Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games on 11/13. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s NBA games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Underdogs are 10-2 SU and ATS in the last 12 of the Hawks-Bulls series
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (+6.5 vs ATL)
* Teams having won their last six games and are favored by >= 9 points versus a team averaging 114 PPG or more have gone just 42-10 SU but 19-33 ATS (36.5%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE): SAN ANTONIO (-11.5 vs GSW)
* LA CLIPPERS are 17-5 Over the total playing with 2 Days Rest since December 2024
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): OKC-LAC (o/u at 222.5)
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that’s the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they handle injuries and workloads under schedule pressure.
* NBA teams playing in the One Day Rest game scenario are 20-34 SU and 17-36 ATS vs. teams playing a 3+ Days Rest game over the last four seasons
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO (+6.5 vs ATL)
* NBA teams playing at home in the 2 Days Rest game scenario were 40-17 SU & 36-21 ATS hosting teams playing a 3rd in 4 Days game last season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SACRAMENTO (+9.5 vs POR), LA CLIPPERS (+6.5 vs OKC)
* NBA teams playing at home in the 2 Days Rest game scenario are 36-21 Over the total hosting teams playing a 3rd in 4 Days game over the last season
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): POR-SAC (o/u at 228.5), OKC-LAC (o/u at 222.5)
* NBA teams playing in the 3rd in 4 Days game scenario are 170-250 SU and 191-220 ATS vs. teams playing a 3rd Straight Home game over the last four seasons
System Matches (FADE ALL): UTAH (+15.5 at HOU), PORTLAND (-9.5 at SAC)
* UTAH is 114-84 Over the total playing with One Day Rest since November 2022
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): UTA-HOU (o/u at 219.5)
* NEW ORLEANS is 20-9 Over the total (69%) vs. teams currently winning more than 60% of their games, since the start of last season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MEM-NOP (o/u at 236.5)
* GOLDEN STATE is 135-128 SU but 113-146 ATS playing in One Day Rest games since January 2022
Trend Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (+11.5 at SAS)
* NEW YORK is 155-83 SU and 133-101 ATS playing with One Day Rest since November 2022
* NEW YORK is just 12-10 SU and 6-16 ATS (27.3%) vs. the current lowest scoring teams in the league (scoring <114 PPG), since the start of last season
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of NEW YORK (-8.5 at IND)
* SACRAMENTO is 1-15 SU and 4-12 ATS (25%) at home versus teams currently winning >60% of their games, since the start of last season
Trend Match (FADE): SACRAMENTO (+9.5 vs POR)
* PORTLAND is 27-16 Over the total (62.8%) in their last 43 games as a favorite
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): POR-SAC (o/u at 228.5)
* OKLAHOMA CITY is 186-101 SU and 165-114 ATS playing in the popular One Day Rest scenario since October 2021
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-6.5 at LAC)
* LA CLIPPERS are 17-5 Over the total playing with 2 Days Rest since December 2024
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): OKC-LAC (o/u at 222.5)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for today’s games:
(557) NEW YORK at (558) INDIANA
* Home teams are 4-3 SU and 6-1 ATS in last seven of the Knicks-Pacers series
Trend Match (PLAY): INDIANA (+8.5 vs NYK)
(559) MILWAUKEE at (560) ORLANDO
* Over the total is 6-1 in the last seven of the Bucks-Magic set
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIL-ORL (o/u at 224.5)
(561) ATLANTA at (562) CHICAGO
* Underdogs are 10-2 SU and ATS in the last 12 of the Hawks-Bulls series
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (+6.5 vs ATL)
(563) CLEVELAND at (564) MIAMI
* Over the total is 6-0-1 in the last seven matchups between Cleveland and Miami at the Kaseya Center
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CLE-MIA (o/u at 235.5)
(565) MEMPHIS at (566) NEW ORLEANS
* Over the total is 6-2 in the last eight of the Grizzlies-Pelicans divisional rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MEM-NOP (o/u at 236.5)
(567) UTAH at (568) HOUSTON
* Home teams are 7-3 SU and 9-1 ATS in the last 10 of the Jazz-Rockets set
Trend Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-15.5 vs UTA)
(569) GOLDEN STATE at (570) SAN ANTONIO
* Road teams are on an extended 15-4 SU and 14-5 ATS run in the Warriors-Spurs series
Trend Match (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE (+11.5 at SAS)
(573) OKLAHOMA CITY at (574) LA CLIPPERS
* Favorites are on 12-0 SU and 10-2 ATS run in the Thunder-Clippers series
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-6.5 at LAC)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last six NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #6:
Divisional single-digit home underdogs winning 38% of their games or less have gone 48-138 SU and 81-100-5 ATS (44.8%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE): NEW ORLEANS (+2.5 vs MEM)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #8:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 150-128 (54%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 281-236 (54.4%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 374-310 (54.7%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – UTA-HOU (spread HOU -15.5, o/u at 219.5), GSW-SAS (spread SAS -11.5, o/u at 218.5)
NBA Divisional Systems/Trends
The following handicapping information details betting systems for divisional games.
Western Southwest Division Betting System #1:
In Western Southwest divisional games, favorites of 3.5 points or more are on a 62-18 SU and 47-33 ATS (58.8%) run since mid-February 2024.
System Match (PLAY): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR MEMPHIS at NOP (-2.5 CURRENTLY)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last six seasons unless noted.
