Kennesaw State vs. Middle Tennessee
Conference USA continues to do us a great service by playing midweek games to give football fans something to watch and wager on. After two Tuesday night tilts, the conference stays in the spotlight with two more on Wednesday, as we’ll start with Kennesaw State vs. Middle Tennessee and then head to the desert for Jacksonville State vs. New Mexico State.
The Owls are winless conference play and bowl eligibility is a long shot, so they don’t have much on the line, but both the Blue Raiders and Aggies are 2-1 in league action. Jacksonville State is 3-0 and will not play Liberty during the regular season, so the Gamecocks control their own destiny and could move a big step further with a win in Las Cruces. Even though that’s the bigger game, my stronger opinion comes from the other one.
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Kennesaw State at Middle Tennessee (-3, 51.5) Prediction
Wednesday, 7 p.m. ET (CBSSN)
The Owls opened the season with a 47-0 win over West Georgia and haven’t won since. Six straight defeats have put the Owls on the brink of bowl elimination, but they are getting into a softer part of the schedule. They’ve already played two Sun Belt opponents, Tennessee, and the two best teams in C-USA.
So, this is a step down in class in a lot of ways to take on MTSU. However, I’m not sure that Kennesaw State will be able to do enough on offense. Against conference opponents, the Owls have managed just 5.33 yards per play. That’s even fewer than they had in non-conference action. QB Rickie Collins, who transferred from Syracuse, is the team’s leading rusher with just 4.1 yards per carry on 72 tries. He’s completed 68.6% of his passes, but has thrown more interceptions (5) than touchdowns (4).
Defensively, Kennesaw State held West Georgia to 3.14 YPP, but opponents have averaged 6.13 YPP in their six losses. On the whole, the Owls are 128th in net points per drive per BCFToys and a big reason why is because they are 117th in defensive points per drive allowed. They are also 117th as a team in net yards per play differential. Perhaps most notably, they are 133rd in net success rate, as they have one of the nation’s worst defenses in that department. In other words, opponents are staying on schedule with down and distance.
Things are going better in Murfreesboro, where MTSU has won two in a row and sits at 4-3 through seven games. Aside from a total no-show against Kansas, this has been a competitive team on a weekly basis. This line is a bit scary, in that the Blue Raiders have won each of their last two games by exactly three points, but this is a step back in class.
This has actually been a decent offense with 5.83 YPP overall and 6.39 YPP in conference games. Unfortunately, the offense has forgotten how to execute on third down. Only UTEP is worse in third-down conversion rate, with the Blue Raiders at 25.64%. They’re only 9-for-33 in conference play, yet they’ve still been able to win two of three.
MTSU’s defense has been a disaster, which is a bad sign for head coach Derek Mason, a defensive coordinator by trade. The Blue Raiders have allowed nearly seven yards per play to conference foes. But, this is not an explosive Kennesaw State team. Even with a 55-0 blowout to their names, the Blue Raiders are 97th in net points per drive, 89th in net yards per play, and 90th in net success rate.
All of those numbers are quite a bit better than what Kennesaw State has to offer. This should be an opportunity for the MTSU defense to show some more resistance.
Pick: Middle Tennessee -3
Jacksonville State (-3, 49.5) at New Mexico State
Wednesday, 8 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
The Gamecocks started the season getting pummeled by North Dakota State, but their lone loss since came against Ohio in a two-point defeat on the road. But, the Gamecocks also have three wins by four or fewer points, including each of the last two games. Not having stud running back Cam Cook has been an issue this season, as QB Caden Creel has 105 of the team’s 234 rush attempts. He’s run for 4.8 yards per carry, a big drop from last season’s 5.9 yards per pop.
Creel’s been a pretty effective passer with a 12/6 TD/INT ratio and a 67.2% completion rate. He’s certainly been better than the disastrous QB room for the Aggies, where Trey Hedden has a 5/6 TD/INT ratio with a 52.4% completion rate and Adam Damante has a 6/3 TD/INT ratio, but he hasn’t created a lot of explosive plays.
Neither Aggie QB can run at all, as they’ve combined for 29 carries for -24 yards, so that should be a big positive for the Gamecocks. On the plus side, NMSU has maybe the conference’s best defense outside of Liberty, holding opponents to 4.26 YPP in conference action. Conversely, Jacksonville State has allowed 5.78 YPP.
No play from me here, as the Gamecocks clearly have the better offense, but the Aggies have the better defense. It’s a pretty good trip to Las Cruces for this one and maybe that helps NMSU here as well.
Check out picks from VSiN hosts and guests on this game and all of the Week 9 games on our Pro Picks Page.
