On Thursday, May 22nd, the Oklahoma City Thunder host the Minnesota Timberwolves for Game 2 of the Western Conference Finals from the Paycom Center. Keep reading for odds, predictions and best bets for this exciting showdown, but make sure you also check out the VSiN NBA Playoffs Betting Hub for the rest of our written content. We have a ton of people breaking down the action this postseason. We’re also talking ball regularly on our live programming, so now is a great time to be a VSiN subscriber.
How To Watch Timberwolves vs. Thunder – Game 2
Where: Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
When: 8:30 pm ET on Thursday, May 22nd
Channel: ESPN
Timberwolves vs. Thunder Odds – Game 2
(Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook and accurate as of Wednesday, May 21st at 4:30 pm ET)
Moneyline: Thunder -325, Timberwolves +260
Spread: Thunder -7.5 (-115), Timberwolves +7.5 (-105)
Total: Over 214.5 (-110), Under 214.5 (-110)
Timberwolves vs. Thunder Prediction – Game 2
Like many others that were watching Game 1, I got tired of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the league MVP, throwing himself to the ground to get to the free throw line. However, it’s hard to blame him for doing so. The NBA officials did a good job of discouraging that type of constant grifting through the first two rounds, but it was clear early in the series opener that they were going to be quick with the whistle. So, Gilgeous-Alexander was wise to attack the basket relentlessly, and he’ll surely see if he can get away with more of that in Game 2. My guess is that he won’t. Chris Finch is going to send the league Game 1 film and demand more consistency from the officials on both ends of the floor. As bad as it is to watch Gilgeous-Alexander hunt cheap opportunities to get to the charity stripe, the Thunder also get away with murder defensively. At some point, the referees will make some changes and ease up on the Wolves a bit. These playoffs have been physical for weeks, and people have been raving about the product. The NBA can’t get away from that now.
All complaints aside, the Timberwolves didn’t lose Game 1 because of the officiating. Minnesota lost because the team was careless with the basketball and settled for awful shots. People have said it all year long, but Oklahoma City was historically good defensively this season. And even in shaky moments in the first two rounds, the Thunder continued to play elite-level defense. It was the offense that stalled out. And one of the things this Oklahoma City team can do is turn you over — and score off those turnovers.
Since the start of the playoffs, the Thunder’s opponents are averaging 18.3 turnovers per game. That’s the highest mark in the postseason, by far. Oklahoma City was also the second-best transition offense (121.1 points per 100 possessions) in the league this year, so you simply can’t afford to cough the ball up against this group. Well, the Timberwolves turned it over 19 times in Game 1, and the Thunder scored 31 points off turnovers. Minnesota also got sucked into taking a ton of 3s in the game, shooting 51 in the loss. That was 30 more than Oklahoma City took, and the Wolves only made 15 of those 51 attempts.
The message will be clear for the Timberwolves in Game 2. They simply can’t afford to turn the ball over. Minnesota had a four-point lead at halftime, and pretty much everything looked good for the first 24 minutes. The Timberwolves were defending their butts off, they were knocking down 3s and their shot diet was a little better than it was in the second half. But Minnesota had a few key turnovers in that first half, and that was the reason the team wasn’t up a lot more. Then, it was all bad in the second half. Well, you’d have to think the Wolves will learn their lesson when watching the film. They can’t make careless passes and they can’t put the ball down for no good reason.
Minnesota also needs to be better about attacking the basket. The Thunder allowed opponents to take 39.3 triples per game in the regular season, and that was by design. They pack the paint, force you into settling for decent-looking shots and then turn those decent looks into bad ones with their ability to contest. The Timberwolves need to be a little better about knowing which looks are worth taking, and they have to make an effort to drive to the rim and move off the ball. A lot of that will fall on Anthony Edwards. With the refs calling the game the way they were in Game 1, Edwards definitely should have looked to drive a lot more. But either way, he’ll need to do so the rest of the way. There are opportunities for him to finish at the rim or get to the line himself. And doing that will open things up for his teammates.
Finch also needs to make better lineup decisions. Minnesota was only -2 in the 21 minutes Rudy Gobert played. Sure, there will be moments in which Gobert’s lack of offensive ability will seem like it’s hurting you against a talented opponent. But Gobert’s rim protection got to Gilgeous-Alexander, and his presence on the boards simply made the Timberwolves competitive. One of Minnesota’s edges over Oklahoma City is size inside. Finch can’t get suckered into playing small.
Of course, a lot of that was negative for the Timberwolves, and it can be hard to trust that things will look better in Game 2. But Minnesota played a miserable Game 1 against Golden State last round, and the team responded to win by 24 in Game 2. And considering how many of the Timberwolves’ wounds were self inflicted, there’s no reason they can’t clean things up and give the Thunder a game in Game 2. Also, for as questionable as the shot selection for Minnesota was, the team is going to shoot better from 3 in this series. Mike Conley, Naz Reid, Donte DiVincenzo and Nickeil Alexander-Walker were a combined 6 for 33 in Game 1. All four of those guys shot at least 37% from 3 during the regular season, so it’s hard to imagine the shooting being that bad again. NBA Game Report — a must-follow account on X — had the Timberwolves -10.8 on expected points on wide open 3s versus actual points. And overall in the game, they had Oklahoma City at 111.2 expected points and Minnesota at 106.2. That’s much closer than the 114-88 final suggests.
All in all, the Thunder turned things on in the second half, looking like the awesome regular-season team they were. But there are still plenty of reasons to doubt Oklahoma City’s offense, and we saw a lot of that in the first half. This just isn’t a good half-court offense right now. So, if Minnesota can stay out of its own way, we should still see a competitive series. And the Thunder are going to get the Timberwolves’ best shot in Game 2.
Bet: Timberwolves +8 (-114 – 1.5 units) & Timberwolves ML (+265 – 0.5 units)
