On Wednesday, June 11th, the Indiana Pacers host the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 3 of the 2024-25 NBA Finals. Keep reading for odds, predictions and best bets for this exciting showdown, but make sure you also check out the VSiN NBA Playoffs Betting Hub for the rest of our written content. We have a ton of people breaking down the action. We’re also talking ball regularly on our live programming, so now is a great time to be a VSiN subscriber.
How To Watch Thunder vs. Pacers – Game 3
Where: Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana
When: 8:30 pm ET on Wednesday, June 11th
Channel: ABC
Thunder vs. Pacers Odds – Game 3
(Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook and accurate as of Monday, June 9th at 7:30 pm ET)
Moneyline: Thunder -218, Pacers +180
Spread: Thunder -5.5 (-108), Pacers +5.5 (-112)
Total: Over 228 (-112), Under 228 (-108)
Thunder vs. Pacers Prediction – Game 3
Game 3s haven’t been kind to the Pacers this postseason. In the series against Milwaukee, Indiana lost 117-101 in a Game 3 at Fiserv Forum. Then, after taking a 2-0 lead over Cleveland in the second round, the Cavaliers went into Gainbridge Fieldhouse and won 126-104. Indiana also lost 106-100 against New York in a Game 3 in Indianapolis in the Eastern Conference Finals. Well, will that trend continue? I’m not sure. While it’s concerning the Pacers lost the third game in all three of their previous series, the team also had 2-0 leads in all of them. So, they weren’t exactly in desperation mode, and their opponents needed those games. With this series being tied at 1-1, the situation is completely different.
Indiana is going to need to win one of the next two games in order to win this series, so there should be a different level of motivation coming into this Game 3 than any of the previous ones. And I have been saying since the start of this series that the Pacers would get one of the two games at home. With that in mind, I like the idea of going into Game 3 with the plan of taking Indiana on the spread and moneyline in both home games. If the Pacers don’t win Game 3, I’ll attack it again in Game 4. If they do, I can reevaluate heading into that fourth game.
The Thunder are a better basketball team than the Pacers, and it might not be very close. However, Oklahoma City is just 4-3 with a net rating of -6.2 in seven road games in these playoffs. Meanwhile, Indiana is 6-2 with a net rating of +5.7 at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. It’s obviously annoying hearing that “role players play better at home” in the playoffs, but you hear it often because it’s true. And it has been especially true with the Thunder. Just look at what happened in Game 2. Alex Caruso and Aaron Wiggins combined to go 9 for 18 from 3 for the Thunder, and I’m just not sure you can count on that happening again. Caruso shot only 34.1% from 3 on the road this season, and Wiggins has been a non-factor for most of the postseason.
If Shai Gilgeous-Alexander doesn’t have significant help in this game, it’s just hard to imagine Oklahoma City winning by margin. Part of that is because Indiana’s role players and bench players will be a little more comfortable in a sea of yellow. But that’s also true of Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam, who combined for only 32 points in Game 2. Those two should be able to get going again at home, and that’s especially true of Haliburton. The guard has been really good about reading defenses and being more prepared to attack them after a lousy outing.
It’s also worth noting that the Thunder haven’t been good in Game 3s themselves. Under Mark Daigneault, Oklahoma City is 2-3 straight-up and 1-4 against the spread in Game 3s. The team is also 1-3 both SU and ATS when tied in a series under Daigneault. But Rick Carlisle, one of the best game-by-game adjusters and X’s-and-O’s tacticians in the league, is 17-15 both SU and ATS when tied in a playoff series in his career. And I’d just be stunned if he doesn’t have Indiana ready to go after two lousy games in Oklahoma City, along with three poor performances in Game 3s to start these playoffs.
Perhaps an improved effort and a better game plan won’t be enough for the Pacers to win outright here, but 5.5 is a lot of points for a great home team to be getting. And while I don’t expect Indiana to win this series, I do think the Pacers will throw their best punches over the next couple of days.
Bet: Pacers +5.5 (-112 – 1.5 units) & Pacers ML (+185 – 0.5 units)
