On Friday, June 13th, the Indiana Pacers host the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 4 of the 2024-25 NBA Finals. Keep reading for odds, predictions and best bets for this exciting showdown, but make sure you also check out the VSiN NBA Finals Betting Hub for the rest of our written content. We have a ton of people breaking down the action. We’re also talking ball regularly on our live programming, so now is a great time to be a VSiN subscriber.
How To Watch Thunder vs. Pacers – Game 4
Where: Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana
When: 8:30 pm ET on Friday, June 13th
Channel: ABC
Thunder vs. Pacers Odds – Game 4
(Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook and accurate as of Thursday, June 12th at 10:30 pm ET)
Moneyline: Thunder -218, Pacers +180
Spread: Thunder -6 (-110), Pacers +6 (-110)
Total: Over 225.5 (-112), Under 225.5 (-108)
Thunder vs. Pacers Prediction – Game 4
As something of a Pacers truther, I’m tempted by Indiana and the points here. It just feels like the Pacers are starting to figure the Thunder out a bit, and I’m not sure that Game 3 result was a fluke. In fact, the Shot Quality Score in the game was Indiana 108, Oklahoma City 105. That was the first time all series that the Pacers won the Shot Quality battle, and I don’t think it’ll be the last. However, that Shot Quality Score in Game 3 revealed that the game rightfully went Under a total of 228. And when looking for a play in this pivotal Game 4, it’s hard not to like the Under again.
The Under has now hit in two of the three games these teams have played, which really isn’t all that surprising. From December 8th to the end of the regular season, the Pacers joined the Thunder as an elite defensive team. While Oklahoma City was first in the NBA in points allowed per 100 possessions (108.5) in that span, Indiana was seventh in the league (112.8). The Pacers have also consistently gotten stops throughout the postseason.
With Indiana playing at home now, it’s just hard to imagine Oklahoma City lighting up the scoreboard. While the Thunder have an offensive rating of 115.4 in the playoffs, that number is all the way down at 107.9 on the road. Oklahoma City’s supporting cast just hasn’t looked comfortable providing Shai Gilgeous-Alexander with help in difficult road environments. Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams actually combined to score 70 points in Game 3, but they did it on 24 for 53 shooting from the floor and 2 for 11 shooting from 3. The Thunder also got only 18 points from the bench in that game.
I wouldn’t be all that surprised if we see a much better effort from Oklahoma City offensively in Game 4. After all, the Thunder haven’t lost two games in a row in the playoffs, and that might not change now. But I do find it hard to envision a scenario in which Oklahoma City will set the nets on fire at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. And that’s ultimately enough for an Under play, as Indiana is also going to have a hard time consistently creating good looks against the best defense in basketball. Let’s not forget that the Pacers scored only 107 in Game 2, and they were getting shut down in Game 1 before the late-game flurry that changed the entire series.
These teams aren’t exactly playing fast in this series either. Through three games, Indiana has had 300 possessions and Oklahoma City has had 301, according to the NBA’s official tracking data. That’s off the breakneck pace these teams preferred to play at during the regular season, and I’d expect to see the Thunder slow things down even more in Game 4. It’s hard to get the Pacers to play at your pace. Maybe it’s in the name. But Oklahoma City’s best chance of stealing home-court advantage back is by walking the ball up, having Gilgeous-Alexander take his time running the offense and then having everybody sprint back to avoid easy buckets on the other end.
The Under also happens to be 13-11 when the Thunder are coming off an upset loss on the road under Mark Daigneault, and that says a lot about this team. Oklahoma City can generally be trusted to get back to its defensive roots after a sloppy outing, and I do think we’ll see that in this one.
Bet: Under 225.5 (-105)
