Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Wednesday, October 29, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* NBA teams coming off an upset win over an intra-conference foe have had problems when facing a non-conference opponent in the next game, going just 152-190 SU and 146-192-4 ATS (43.2%) since late-January 2021.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO (-4.5 vs SAC)
* Underdogs are 14-5 ATS in the HOU-TOR non-conference series since 2016
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+5.5 vs HOU)
* BROOKLYN is 11-1 Over the total playing at home in the One Day Rest scenario since Feb 2025
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): ATL-BKN (o/u at 238.5)
#1 TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen Effective Strength Ratings: ORL-DET UNDER 228.5 (projections have total at 220.8)
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
* TORONTO is 12-11 SU and 16-6 ATS playing at home in the One Day Rest scenario since Oct 2024
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+5.5 vs HOU)
* HOUSTON is 111-82 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since Dec 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): HOU-TOR (o/u at 233.5)
* NBA teams playing on road in 2 Days Rest scenario are 17-4 Under the total vs. teams in 3rd Home in 4 Days games over the last two seasons
System Match (PLAY UNDER): IND-DAL (o/u at 228.5)
* ATLANTA is 118-85 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since Nov 2021
* BROOKLYN is 11-1 Over the total playing at home in the One Day Rest scenario since Feb 2025
Trends Match (PLAY OVER): ATL-BKN (o/u at 238.5)
* ORLANDO is 102-72 Under the total playing in all One Day Rest games since Mar 2022
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): ORL-DET (o/u at 227.5)
* PORTLAND is 22-25 SU but 32-13 ATS playing in 3rd in 4 Days games since Oct 2023
Trend Match (PLAY): PORTLAND (-2.5 at UTA)
* PORTLAND is 63-35 Under the total playing in 3rd in 4 Days games since Apr ’21
* UTAH is 87-55 Over the total playing in One Day Rest games since November 2022
Trends Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in POR-UTA (o/u at 234.5)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #3:
NBA road favorites winning 36% of their games or less are on an impressive surge of 80-32 SU and 68-43-1 ATS (61.3%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): HOUSTON (-5.5 at TOR), ORLANDO (-1.5 at DET), ATLANTA (-8.5 at BKN)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #8:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 114-93 (55.1%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 226-178 (55.9%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 295-226 (56.6%).
System Match (PLAY OVER): NOP-DEN (spread at -12.5, total at 237.5)
NBA Divisional Systems/Trends
The following handicapping information details betting systems for divisional games.
Western Northwest Division Betting System #1:
In Western Northwest divisional games, home underdogs are on a 12-12 SU and 18-6 ATS (75%) run since early-November 2024.
System Match (PLAY): UTAH (+2.5 vs POR)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted.
135 points in a win is a team score to watch for
Teams that won their last game while scoring 135 or more points are on a 254-138 SU but 181-203-8 ATS (47.1%) skid in the follow-up contest when favored.
System Match (FADE): HOUSTON (-5.5 at TOR)
Allowing 135+ points in a game is a sign of trouble
NBA teams off a game in which they allowed 135+ points and are now favored have gone 160-94 SU but 117-133-4 ATS (46.8%) in the follow-up contest over the last seven seasons. Included among this is a 96-117 ATS (45.1%) mark when not playing the next day.
System Match (FADE): ORLANDO (-1.5 at DET)
Early-season large wins lead to Unders
NBA teams who won their previous game by 25+ points have gone Under the total at a 25-10-1 (71.4%) rate in games 2-5 of the season in the last 36 tries.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): CLE-BOS (o/u at 234.5), HOU-TOR (o/u at 232.5)
Rout wins are a warning sign for the next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 304-238 SU but 242-285-15 ATS (45.9%) over the last seven seasons.
System Match (FADE ATS): BOSTON (+3.5 vs CLE)
Upset wins over conference opponents lead to next game stumbles versus non-conference opponents
NBA teams coming off an upset win over an intra-conference foe have had problems when facing a non-conference opponent in the next game, going just 152-190 SU and 146-192-4 ATS (43.2%) since late-January 2021.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO (-4.5 vs SAC)
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 330-279 (54.2%) since 2021.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): CLE-BOS (o/u at 234.5), ORL-DET (o/u at 227.5), POR-UTA (o/u at 234.5)
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 298-318 SU and 275-333-8 ATS (45.2%) in the next game over the last five seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON (-5.5 at TOR), DENVER (-12.5 vs NOP
Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well in the next contest as well, going 163-105 SU and 155-106-7 ATS (59.4%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (+3.5 vs CLE)
High TO games can be significant
NBA teams that committed 20+ turnovers in the previous game have done well in expected-tight matchups (within -4 to +4 line range) in the follow-up game, going 63-46 SU and 65-43-1 ATS (60.2%) in their last 109 tries.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (+1.5 vs ORL)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(551) ORLANDO (1-3) at (552) DETROIT (2-2)
* Favorites are on runs of 9-0 SU and 7-1 ATS in the ORL-DET series
Trend Match (PLAY): ORLANDO (-1.5 at DET)
(553) CLEVELAND (3-1) at (554) BOSTON (1-3)
* Underdogs are on 12-3-1 ATS surge in the Cavs-Celtics series
Trend Match (PLAY): BOSTON (+3.5 vs CLE)
(555) ATLANTA (1-3) at (556) BROOKLYN (0-4)
* BROOKLYN is on an 8-1 ATS run in games versus Atlanta, but did lose last time
