The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games on 10/21. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s NBA games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

* Home teams are 11-0 SU and 9-1-1 ATS in the last 11 of the Pacers-Pelicans non-conference series
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (+3.5 vs IND)

* PORTLAND is 24-13 Over the total (64.9%) in their last 37 games as a favorite
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): PHX-POR (o/u at 231.5)

* When there has been majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last four seasons, that group has produced a 165-132 ATS record (55.6%).  This has netted +19.8 units and an ROI of 6.7%.
System Match (PLAY): BROOKLYN (+1.5 vs CHA)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(507) ATLANTA at (508) ORLANDO
* ATLANTA is 5-1 SU and ATS in the last six meetings with Orlando
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (+2.5 at ORL)

(509) MILWAUKEE at (510) WASHINGTON
* WASHINGTON is 4-5 SU but 7-2 ATS in the last nine games with Milwaukee
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (-4.5 vs MIL)

(511) CHARLOTTE at (512) BROOKLYN
* Under the total is 5-1 in the Hornets-Nets series since the start of 2025
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CHA-BKN (o/u at 219.5)

(513) MINNESOTA at (514) MIAMI
* Favorites are on a 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS surge in the Twolves-Heat  non-conference set
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-1.5 vs MIN)

(515) CHICAGO at (516) TORONTO
* Favorites have won and covered the last five matchups between Chicago and Toronto
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-10.5 vs CHI)

(517) UTAH at (518) MEMPHIS
* Favorites are 8-1 SU and 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine of the Jazz-Grizzlies series
Trend Match (PLAY): MEMPHIS (-2.5 vs UTA)

(519) INDIANA at (520) NEW ORLEANS
* Home teams are 11-0 SU and 9-1-1 ATS in the last 11 of the Pacers-Pelicans non-conference series
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (+3.5 vs IND)

(521) DALLAS at (522) HOUSTON
* DALLAS went 2-2 SU and 4-0 ATS versus Houston last season
Trend Match (PLAY): DALLAS (+10.5 at HOU)

(523) GOLDEN STATE at (524) LA LAKERS
* LA LAKERS are 6-2 SU and ATS versus GSW in the last two seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS (-6.5 vs GSW)

(525) PHOENIX at (526) PORTLAND
* Over the total is 8-1-1 in the last 10 of Suns-Trail Blazers series at the Moda Center
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): PHX-POR (o/u at 231.5)

(527) SACRAMENTO at (528) LA CLIPPERS
* Underdogs are 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS in the last five of the Kings-Clippers divisional rivalry at LAC
Trend Match (PLAY): SACRAMENTO (+4.5 at LAC)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last six NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 145-127 (53.3%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 279-233 (54.5%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 366-297 (55.2%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – CHI-TOR (spread TOR -10.5, o/u at 237.5)
UNDER – DAL-HOU (spread HOU -10.5, o/u at 229.5)

The following handicapping information details betting systems for divisional games.

Western Southwest Division Betting System #1:
In Western Southwest divisional games, favorites of 3.5 points or more are on a 59-15 SU and 45-29 ATS (60.8%) run since mid-February 2024.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-10.5 vs DAL)

The following are 40 top team-specific trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

* PORTLAND is 24-13 Over the total (64.9%) in their last 37 games as a favorite
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): PHX-POR (o/u at 231.5)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS YET THIS SEASON

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:20 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.

Looking back at the DK betting splits data for the full 2025-26 NBA regular season, there were 1,322 games played for the sample. To summarize the overall findings, the side categories are almost identical to the 2024-25 season results, meaning, we should be continuing to see great results for all or most of the systems we’ve continued to track. The total numbers were much worse, indicating the public’s successes in the 2024-25 season may have been a fluke occurrence. In all, four of the six categories showed losses worse than -7% ROI. These were the results:

– Majority handle on point spreads: 653-652 ATS (50%), -64.2 UNITS – ROI: -4.9%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 625-652 ATS (48.9%), -92.2 UNITS – ROI: -7.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 847-458 (64.8%). -131.65 UNITS – ROI: -10.1%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 894-424 (67.8%). -104.3 UNITS – ROI: -7.9%
– Majority handle on totals: 650-643 (50.3%). -57.3 UNITS – ROI: -4.4%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 636-667 (48.8%), -97.7 UNITS – ROI: -7.5%

