The Raptors are coming off a tough year, finishing with a 25-57 record — and their worst winning percentage since the 2010-2011 season. Moving in the wrong direction forced the organization’s hand in dealing Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby, key contributors to the 2019 championship run, signaling a rebuild around Scottie Barnes. At Media Day, the Raptors acknowledged the need for patience, emphasizing that this project could be a long one. Despite this, Toronto’s talent makes the team unlikely to bottom out.
Barnes, who signed a five-year, $224 million deal in July, posted impressive stats last season: 19.9 points, 8.2 rebounds, 6.1 assists, 1.5 blocks and 1.3 steals per game. A versatile forward with length, Barnes can score in multiple ways and is an exceptional passer. His defense has been a work in progress, but given his college tape, there’s optimism he’ll improve. His shooting also saw a notable uptick, going from 30.1% from 3 as a rookie to 34.1% last season (on nearly five attempts per game).
The Raptors also strengthened their roster by acquiring Immanuel Quickley and RJ Barrett from New York in the Anunoby trade. Quickley averaged 18.6 points and 6.8 assists in 38 games for Toronto, positioning himself as the likely long-term answer at point guard. His scoring ability, especially from deep, combined with his shifty driving and world-class floater, makes him a key player alongside Barnes. The team clearly liked what it saw, as Quickley was inked to a fat new deal after the season. Meanwhile, Barrett, a Canadian native, thrived after returning home, averaging 21.8 points, 6.4 rebounds and 4.1 assists per game while shooting an efficient 55.3% from the field and 39.2% from 3. Barrett’s improved shooting makes him a promising fit for Toronto moving forward, especially after his strong showing at the Paris Olympics.
A significant reason for optimism lies in the synergy between Barnes, Quickley, Barrett and center Jakob Poeltl. When these four shared the court last year, Toronto outscored opponents by 11.5 points per 100 possessions, a notable stat despite their limited minutes together. If that core group can build on that success, the Raptors could exceed expectations and compete for a Play-In spot.
Just how much Toronto outperforms expectations will depend on the performances of Gradey Dick and rookie Ja’Kobe Walter, the team’s most recent first-round investments. The Raptors need more firepower on the wing, and both young players have the potential to deliver. Dick, despite an up-and-down rookie year, has the size and shooting ability to thrive in a complementary role. His off-ball movement and shooting could make him a valuable asset alongside Toronto’s top players. Walter, who missed training camp due to a shoulder injury, is also a good shooter and a feisty defender, which should bolster the Raptors’ depth.
In addition to these emerging talents, the Raptors’ bench looks solid. Veteran Kelly Olynyk, known for anchoring strong second units, brings floor-spacing and playmaking ability. Meanwhile, Davion Mitchell, eager to prove himself after a disappointing stint in Sacramento, adds relentless point-of-attack defense and some sneaky offensive potential. Chris Boucher, a lengthy shot-blocker with 3-point range, can also contribute in short spurts. Even rookies Jamal Shead and Jonathan Mogbo can help. Shead is an awesome defender and a great table setter on offense.
The team’s underrated roster is guided by head coach Darko Rajokovic, who arrived with high expectations after successful stints as an assistant with the Suns and Grizzlies. Rajokovic is considered a basketball genius with a bright future, and though his first year was rocky, there’s belief he’ll be the guy that guides this team forward.
Despite modest expectations, this Raptors team has the potential to surprise. With a solid core, emerging young talent and an innovative coach, Toronto might overachieve and make more noise than anticipated this season.
Raptors Win Total Prediction
While Toronto’s front office executives and players downplayed the team’s expectations for this season, this is not your standard rebuilding team. And the moves the Raptors have made over the last two years prove that. They could have prioritized youth and picks in the Anunoby deal, but they traded for two players that are firmly in their primes. They also moved valuable draft assets to bring in Poeltl, an elite rim protector that will be 29 when the season starts. Sure, Toronto might not be thinking about a championship, but this is a team that can and will be competitive. I’m going Over 29.5 games and honestly think they’ll be closer to 35 than 30.
Bet: Over 29.5 Wins (-120)