Trend Match (PLAY): BROOKLYN (+8.5 vs ATL)
(557) HOUSTON (1-2) at (558) TORONTO (1-3)
* Underdogs are 14-5 ATS in the HOU-TOR non-conference series since 2016
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+5.5 vs HOU)
(559) SACRAMENTO (1-3) at (560) CHICAGO (3-0)
* Road teams have won five straight SU and ATS in the SAC-CHI meetings
Trend Match (PLAY): SACRAMENTO (+4.5 at CHI)
(561) INDIANA (0-3) at (562) DALLAS (1-3)
* Over the total is 10-2 in the last 12 matchups between the Pacers and the Mavericks in Dallas
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): IND-DAL (o/u at 228.5)
(563) PORTLAND (2-2) at (564) UTAH (2-1)
* UTAH has won six straight ATS (4-2 SU) in the divisional rivalry with Portland
Trend Match (PLAY): UTAH (+3.5 vs POR)
(565) NEW ORLEANS (0-3) at (566) DENVER (2-1)
* Home teams are 9-3 SU and 11-1 ATS in the last 12 of the Pelicans-Nuggets series
Trend Match (PLAY): DENVER (-12.5 vs NOP)
(567) LA LAKERS (2-2) at (568) MINNESOTA (2-2)
* Home teams are 8-2 SU and ATS in the last 10 of the LAL-MIN set
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-7.5 vs LAL)
(569) MEMPHIS (2-2) at (570) PHOENIX (1-3)
* Road teams have won seven straight ATS in the MEM-PHX Western Conference series, as well as Memphis being 9-2 ATS in visits to Phoenix since 2019
Trend Match (PLAY): MEMPHIS (-1.5 at PHX)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #10:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on an 83-90 SU but 98-73-3 ATS (57.3%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): BROOKLYN (+8.5 vs ATL)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
To summarize the findings from the full 2024-25 season, the sample contained 1321 games, and for the most part, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while both struggled on money lines. The full season performance by the majority handle on totals last year in the NBA was better than any other sports I have covered. In fact, these were the results:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 660-614 ATS (51.8%), -15.4 units – ROI: -1.2%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 618-645 ATS (48.9%), -91.5 units – ROI: -7.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 842-458 (64.8%). -123.18 units – ROI: -9.5%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 886-421 (67.8%). -137.95 units – ROI: -10.6%
– Majority handle on totals: 708-594 (54.4%). +54.6 units – ROI: +4.2%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 670-621 (51.9%), -13.1 units – ROI: -1%
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 748-665 ATS (52.9%) over the last three seasons. This has produced a profit of +16.5 units and an ROI of 1.2%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): HOUSTON, CLEVELAND, ATLANTA, MEMPHIS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 352-298 ATS record (54.2%), good for +24.2 units of profit and an ROI of 3.7%. This lot of 650 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): ORLANDO
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last three seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 395-348 ATS (53.2%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.2% success rate, they were about 2% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +12.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.6%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): HOUSTON, DALLAS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 494-413 ATS record, good for 54.5%. This is over a 3% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +39.7 units of profit and an ROI of 4.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, ATLANTA, DENVER, MINNESOTA, MEMPHIS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1252-561 over the last three seasons but for -220.99 units and an ROI of -12.2%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 943-612 but for just -6.38 units and an ROI of -0.4%. This 11.8% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and at least considering ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BROOKLYN ML, DENVER ML, MINNESOTA ML
These last three systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number has favored the Under option over the last three seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 434-351, good for 55.3%, +47.9 units, and an ROI of +6.1% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): HOU-TOR, ORL-DET, SAC-CHI
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 346-301 (53.5%) for +14.9 units and an ROI of +2.3% since January 2023.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): OVER – SAC-CHI, NOP-DEN, MEM-PHX
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 176-126 (58.3%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap. This has been the most profitable angle of all in terms of ROI, producing +37.4 units of profit for 12.4%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): HOU-TOR, ORL-DET, SAC-CHI
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BOSTON +3.5 (+2.5)
2. DETROIT +1.5 (+1.7)
3. INDIANA +6.5 (+1.6)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DENVER -12.5 (+1.3)
2. ATLANTA -8.5 (+1.0)
3. PORTLAND -2.5 (+0.8)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BROOKLYN +8.5 (+2.9)
2. BOSTON +3.5 (+1.3)
3. UTAH +2.5 (+0.8)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DALLAS -6.5 (+2.1)
2. DENVER -12.5 (+1.0)
3. HOUSTON -5.5 (+0.6)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: NOP-DEN OVER 238.5 (+0.5)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ORL-DET UNDER 228.5 (-7.7)
2. CLE-BOS UNDER 233.5 (-3.2)
3. HOU-TOR UNDER 233.5 (-2.8)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BOSTON +3.5 (+3.1)
2. LA LAKERS +7.5 (+1.5)
3. DETROIT +1.5 (+1.4)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PORTLAND -2.5 (+1.7)
2. DENVER -12.5 (+1.6)
3. ATLANTA -8.5 (+1.3)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ORL-DET UNDER 228.5 (-8.3)
2. MEM-PHX UNDER 241.5 (-6.8)
3. SAC-CHI UNDER 238.5 (-6.2)