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 233-199 ATS (53.9%) over the last four seasons, good for +14.1 units of profit and an ROI of 3.3%. This is fairly a profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently.  If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ORLANDO, BROOKLYN

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 972-884 ATS (52.4%) over the last four seasons. This has produced -0.4 units and an ROI of about dead even. Also, this angle lost about 15 units last season. It has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful for keeping bettors afloat. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA, UTAH, DALLAS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last four seasons, that group produced a 165-132 ATS record (55.6%).  This has netted +19.8 units and an ROI of 6.7%. As a general rule, most bettors tend to bet favorites.
System Match (PLAY): BROOKLYN

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last three seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 552-482 ATS (56.3%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 50.8% success rate, they were over 5% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +21.8 units of profit and an ROI of +2.1%.
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 3+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 672-587 ATS record, good for 53.4%. This is about a 3% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +26.3 units of profit and an ROI of +2.1%. Again, not a massive return, but if your goal is more of a long-term steady investment strategy, this is a reasonable system to follow.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON, BROOKLYN, UTAH

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with supermajority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher, however: 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last four seasons, they are just 201-218 ATS, good for 47.9%. This is almost a 3% drop compared to the overall majority figures and has resulted in -38.8 units of loss and an ROI of -9.3%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DALLAS, LA LAKERS, LA CLIPPERS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1723-763 over the last three seasons but for -306.39 units and an ROI of -12.3%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 1321-869 but for just -52.33 units and an ROI of -2.3%. This near 10% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams consistently.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ORLANDO ML, WASHINGTON ML, MIAMI ML, BROOKLYN ML, TORONTO ML, LA LAKERS ML, PORTLAND ML, LA CLIPPERS ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last four seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 546-452, good for 54.7%, +48.8 units, and an ROI of +4.9% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MIL-WSH, CHA-BKN, IND-NO, UTA-MEM, GSW-LAL, PHX-POR, SAC-LAC

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: The average NBA game total since January of ’23 has been a bit over 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 487-421 (53.6%). Both groups have proven winners regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CHA-BKN

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 221-166 (57.1%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap. This has been a very profitable angle in terms of ROI, producing +38.4 units of profit for +9.9%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MIL-WSH, UTA-MEM, GSW-LAL

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: Essentially the opposite of #13 above is the situation when so much money is coming in on majority handle on an Over that DraftKings is forced to move a total higher. When 77% or more majority handle bettors are on Over for a game that has seen its total rise since opening, that group has gone 350-274 (56.1%) since January 2023. This recently discovered angle has produced +48.6 units of profit for +7.8%.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): MIN-MIA, DAL-HOU

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BROOKLYN +1.5 (+3.8)
2. MINNESOTA +1.5 (+2.0)
3. DALLAS +10.5 (+1.2)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LA LAKERS -6.5 (+2.3)
2. WASHINGTON -4.5 (+1.6)
3. PORTLAND -2.5 (+1.0)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BROOKLYN +1.5 (+5.0)
2. DALLAS +10.5 (+3.4)
3. CHICAGO +10.5 (+2.7)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MEMPHIS -2.5 (+5.1)
2. WASHINGTON -4.5 (+1.1)
3. MIAMI -1.5 (+0.1)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. IND-NOP OVER 239.5 (+0.7)
2. CHI-TOR OVER 237.5 (+0.5)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. UTA-MEM UNDER 242.5 (-2.8)
2. GSW-LAL UNDER 234.5 (-2.6)
3. DAL-HOU UNDER 229.5 (-1.4)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BROOKLYN +1.5 (+3.0)
2. UTAH +2.5 (+1.9)
3. ATLANTA +2.5 (+0.7)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LA LAKERS -6.5 (+2.6)
2. TORONTO -10.5 (+2.2)
3. WASHINGTON -4.5 (+0.9)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1(tie). CHI-TOR OVER 237.5 (+1.8)
UTA-MEM OVER 242.5 (+1.8)
3. IND-NOP OVER 239.5 (+1.2)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GSW-LAL UNDER 234.5 (-4.3)
2. CHA-BKN UNDER 219.5 (-1.0)
3. DAL-HOU UNDER 229.5 (-0.8)

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