On Monday, October 26, we learned that Oklahoma City’s road to a championship just got a lot tougher. Jalen Williams needs surgery to repair a fractured left fibula and dislocated left ankle, while Cason Wallace will undergo surgery for a torn labrum in his left shoulder. Both are facing extended absences, with exact return timelines to come after their procedures. However, it sure sounds like both will miss the remainder of the 2026-27 season, and losing two starters at once is a brutal hit to a team with championship hopes.
To make matters worse, Alex Caruso is also dealing with a right ankle sprain. That injury appears less serious, but it’s another blow to a perimeter rotation that suddenly looks a whole lot thinner. I’m not writing off the Thunder, but these injuries change the equation — and create a few opportunities worth exploring in the futures market.
What does this mean for Oklahoma City?
Oklahoma City is still the betting favorite to win the NBA title at Circa Sports, but several other shops have moved San Antonio to the top of the board. Frankly, it’s hard to blame them.
The last time Williams was healthy, he put up 21.6 points, 5.3 rebounds, 5.1 assists, and 1.6 steals per game. Williams is a true three-level scorer and a high-level, multipositional defender, and it’s pretty clear he’s the Thunder’s best player not named Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Meanwhile, Wallace has emerged as one of the better two-way guards in basketball, which is why Oklahoma City general manager Sam Presti gave him $139 million in the offseason.
Without Williams, the Thunder get a little smaller. Without Wallace, Oklahoma City’s backcourt leans a little more offense-first. These injuries do a number on the overall identity of the 2024-25 NBA champions.
The Thunder are, however, still very much alive in the title race. This undoubtedly makes things tougher, but a team with Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren, Caruso, Isaiah Hartenstein, Ajay Mitchell, and Jared McCain will always have a shot. Mark Daigneault also has some young pieces to develop as the season progresses — like Aday Mara, Bennett Stirtz, Thomas Sorber, and Nikola Topic — and Presti has the ability to make a trade at the deadline.
How does the title picture look now?
Oklahoma City is far from dead, but these injuries drop the Thunder into the same bucket as the other teams with championship hopes. All of those teams sit below San Antonio, but the Spurs aren’t a sure thing themselves.
San Antonio is currently attempting to do right by its trio of talented guards, starting De’Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, and Dylan Harper together. The issue is that lineups with those three are only outscoring opponents by 1.3 points per 100 possessions, which isn’t good enough — especially considering those lineups feature Victor Wembanyama.
Last year, we saw what bringing one of those guards off the bench meant. Head coach Mitch Johnson was able to piece together lineups that made more sense, and the team nearly won the NBA title. This year, Johnson has even more talent to work with, as San Antonio added veteran bucket-getter Tobias Harris to the forward rotation. But as long as the Spurs insist on avoiding uncomfortable conversations, this team is a little shakier than it was a year ago. On top of that, the late-game struggles we saw from San Antonio in the postseason will have plenty of teams believing the Spurs can be ousted again.
All of that means we could be looking at a wide-open race. Sure, the Spurs are leading it, but a ton of teams should feel they have a chance. That includes some of the Western Conference afterthoughts, like the Rockets, Timberwolves, and Lakers. It also includes most of the Eastern Conference, with that list starting with the defending champion Knicks.
Are there any futures to be made now?
The injuries to Oklahoma City should have you considering some futures. I already gave out Houston to win the NBA title at 60-1 earlier in the year, and I also have the Rockets to finish fifth or better in the Western Conference. So, I’m not running to add more on Houston, but anyone who doesn’t have a piece of them might want to get in.
The Rockets are 4-0, they’re scoring 122.1 points per 100 possessions — third in the NBA — and they have a neutral-court victory over the Spurs. Everything about Houston looks better with Fred VanVleet back in the mix, and everyone on the roster looks to have taken the offseason very seriously. With their ability to play both ends of the floor, the Rockets should be feeling as good as anyone about the sudden change in the league’s landscape.
With that out of the way, let’s get into the new plays I’ve made:
Timberwolves Most Regular Season Wins (17-1) & Timberwolves To Win NBA Title (17-1): Even after last night’s loss to Cleveland, the Timberwolves are fifth in the NBA in points per 100 possessions (119.4) and first in points allowed per 100 possessions (99.7). The acquisition of LaMelo Ball has done exactly what Minnesota president of basketball operations Tim Connelly thought it would: unlock Anthony Edwards.
Edwards is averaging 33.3 points per game on 48.1/40.0/75.0 shooting splits. What’s even more impressive is that the Timberwolves haven’t lost their fire on defense. Their frontcourt of Jaden McDaniels, Jonathan Kuminga, and Rudy Gobert has been physical and relentless, and Edwards and Ball are pulling their own weight on the perimeter. This team looks like a true contender, so I’m not going to get caught waiting too long to buy in.
Pistons Most Regular Season Wins (30-1 – 0.5 units): It’s pretty clear I was somewhat wrong about the Pistons. We’re only three games into the year, but I feel as though Detroit will easily avoid the Play-In Tournament and compete for the top seed in the Eastern Conference.
Right now, the Pistons are scoring 120.7 points per 100 possessions, good for fourth in the NBA. They also remain an elite defensive team, giving up only 106.9 points per 100 possessions.
Of course, I still feel pretty strongly that Detroit is missing a piece. If the Pistons can find a way to grab someone like Tyler Herro or Zach LaVine, that could vault them into true title contention. But even without that piece, I think there’s a shot Detroit finishes atop the Eastern Conference again. I also think the Pistons can flirt with the best record in the league.
The Thunder had the highest win total of any team heading into this season, and they’re likely not going to have the regular-season success we all expected. That’s why the most regular-season wins market is interesting to me. I already have the Celtics to finish with the league’s best record from before the season, and I feel good about adding Minnesota and Detroit now.
The Pistons were a 60-win team a year ago, and flirting with that number again should mean flirting with the top mark in the league. Let’s just hope Jalen Duren returns from his injury soon.