Teams losing despite scoring well are dangerous
NBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points offensively have bounced back extremely well in the next outing when installed as underdogs, going 125-84-1 ATS (59.8%) since the start of the 2018-2019 season.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (+6.5 vs ATL)
Road favorites bounce back after losing as home favorite
NBA teams that come off a game in which they lost as home favorites flush that result quickly when next a road favorite, going 191-89 SU and 155-121-4 ATS (56.2%) (sub-system: 95-33 SU and 74-50-4 ATS (59.7%) when favored by 4 points or more versus intraconference foes) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (-6.5 at CHI), NEW YORK (-8.5 at IND)
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 441-375 (54%) since 2021.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MEM-NOP (o/u at 236.5), CLE-MIA (o/u at 235.5)
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 371-375 SU and 340-398-8 ATS (46.1%) in the next game over the last six seasons.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO (+6.5 vs ATL)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #1:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a risky bet when playing as double-digit home favorites, going 168-29 SU but 87-107-3 ATS (44.8%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE ATS): SAN ANTONIO (-11.5 vs GSW)
NBA Streak Betting System #6:
Teams having won their last six games and are favored by >= 9 points versus a team averaging 114 PPG or more have gone just 42-10 SU but 19-33 ATS (36.5%) since the start of the 2020-21 season. Over the total is also 33-19 (63.5%) in these games.
System Match (FADE): SAN ANTONIO (-11.5 vs GSW)
System Match (PLAY OVER): GSW-SAS (o/u at 218.5)
NBA Streak Betting System #9:
Teams who have lost at least their last four games and are facing an opponent on 2+ Days Rest have had their games go Over the total at a 148-113-2 (56.7%) rate since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY OVER): ATL-CHI (o/u at 245.5)
NBA Streak Betting System #12:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 126-159 SU but 157-126-3 ATS (55.5%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (+2.5 vs MEM)
NBA Streak Betting System #15:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of 7 games or more become play against teams in general, going 354-397-4 ATS (47.1%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of 7 games or more have been bad in road games, going 45-180 SU and 98-121-6 ATS (44.7%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE (+8.5 at ORL), CHICAGO (+6.5 vs ATL), UTAH (+15.5 at HOU), SAN ANTONIO (-11.5 vs GSW)
NBA Streak Betting System #16:
Teams reaching an eight-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 89-116-1 ATS (43.4%) in the next game.
System Match (FADE): SAN ANTONIO (-11.5 vs GSW)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These betting splits can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 995-917 ATS (52%) over the last four seasons. This has produced -13.7 units and a ROI of -0.7%. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW YORK, ATLANTA, UTAH, PORTLAND, OKLAHOMA CITY
DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last four seasons, that group produced a 169-149 ATS record (53.1%). This has netted +5.1 units and an ROI of 1.6%. As a general rule, most bettors tend to bet favorites.
System Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 584-534 ATS record (52.2%), going for -3.4 units of profit and an ROI of -0.3%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE, UTAH, NEW ORLEANS, GOLDEN STATE
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 3+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 696-620 ATS record, good for 52.9%. This is about a 3% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +14 units of profit and an ROI of +1.1%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA, UTAH, PORTLAND, OKLAHOMA CITY
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1779-796 over the last three seasons but for -304.65 units and an ROI of -11.8%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 1370-899 but for just -40.09 units and an ROI of -1.8%. This 10%+ disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams consistently.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ORLANDO ML, MIAMI ML, HOUSTON ML, SAN ANTONIO ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last four seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 568-474, good for 54.5%, +46.7 units, and an ROI of +4.5% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): NYK-IND, MEM-NOP, ATL-CHI, CLE-MIA, POR-SAC
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a bit over 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 497-431 (53.6%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 490-447 (52.3%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – GSW-SAS
UNDER – NYK-IND
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising the total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 225-176 (56.1%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap. This has been a very profitable angle in terms of ROI, producing +31.4 units of profit for +7.8%.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): MEM-NOP
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: Essentially, the opposite of #13 above is the situation when so much money is coming in on majority handle on an Over that DraftKings is forced to move a total higher. When 77% or more majority handle bettors are on Over for a game that has seen its total rise since opening, that group has gone 358-284 (55.8%) since January 2023. This recently discovered and best units angle has produced +45.6 units of profit for +7.1%.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): MIL-ORL, UTA-HOU
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1(tie). INDIANA +8.5 (+0.9)
GOLDEN STATE +11.5 (+0.9)
3. CLEVELAND +2.5 (+0.7)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOUSTON -15.5 (+3.9)
2. PORTLAND -9.5 (+3.0)
3. OKLAHOMA CITY -6.5 (+0.9)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GOLDEN STATE +11.5 (+6.3)
2. CHICAGO +6.5 (+1.4)
3. CLEVELAND +2.5 (+1.1)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOUSTON -15.5 (+1.6)
2. PORTLAND -9.5 (+1.0)
3. ORLANDO -8.5 (+0.8)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. POR-SAC OVER 228.5 (+1.2)
2. ATL-CHI OVER 246.5 (+0.8)
3. GSW-SAS OVER 217.5 (+0.6)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIL-ORL UNDER 224.5 (-3.3)
2. NYK-IND UNDER 219.5 (-3.1)
3. UTA-HOU UNDER 220.5 (-0.8)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1(tie). INDIANA +8.5 (+1.4)
CLEVELAND +2.5 (+1.4)
3. GOLDEN STATE +11.5 (+0.7)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOUSTON -15.5 (+4.0)
2. PORTLAND -9.5 (+3.7)
3. OKLAHOMA CITY -6.5 (+0.5)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CLE-MIA OVER 235.5 (+4.4)
2. POR-SAC OVER 228.5 (+2.4)
3. GSW-SAS OVER 217.5 (+0.3)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MEM-NOP UNDER 237.5 (-4.3)
2. NYK-IND UNDER 219.5 (-3.7)
3. MIL-ORL UNDER 224.5 (-1.7)
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