLYN, HOUSTON 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last three seasons, that group produced a 94-70 ATS record (57.3%).  This has netted +17 units and an ROI of 10.4%. As a general rule, most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 164 games was only about 4.0% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): PORTLAND 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 352-298 ATS record (54.2%), good for +24.2 units of profit and an ROI of 3.7%. This lot of 650 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): UTAH, BROOKLYN, SAN ANTONIO, PORTLAND, SACRAMENTO

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last three seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 395-348 ATS (53.2%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.2% success rate, they were about 2% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +12.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.6%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): NEW YORK, DENVER 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 494-413 ATS record, good for 54.5%. This is over a 3% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +39.7 units of profit and an ROI of 4.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BROOKLYN, BOSTON 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little hig,her however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last three seasons, they are just 137-153 ATS, good for 47.2%. This is over a 4% drop off compared to the overall majority figures and has resulted in -31.3 units of loss and an ROI of -10.8%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON, PORTLAND, SACRAMENTO 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last three seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 434-351, good for 55.3%, +47.9 units, and an ROI of +6.1% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): PHI-CLE, BKN-IND, UTA-DET, SAS-LAL

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 346-301 (53.5%) for +14.9 units and an ROI of +2.3% since January ’23.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): OVER – WSH-BOS
UNDER – MIA-DEN 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 176-126 (58.3%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap. This has been the most profitable angle of all in terms of ROI, producing +37.4 units of profit for 12.4%.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-CLE 

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses). 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GOLDEN STATE +2.5 (+3.1)
2. SAN ANTONIO +2.5 (+2.8)
3. MEMPHIS +7.5 (+1.8) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OKLAHOMA CITY -3.5 (+3.2)
2. NEW YORK -3.5 (+2.5)
3. BOSTON -11.5 (+1.7) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHILADELPHIA +10.5 (+6.3)
2. MIAMI +9.5 (+3.9)
3. MEMPHIS +7.5 (+2.8) 

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SACRAMENTO -2.5 (+0.7)
2. LA LAKERS -2.5 (+0.4) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NOP-DAL OVER 227.5 (+2.9)
2. PHI-CLE OVER 235.5 (+2.6)
3. SAS-LAL OVER 227.5 (+1.6) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIA-DEN UNDER 241.5 (-2.5)
2. BKN-IND UNDER 231.5 (-1.8)
3. OKC-POR UNDER 228.5 (-0.4) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1(tie). GOLDEN STATE +2.5 (+3.5)
SAN ANTONIO +2.5 (+3.5)
3. BROOKLYN +6.5 (+3.3) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW YORK -3.5 (+3.9)
2. CLEVELAND -10.5 (+3.6)
3. OKLAHOMA CITY -3.5 (+3.5)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHI-CLE OVER 235.5 (+3.2)
2. OKC-POR OVER 228.5 (+2.0)
3. HOU-MEM OVER 232.5 (+1.0) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NOP-DAL UNDER 227.5 (-1.7)
2. MIA-DEN UNDER 241.5 (-1.5)
3. GSW-SAC UNDER 226.5 (-0.6)

RELATED ARTICLESMORE FROM AUTHOR