On Saturday, May 24th, the Minnesota Timberwolves host the Oklahoma City Thunder from the Target Center in a big Western Conference Finals Game 3. Keep reading for odds, predictions, player props and best bets for this exciting showdown, but make sure you also check out the VSiN NBA Playoffs Betting Hub for the rest of our written content. We have a ton of people breaking down the action this postseason. We’re also talking ball regularly on our live programming, so now is a great time to be a VSiN subscriber.
How To Watch Thunder vs. Timberwolves – Game 3
Where: Target Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota
When: 8:30 pm ET on Saturday, May 24th
Channel: ABC
Thunder vs. Timberwolves Odds – Game 3
(Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook and accurate as of Friday, May 23rd at 6:30 pm ET)
Moneyline: Thunder -142, Timberwolves +120
Spread: Thunder -2.5 (-112), Timberwolves +2.5 (-108)
Total: Over 218 (-112), Under 218 (-108)
Thunder vs. Timberwolves Prediction – Game 3
I’m not feeling great about my Wolves postseason futures. I gave out Minnesota to win the Western Conference at 14-1 and 20-1, and the team is as good as done with a loss in one of the next two games. I also backed the Timberwolves to cover in Games 1 and 2, so I have been getting hammered backing this Minnesota team. However, I am taking the Timberwolves in Game 3. The great Michael Scott taught me that you should always be ready to get hurt again.
It’s definitely hard not to react strongly to what we’ve seen in two games. Oklahoma City’s ability to pressure the ball and cause turnovers is out of this world. During the regular season, opponents turned the ball over 17.0 times per game against the Thunder, and that has gone up to 18.0 per game in the playoffs. And Minnesota is being extra careless with the basketball, which is only adding to all of it. However, the Timberwolves offense has been a little better than people think when it comes to generating good looks. In Game 1, the Thunder had 111.2 expected points, which was a bit higher than the Timberwolves’ 106.2. But in Game 2, Minnesota’s expected points of 116.1 was higher than Oklahoma City’s 113.7. The Timberwolves just didn’t take advantage of open looks in the paint, and they could have shot better on both open 3s and wide open 3s.
Heading back home should do wonders for Minnesota’s offense. Playing at the Target Center should mean more made shots for all of the Timberwolves role players, and it could also mean less turnovers. The Thunder are going to continue to pressure the ball and get up on the Timberwolves, and we’re also going to continue to see Oklahoma City playing passing lanes. But Minnesota won’t have to deal with a raucous Thunder crowd, taking away one of the elements that made things rough at the Paycom Center.
I also think we’ll see a role reversal for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Anthony Edwards. The former could struggle to replicate his 38-point performance from Game 2, and I’m not sure we’ll see him at the line 15 times like he was in that one. Gilgeous-Alexander also shot 14 free throws in Game 1, and that’s noteworthy because he only shot double-digit free throws in four of the previous 11 playoff games. He just shouldn’t get the same whistle in Game 3, especially with the league under significant heat for the way he’s being officiated this round. Meanwhile, Edwards can probably be counted on to shoot better than 23.5% from 3 the rest of the series. Sure, he was a better 3-point shooter on the road (42.9%) than he was at home (35.9%) during the regular season, but some positive regression is coming no matter what venue he plays in.
We should also see better performances from Rudy Gobert and Naz Reid eventually. Gobert has been getting crushed online for some defensive lowlights in Game 2, but his pick-and-roll defense hasn’t been nearly as bad as people have made it out to be. And realistically, his rim protection and length on the glass are needed against this Thunder team. As for Reid, he’s just way too good of a shooter to stay this cold. Reid is 0 for his last 14 from deep, despite the fact that he’s a 37.9% 3-point shooter. And if anybody can benefit from the return home, it’s him. He shot 40.9% from 3 in Minnesota during the regular season, and he was at 34.5% elsewhere.
Oklahoma City also happens to be just 1-3 against the spread in Game 3s under Mark Daigneault. And considering the success of the Zig Zag Theory in these playoffs, it definitely seems a little unlikely that the Wolves will fail to cover in back-to-back games after losses.
This is a game I think the Timberwolves win, as desperation will be at an all-time high. However, I ultimately decided to take the points because the moneyline price wasn’t right.
Best Bet: Timberwolves +3 (-110 – 2 units)
Thunder vs. Timberwolves Player Prop – Game 3
I’d definitely look at buying low on Reid. The Over on his 3-pointers made feels like a great bet. Before these last two games, Reid had made at least two 3s in six of Minnesota’s 10 postseason games. He also did so in three of the four home games he played. Reid is just a fantastic shooter, and he’s going to continue firing away. He took seven 3s in Game 1, and he then took another five in Game 2. Of course, it sucks that the misses are piling up, but you should never feel bad about taking an Over when the volume is there.
Lean: Reid Over 1.5 Made 3s (-145)
